Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[ska invita]

This English language BBC?

Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells BBC

Kyrylo Budanov says neither side can make significant advances, and eyes advanced Western weapons.

www.bbc.com

When you posted the Russian one I wondered if it was because the Russian one said something different but it doesn't

googling fail thanks

ETA: I spelt his name wrong is why - doh

 

[The39thStep]

CEPA- The Center for European Policy Analysis (based in Washington DC of course ) very explicit in their view of the benefit of cost effective investment and value for money issues. Again nothing really controversial or that we don't know about but explicitly put.

It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia

The cost-benefit analysis of US support for Ukraine is incontrovertible. It’s producing wins at almost every level.

cepa.org

 

[Nylock]

true - he's clearly a bulwark of a man whose time has come
weird world

McConnell is a greasy, weasely, spineless opportunist who's morality is as flexible as his interpretations of us constitutional law. If it suddenly became in his best political interests to side with the far right, you can safely bet that he'd be the strongest advocate for erecting internment camps and enacting forcible deportations.

 

[clusterfarce]

US is talking about sending Bradleys to Ukraine. These are 3 man crewed with 5/6 troops as mounted infantry fighting vehicles.
They will have modern western night fighting systems and communications. Fast, mobile (i.e. have a low ground pressure so can cross pretty muddy terrain) and a proven track record in fighting Soviet equipment. Much easier to maintain than a western tank and the Ukrainians have been using small number of systems based on them.
They will be old, strored systems from the 80s. But still a huge leap for Ukraine and at least as good as the more modern BMP-3s Russia uses.

 

[CNT36]

resposting from a different thread

good to hear it out in the open
whether a Russian February offensive or new Ukrainian arms make any difference is impossible to know but I expect this grind is basically it.

ETA: heres the translation

"ÐÑ ÑейÑÐ°Ñ Ð½Ðµ можем Ð¸Ñ ÑазгÑомиÑÑ, они Ð½Ð°Ñ Ñоже". ÐнÑеÑвÑÑ Ðи-би-Ñи Ñ Ð½Ð°ÑалÑником военной Ñазведки УкÑÐ°Ð¸Ð½Ñ ÐиÑиллом ÐÑдановÑм - BBC News Ð ÑÑÑÐºÐ°Ñ ÑлÑжба

ÐиÑилл ÐÑданов ÑÑиÑаеÑ, ÑÑо ни одна из ÑÑоÑон пока не Ð¼Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÑ Ð´Ð¾Ð±Ð¸ÑÑÑÑ Ð·Ð½Ð°ÑиÑелÑнÑÑ ÑÑпеÑов, и Ð¶Ð´ÐµÑ Ð¿Ð¾ÑÑавок ÑовÑеменного западного оÑÑжиÑ.

www-bbc-com.translate.goog

Tbf it may be accurate but the lad's job is to bullshit the enemy.

 

[spitfire]

Tbf it may be accurate but the lad's job is to bullshit the enemy.

And prophecies of doom will help drum up new kit from the yanks.

 

[existentialist]

And prophecies of doom will help drum up new kit from the yanks.

Yeah, all the Russian disinformation might be blatant and probably not aimed at us, but we have to remember that we are at the downstream end of an information pipeline, and some of it is very well managed. Almost in the same way as one can take anything said by Russian sources and assume that what happened was the opposite, Ukraine has been very good at doing the "look, over there!" thing while sneakily getting on with something else (eg Kharkiv advance). The information space mirrors the battle space: brute force vs agility and subtlety.

 

[ska invita]

the US and UK can see perfectly well for themselves what is happening, as can the Russians
theyre not getting their intelligence from briefings to the BBC

 

[existentialist]

the US and UK can see perfectly well for themselves what is happening, as can the Russians
theyre not getting their intelligence from briefings to the BBC

They might, but we're not. Well, not to the same extent.

 

[StoneRoad]

They might, but we're not. Well, not to the same extent.

Which is why I look at the ISW maps & reports. often in preference to some of the "official" reportage.

 

[spitfire]

the US and UK can see perfectly well for themselves what is happening, as can the Russians
theyre not getting their intelligence from briefings to the BBC

You're not wrong but stuff like this also goes to politicians and people that have influence and maybe not access to the higher levels of int. that the 3 letter agencies have.

