Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[sleaterkinney]

Flanker, innit? 20 tons of Siberian titanium. They probably just shoved the wing tip rail into the MQ-9's prop which is made of carbon fibre and would have disintegrated immediately.

It does show how this thing can escalate in stupid and unpredictable ways as Biden is sleepwalking us into WW3.

Russia is being beaten back by an army without most of NATOs capabilities, they are not going to pick that fight.

 

[kebabking]

Russia is being beaten back by an army without most of NATOs capabilities, they are not going to pick that fight.

Much as I would like that to be true - this stuff isn't a mathematical equation with solid data going in and a solid answer coming out.

We've already seen that Putin reads, and believes, some pretty whacky shit - that the Ukrainian mil are going to stage a coup against Zelensky, and the population of Kyiv are going to throw white roses onto the road in front of Russian tanks. we know that he's got a massive hard-on for the Baltic states, which he thinks are just bits of Russia that Gorbachev and Yeltsin abandoned, and we know that he genuinely believes that the West (possessed by Satan, obvs) is desperate to destroy Russian power so we can occupy a few billion hectares of tundra and birch forest, steal tractor factories and turn all those manly Russian men who ride bears at the weekend into Transgender fashion designers.

The converse of that however is that every time Moscow has spewed forth it's rage and spleen about some western policy, threatening dire - world ending - consequences if it's warnings aren't heeded, absolutely fuck all happens.

GMLRS to Ukraine - terrifying vengeance.

SAM's to Ukraine - appalling bloodshed.

Tanks to Ukraine - fearful revenge.

Finland joining NATO - war.

And yet...


I think it's fair to say that a conflict between NATO and Russia would be amusingly one sided, but I think the idea that we can safely judge what he would and wouldn't do based on what we think is unwise.

 

[Pickman's model]

Russia is being beaten back by an army without most of NATOs capabilities, they are not going to pick that fight.

Yeh there's a lot of wishful thinking in that post. Sure, the russians only have a presence in a small part of Ukraine, far from what they aimed for. But they don't atm show much sign of being er beaten back out of it do they

 

[Pickman's model]

Much as I would like that to be true - this stuff isn't a mathematical equation with solid data going in and a solid answer coming out.

We've already seen that Putin reads, and believes, some pretty whacky shit - that the Ukrainian mil are going to stage a coup against Zelensky, and the population of Kyiv are going to throw white roses onto the road in front of Russian tanks. we know that he's got a massive hard-on for the Baltic states, which he thinks are just bits of Russia that Gorbachev and Yeltsin abandoned, and we know that he genuinely believes that the West (possessed by Satan, obvs) is desperate to destroy Russian power so we can occupy a few billion hectares of tundra and birch forest, steal tractor factories and turn all those manly Russian men who ride bears at the weekend into Transgender fashion designers.

The converse of that however is that every time Moscow has spewed forth it's rage and spleen about some western policy, threatening dire - world ending - consequences if it's warnings aren't heeded, absolutely fuck all happens.

GMLRS to Ukraine - terrifying vengeance.

SAM's to Ukraine - appalling bloodshed.

Tanks to Ukraine - fearful revenge.

Finland joining NATO - war.

And yet...
View attachment 366973

I think it's fair to say that a conflict between NATO and Russia would be amusingly one sided, but I think the idea that we can safely judge what he would and wouldn't do based on what we think is unwise.

A war between Russia and nato perhaps. But Russia and China v nato? Not so fun

 

[sleaterkinney]

I think it's fair to say that a conflict between NATO and Russia would be amusingly one sided, but I think the idea that we can safely judge what he would and wouldn't do based on what we think is unwise.

He annexed Crimea, invaded the Donbas, interfered in Syria and the west still gave him stuff like Nordstream. I think he miscalculated on Ukrainian resistance and the willingness of the west to step in.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Yeh there's a lot of wishful thinking in that post. Sure, the russians only have a presence in a small part of Ukraine, far from what they aimed for. But they don't atm show much sign of being er beaten back out of it do they

You are kidding right?. They’re launching their conscripts into human wave attacks and firing missiles at apartment blocks.

 

[Pickman's model]

He annexed Crimea, invaded the Donbas, interfered in Syria and the west still gave him stuff like Nordstream. I think he miscalculated on Ukrainian resistance and the willingness of the west to step in.

To be fair he's hardly alone in interfering in Syria. Turkey for instance has done some really dubious shit there.

 

[Pickman's model]

You are kidding right?. They’re launching their conscripts into human wave attacks and firing missiles at apartment blocks.

Yes. And yet the front line isn't much changed in six months. E2a that's a really shitty post, with your whataboutery and that

 

[StoneRoad]

It looks like they should send more Moscovites. They look really hard to kill for some reason.

also, they are a lower proportion of the mobiks

 

[sleaterkinney]

Yes. And yet the front line isn't much changed in six months. E2a that's a really shitty post, with your whataboutery and that

No, they are examples of desperate tactics because the war is not going their way.

