Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[agricola]

I'm not so sure. We may have found alternative supplies, but it's costing a lot more. I could see plenty of countries being willing to buy it if sanctions were lifted and starts to bring prices back down.

Especially as that (sanctions relief) is going to be part of any peace deal.

 

[Pickman's model]

Russia can’t produce high precision ones cos sanctions.

Xi won’t flog any munitions, he knows that the sanctions will fall hard as hell if so much as one Chinese bullet comes from a Russian gun.

Looks like it will drag on with many more lives lost and shattered needlessly, there will only be one final outcome though, Russia will lose and Vlad will either need to die or pull off some almighty blag to stay in power. Anything less than his removal and a total change in the way the country operates means the sanctions remain. Even when lifted they will find that Europe no longer needs their gas and oil, that’ll be a permanent thing. Reparations will also be demanded. The future for Russia is bleak as.

Well let's see how things look in 364 days when the world may be a rather different place

 

[A380]

Putin didn’t read the rule of ‘don’t start a war with someone who makes more cars than you’.

 

[Supine]

Putin didn’t read the rule of ‘don’t start a war with someone who makes more cars than you’.

If your going to punch someone make sure they can’t punch you back. Pretty sure i learnt that in karate lessons as s kid. Might have been a karate kid movie

 

[gosub]

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

This study of the early phases of the 2022 war sheds light on Ukraine's strengths and vulnerabilities, and the need for further Western support.

rusi.org

 

[Pickman's model]

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022

This study of the early phases of the 2022 war sheds light on Ukraine's strengths and vulnerabilities, and the need for further Western support.

rusi.org

Perhaps you could say something about this document

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Heard on the radio this morning that HIMAR strikes have a hit a school the Russians were using as a base, killing potentialy hundreds. Not a great start to the year for the Russians.

 

[existentialist]

Heard on the radio this morning that HIMAR strikes have a hit a school the Russians were using as a base, killing potentialy hundreds. Not a great start to the year for the Russians.

The Ukrainian report for today lists 720 Russian casualties, presumably including the 600 or so thought to have been lost in that attack.

 

[clusterfarce]

Heard on the radio this morning that HIMAR strikes have a hit a school the Russians were using as a base, killing potentialy hundreds. Not a great start to the year for the Russians.

They billeted hundreds of soldiers in a group of buildings they were using as an ammo dump in range of Ukrainian's very accurate US rockets. Every time Ukraine over runs territory, video emerges of Russian living conditions. Their soldiers live like feral teenagers, which is what some of them are. There is no self discipline and little to no enforced cleanliness discipline among them at the enlisted level and that same slothful laxness seems to seep through large parts of their land forces. Having to move the ammo somewhere else as the buildings were needed for people was just too much work. Now Ukraine seems to have gotten an ammo dump, an equipment park and a billet of perhaps a battalions worth of soldiers in one go.

All because from at least colonel level down, none of the officers or NCOs really gave enough of a shit to move the ammo to where it was properly covered and in a safe storage space.

 

[A380]

They billeted hundreds of soldiers in a group of buildings they were using as an ammo dump in range of Ukrainian's very accurate US rockets. Every time Ukraine over runs territory, video emerges of Russian living conditions. Their soldiers live like feral teenagers, which is what some of them are. There is no self discipline and little to no enforced cleanliness discipline among them at the enlisted level and that same slothful laxness seems to seep through large parts of their land forces. Having to move the ammo somewhere else as the buildings were needed for people was just too much work. Now Ukraine seems to have gotten an ammo dump, an equipment park and a billet of perhaps a battalions worth of soldiers in one go.

All because from at least colonel level down, none of the officers or NCOs really gave enough of a shit to move the ammo to where it was properly covered and in a safe storage space.

Poor fuckers.

 

[existentialist]

Poor fuckers.

Innit.

In one way I'm pleased: ultimately, the only way this war will stop is when Russia runs out of men and/or materiel, and anything that hastens that is to the good. But it's also 600 lives lost, 600 human beings who lived and loved (with maybe some laughing) who are now dead. 600 sons, brothers, husbands, lovers, etc.

It has to happen - the alternative is far worse - but it's such a waste. And I imagine that it has so much momentum that, even if someone could do the decent thing and put a bullet through Putin's head, that wouldn't be enough to stop it.

 

[SpookyFrank]

They billeted hundreds of soldiers in a group of buildings they were using as an ammo dump in range of Ukrainian's very accurate US rockets. Every time Ukraine over runs territory, video emerges of Russian living conditions. Their soldiers live like feral teenagers, which is what some of them are. There is no self discipline and little to no enforced cleanliness discipline among them at the enlisted level and that same slothful laxness seems to seep through large parts of their land forces. Having to move the ammo somewhere else as the buildings were needed for people was just too much work. Now Ukraine seems to have gotten an ammo dump, an equipment park and a billet of perhaps a battalions worth of soldiers in one go.

All because from at least colonel level down, none of the officers or NCOs really gave enough of a shit to move the ammo to where it was properly covered and in a safe storage space.

I'm not a military man but I would think that billeting of troops and storage of munitions would traditionally be done in separate places.

 

[LDC]

Anyone know how this compares to largest single losses in one attack in recent years? Surely this is the largest single loss of life in a single military action for ages?

(My post work and NYE brain isn't working well very, so apoloigies if I've missed an obvious one.)