 

[CNT36]

And prophecies of doom will help drum up new kit from the yanks.

I almost edited to add and pals.

 

[spitfire]

I almost edited to add and pals.

Yes I should have added that but at the mo I think it is mainly the yanks long range stuff they want (and German Leopards).

But they'll take whatever is going, I would.

* insert house based analogy here, something about cups of sugar probably *

 

[keybored]

Ukraine's MoD seems adamant there will be another wave of mobilisation and martial law declared in Russia within the next week, makes a New Year's message imploring Russians to resist. How many will be able to watch it though?

 

[Pickman's model]

the US and UK can see perfectly well for themselves what is happening, as can the Russians
theyre not getting their intelligence from briefings to the BBC

Yeh the russians can see perfectly well what's going on, which is why they're responding so ably to the situation

 

[Serge Forward]

Bulgakov blackballed.

‘Propaganda literature’: calls to close Mikhail Bulgakov museum in Kyiv

 

[clusterfarce]

This is an artillery war. Which is true of any major mechanised land war since 1914 that lasts more than a month. The next year or two years will be all about who can get more rounds on target (the last comment due to the super accuracy of some US rounds meaning they can do more damage than a small Russian barrage). Stocks have been heavily drawn upon on both sides while the production has been modest. This video gives a one hour over view on the current on the race to find or produce rounds.

The short answer is the longer the war goes on the more western industrial capacity will really tell in this field. So unless China starts selling to Russia, there is very likely a time limit under Putins ability to wage war.
So this may explain rumours of another mobilisation that there is a big offensive in the offing before the artillery advantage from Ukraine becomes decisive (there is another theory that Russia has a plan for 3 month call ups to train and then rotate troops so those still training get sent to the front and another batch get called up in Jan for a sutainable numeric advantage).
But at some point, Shoigu may have to walk into Putins office and explain that there is only one option left. This worries me.

 

[StoneRoad]

It's not just the ammo, and it's accuracy / range, important as those are ...

Firing rounds, especially "old" ammo, wears the inside of the barrel.
There will come a point when the older stuff fails eg premature detonations more frequently.
and barrel wear reduces accuracy below even the already low level.

High precision missiles are being used up faster than russia can replenish the stocks, on bombing the civilian energy infratructure ...
[apart from the several thousand S-300 rounds - although in a ground to ground scenario, these are not especially accuarte nor long-range]

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Russia can’t produce high precision ones cos sanctions.

Xi won’t flog any munitions, he knows that the sanctions will fall hard as hell if so much as one Chinese bullet comes from a Russian gun.

Looks like it will drag on with many more lives lost and shattered needlessly, there will only be one final outcome though, Russia will lose and Vlad will either need to die or pull off some almighty blag to stay in power. Anything less than his removal and a total change in the way the country operates means the sanctions remain. Even when lifted they will find that Europe no longer needs their gas and oil, that’ll be a permanent thing. Reparations will also be demanded. The future for Russia is bleak as.

 

[ska invita]

A territorial "stand off" (a term which sounds way too much like it involves no death and suffering) based on using up all Russian weaponry would last how long before arms run out? None of us can say with any certainty, but supposedly Ukrainian use rate also exceeds production rates from NATO...then there are unknown factors like a possible Republican win in the USA.

I doubt any of us are informed enough to really know (especially me) but Im sceptical that this war can be won by Ukraine due to Russia running out of arms.

 

[The39thStep]

A territorial "stand off" (a term which sounds way too much like it involves no death and suffering) based on using up all Russian weaponry would last how long before arms run out? None of us can say with any certainty, but supposedly Ukrainian use rate also exceeds production rates from NATO...then there are unknown factors like a possible Republican win in the USA.

I doubt any of us are informed enough to really know (especially me) but Im sceptical that this war can be won by Ukraine due to Russia running out of arms.