 

[Pickman's model]

No, they are examples of desperate tactics because the war is not going their way.

Yet they are not being beaten back no matter how desperately you wish this to be the case. They've been bombing apartment blocks since pretty much day 1, it's clearly not the tactic of desperation you wish it to be

 

[ska invita]

the russians only have a presence in a small part of Ukraine, far from what they aimed for.

Its all the coast and then some, its not that small a part. Ukraine becoming permanently landlocked would be an enormous change .

Also likely they aimed for regime change not full territorial occupation

 

[Dogsauce]

Its all the coast and then some, its not that small a part. Ukraine becoming permanently landlocked would be an enormous change .

Also likely they aimed for regime change not full territorial occupation

Regime change would have given them effective full occupation, as with Belarus at the moment. Full client state with half the population running away to Poland.

 

[Rimbaud]

Yes. And yet the front line isn't much changed in six months. E2a that's a really shitty post, with your whataboutery and that

I was under the impression that Ukraine is focusing on holding the line and replenishing their forces throughout the winter and letting Russian forces thin themselves out attacking them before launching a spring offensive.

It does seem that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut is starting to run out of steam. I would wait and see how Ukraine's spring offensive goes before declaring it a stalemate.

 

[Chz]

also, they are a lower proportion of the mobiks

 

[strung out]

Its all the coast and then some, its not that small a part. Ukraine becoming permanently landlocked would be an enormous change .

Also likely they aimed for regime change not full territorial occupation

Didn't realise Russia had suddenly occupied and annexed Odessa and Mykolaiv overnight.

 

[Pickman's model]

I was under the impression that Ukraine is focusing on holding the line and replenishing their forces throughout the winter and letting Russian forces thin themselves out attacking them before launching a spring offensive.

It does seem that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut is starting to run out of steam. I would wait and see how Ukraine's spring offensive goes before declaring it a stalemate.

I don't myself think it is a stalemate, and should I change my mind I'll let you know. The Ukrainians are very vocal that absent western weaponry they'll be right in the shit - they've been firing shit off faster than it can be produced. Sure, the russians have their own supply issues. But the almost complete reliance on western aid means the ukrainian ability to prosecute the war depends on things that are out of their hands.

Just as one example, at the moment it's been reported the Americans are watching China closely for signs of preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. If that happens, whatever promises have been made to Ukraine, you'll see American weapons going to American forces and Ukraine being somewhere at the back.

So while things are evenly poised now, this could easily change - the russians might develop new practices, the Ukrainians could receive new weaponry - the current impasse won't continue indefinitely, which is why I don't consider it a stalemate.

 

[Rimbaud]

I don't myself think it is a stalemate, and should I change my mind I'll let you know. The Ukrainians are very vocal that absent western weaponry they'll be right in the shit - they've been firing shit off faster than it can be produced. Sure, the russians have their own supply issues. But the almost complete reliance on western aid means the ukrainian ability to prosecute the war depends on things that are out of their hands.

Just as one example, at the moment it's been reported the Americans are watching China closely for signs of preparation for an invasion of Taiwan. If that happens, whatever promises have been made to Ukraine, you'll see American weapons going to American forces and Ukraine being somewhere at the back.

So while things are evenly poised now, this could easily change - the russians might develop new practices, the Ukrainians could receive new weaponry - the current impasse won't continue indefinitely, which is why I don't consider it a stalemate.

Fair enough, nothing to disagree with there.

 

[Yossarian]

Russian pilots honoured for fuel-pissing services to the fatherland

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/17/1164156844/russia-awards-pilots-involved-in-confrontation-with-a-u-s-drone-over-black-sea

 

[Bingoman]

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for putjn

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for putjn

Hah, he's for it now!

 

[Bingoman]

International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for PUTIN

The International Criminal court has today issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin over his barbaric invasion of Ukraine.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Bingoman]

Hah, he's for it now!

He has said he doesn't recognise the court

 

[emanymton]

Hah, he's for it now!

Yeah, you don't mess with the international chamber of commerce.

 

[Chz]

He has said he doesn't recognise the court

ICC raises its fake glasses and waggles its eyebrows...
"Recognise me now?"

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

He has said he doesn't recognise the court

Dang! Smooth move. Wish I'd thought of saying that at Bracknell Magistrates!

 

[bluescreen]

He has said he doesn't recognise the court

International FOTLer

 

[Yossarian]

He has said he doesn't recognise the court

I didn't know all that Freeman on the Land shit had reached Russia

 

[DaveCinzano]

He refuses to admit to attempting to overthrow the Ukrainian government but may come unstuck if he's asked his position on throwing it over

 

[Bingoman]

The guest on sky news has said there moves to get Russia removed from the UN security council