 

[JimW]

Anyone know how this compares to largest single losses in one attack in recent years? Surely this is the largest single loss of life in a single military action for ages?

(My post work and NYE brain isn't working well very, so apoloigies if I've missed an obvious one.)

Ship going down like the belgrano seems the only other possibility

 

[maomao]

Anyone know how this compares to largest single losses in one attack in recent years? Surely this is the largest single loss of life in a single military action for ages?

(My post work and NYE brain isn't working well very, so apoloigies if I've missed an obvious one.)

9/11

 

[maomao]

The Russians are claiming 63 dead and the Ukrainians about 400 so probably somewhere inbetween.

 

[existentialist]

That figure of 600 is looking a bit speculative. Russia is admitting to 63 dead (which you can definitely AT LEAST double), others are bandying around figures of 1000.

We probably won't know for a long time, perhaps not even until after the war.

 

[existentialist]

Ship going down like the belgrano seems the only other possibility

The bombing of the theatre in Mariupol is claimed to have taken around 600 lives. Given what Russia is doing there now (basically, covering up all of the evidence), we may well never know how many sheltering civilians, including kids, died there.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Couple of interesting quotes here.

Although access to Russian-controlled areas is restricted, a number of Russian commentators and bloggers acknowledged the attack - but suggested the numbers were lower than claimed.
Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian presenter, shared a Telegram saying "losses were significant... but not even close" to 400.

But Igor Girkin, a pro-Russian commentator, said hundreds had been killed and wounded, although the exact number was still unknown because of the large number still missing. The building itself was "almost completely destroyed", he said.
He added that the victims were mainly mobilised troops - that is, recent conscripts, rather than those who chose to fight. He also said ammunition was stored in the same building as the soldiers, making the damage worse.
"Almost all of the military equipment was also destroyed, which stood right next to the building without any disguise whatsoever," he wrote on Telegram.
Girkin is a well-known military blogger, who led Russian-backed separatists when they occupied of large parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014. He was recently found guilty of murder for his part in the shooting down of flight MH17.
Despite his pro-Russian stance, he regularly criticises the Russian military leadership and their tactics.

BiB, poor buggers.

Ukraine claims hundreds of Russians killed by missile attack

In a rare move, Moscow acknowledged the strike, but said 63 troops were killed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[DaveCinzano]

Anyone know how this compares to largest single losses in one attack in recent years?

By some accounts Syrian & Wagner forces lost up to 300 or so (out of a force around 500 strong) when they attacked US positions in the Battle of Khasham.

 

[Dystopiary]

Spoiler: bombed residential areas

 

[LDC]

9/11

Not military target I was thinking, so discounted things like that or other similar things. Not necessarily water-tight logical, but just was musing.

Was thinking as single attack as well, rather than cumilatively as well over the course of a battle lasting days. It'll have a big psychological impact, as well as (I imagine) a pretty harsh response?

 

[Spymaster]

Not military target I was thinking, so discounted things like that or other similar things. Not necessarily water-tight logical, but just was musing.

Was thinking as single attack as well, rather than cumilatively as well over the course of a battle lasting days. It'll have a big psychological impact, as well as (I imagine) a pretty harsh response?

The coalition attack on Highway 80 in Kuwait must be up there with 500-1000 Iraqi dead in one night.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not military target I was thinking, so discounted things like that or other similar things. Not necessarily water-tight logical, but just was musing.

Was thinking as single attack as well, rather than cumilatively as well over the course of a battle lasting days. It'll have a big psychological impact, as well as (I imagine) a pretty harsh response?

You said military action, not military target. But saying the pentagon in Washington dc not for you a military target seems perverse to me. James Wirtz, of the American naval postgraduate school, describes the abbottabad raid that killed bin laden as the second most politically important special operation since ww2, with the 9/11 attacks being in first place. ('The abbottabad raid and the theory of special operations' in journal of strategic studies, 45:6-7, 2022)

 

[LDC]

Bore off, I'm exhausted and didn't spend ages referencing or thinking through my quick question.

 

[Yossarian]

Ship going down like the belgrano seems the only other possibility

Also the Beirut barracks bombing in 1983, killed 241 American and 58 French military personnel.

 

[Pickman's model]

Bore off, I'm exhausted and didn't spend ages referencing or thinking through my quick question.

Oh right, we ought to tailor our posts to how you're feeling. I didn't spend ages referencing or thinking through my answer either, was reading wirtz's article earlier

 

[tim]

Anyone know how this compares to largest single losses in one attack in recent years? Surely this is the largest single loss of life in a single military action for ages?

(My post work and NYE brain isn't working well very, so apoloigies if I've missed an obvious one.)

If it's true.

 

[two sheds]

Back somewhat further but 10,000 in one explosion

Deadliest explosion killed 10,000 Germans and was heard 140 miles away in London

Heroic First World War exploits celebrated in a new film out on Friday - The War Below, starring Sam Hazeldine - involved British military engineers detonating a million pounds of explosives under German lines

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[maomao]

Back somewhat further but 10,000 in one explosion

Deadliest explosion killed 10,000 Germans and was heard 140 miles away in London

Heroic First World War exploits celebrated in a new film out on Friday - The War Below, starring Sam Hazeldine - involved British military engineers detonating a million pounds of explosives under German lines

www.mirror.co.uk

It was more of a series of linked explosions. Pretty sure Hiroshima wins the single blast death tally.