The Aussie gamer who does those long Youtube videos thinks they can if there is the political will

 

[Spymaster]

A territorial "stand off" (a term which sounds way too much like it involves no death and suffering) based on using up all Russian weaponry would last how long before arms run out? None of us can say with any certainty, but supposedly Ukrainian use rate also exceeds production rates from NATO...then there are unknown factors like a possible Republican win in the USA.

I doubt any of us are informed enough to really know (especially me) but Im sceptical that this war can be won by Ukraine due to Russia running out of arms.

Indeed. It's not like Russia only has the weapons in it's arsenals now, and are going to quit when they're expended. They're still making the stuff with gusto, and buying more from elsewhere. They might slow down a bit but they're never going to run-out.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Indeed. It's not like Russia only has the weapons in it's arsenals now, and are going to quit when they're expended. They're still making the stuff with gusto, and buying more from elsewhere. They might slow down a bit but they're never going to run-out.

By elsewhere you mean North Korea, that who is apparently supplying basic munitions such as bullets now.

Russia will eventually run out, but it's a fair way off and there will be a huge amount of suffering and death before that happens.

The US will not run out of ammo, they keep enough bullets to ensure each non-US person on earth is allocated 5, to make sure they are proper dead.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Even when lifted they will find that Europe no longer needs their gas and oil, that’ll be a permanent thing. Reparations will also be demanded. The future for Russia is bleak as.

I'm not so sure. We may have found alternative supplies, but it's costing a lot more. I could see plenty of countries being willing to buy it if sanctions were lifted and starts to bring prices back down.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I'm not so sure. We may have found alternative supplies, but it's costing a lot more. I could see plenty of countries being willing to buy it if sanctions were lifted and starts to bring prices back down.

The main customer was Germany, they'd bet pretty much their entire energy future on Russian fossil fuels. In December they got LNG processing terminals operational, it may cost more to get it from Qatar by ship, but the lesson will certainly have been learned not to allow yourself to be beholden to a nuclear state with a lunatic in charge.

 

[Spymaster]

By elsewhere you mean North Korea, that who is apparently supplying basic munitions such as bullets now.

Russia will eventually run out, but it's a fair way off and there will be a huge amount of suffering and death before that happens.

The US will not run out of ammo, they keep enough bullets to ensure each non-US person on earth is allocated 5, to make sure they are proper dead.

Iran and some of the 'stans are the obvious ones, but corrupt cunts in China and possibly India will likely be slipping them stuff through the back door for (more than) a few quid.

I seriously doubt that Russia will run out of bang-stuff anytime soon.

 

[Artaxerxes]

They won't run out but they will start to get increasingly shoddy munitions and probably need to ration stuff. They also need to ensure a supply of all the extras that go with modern warfare and smarter, better, kit.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Iran and some of the 'stans are the obvious ones, but corrupt cunts in China and possibly India will likely be slipping them stuff through the back door for (more than) a few quid.

I seriously doubt that Russia will run out of bang-stuff anytime soon.

Sure, the Iranian drones appear to be actually made in Tajikistan ffs, would make Del Boy blush.

 

[strung out]

Iran and some of the 'stans are the obvious ones, but corrupt cunts in China and possibly India will likely be slipping them stuff through the back door for (more than) a few quid.

I seriously doubt that Russia will run out of bang-stuff anytime soon.

There's not much evidence for any of that so far, it's not hard to trace the original sources via captured ammunition and shell/other munitions fragments.

In fact, NATO is doing a pretty good job of buying up as much Soviet era/caliber ammunition as they can to supply to Ukraine - eg ammunition manufactured recently in Iran has turned up on the front lines for Ukraine:



Plus this stuff from Sudan:



Don't think there's any evidence of Chinese, Indian, North Korean etc. equivalents turning up for Russia.

 

[strung out]

There's not much evidence for any of that so far, it's not hard to trace the original sources via captured ammunition and shell/other munitions fragments.

In fact, NATO is doing a pretty good job of buying up as much Soviet era/caliber ammunition as they can to supply to Ukraine - eg ammunition manufactured recently in Iran has turned up on the front lines for Ukraine:



Plus this stuff from Sudan:



Don't think there's any evidence of Chinese, Indian, North Korean etc. equivalents turning up for Russia.

And now Ukraine has somehow got hold of ammunition from Pakistan.