Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Ming]

Well they’ve got to cross that river.

I wonder what support, training, materiel and intel NATO is providing to enable that over the winter period?

I saw an interview with a retired US general saying that to hit those airfields 700 miles inside Russia that accurately would have needed on the ground laser target painting. So SF are behind the lines in Russian territory. Is this an escalation or just modern warfare both sides acknowledge?

The reason i ask is that Russian military doctrine with regards to the Rodina is if it’s threatened nukes are authorized.

What’s the red line with this? The border (which has been breached it looks like ) or an assault on Moscow?

#kekabking

 

[clusterfarce]

Some shite soothsayer/ clairevoyant on SM reckons that England will Win the WC after beating Argentina but there will be great fire across Europe that will render the victory impotent. The wanker

Scotland fans rioting.

 

[strung out]

The gains are obvious but still not very substantial. Russia has control of a slightly smaller area but in essence much the same sort of thing...a contiguous strip of territory along the coast to Crimea.

Ukraine hasn't actually been conducting any offences in the areas still held by Russia though, so I think it's a bit unfair to say 'the front lines are being broadly held, and we can't expect any further movement', which is what ska invita was saying.

The two areas that Ukraine has conducted offensives over the last three months have seen substantial territorial gains, as well as strategic gains. Liberating Kherson the only regional capital held by Russia, ending the near encirclement of Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, and recapturing a string of strategic hubs like Izyum and Lyman isn't a sign of stalemate.

We'll have to see what happens over the winter when movement over the frozen ground becomes more straightforward for Ukraine before writing off the chances of any further successful offensive.

 

[ska invita]

Ukraine hasn't actually been conducting any offences in the areas still held by Russia though, so I think it's a bit unfair to say 'the front lines are being broadly held, and we can't expect any further movement', which is what ska invita was saying.

The two areas that Ukraine has conducted offensives over the last three months have seen substantial territorial gains, as well as strategic gains. Liberating Kherson the only regional capital held by Russia, ending the near encirclement of Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, and recapturing a string of strategic hubs like Izyum and Lyman isn't a sign of stalemate.

We'll have to see what happens over the winter when movement over the frozen ground becomes more straightforward for Ukraine before writing off the chances of any further successful offensive.

That's a simplification of what I said : I didn't say "zero" further movement, I've said annexed territory is "broadly" held, and there's clearly limited gains and counter gains happening continuously.

I've also said even a significant Ukrainian breakthrough in the south east is potentially very dangerous and possibly counterproductive if it is not part of a push that would lead to a full rout as would likely provoke a desperate response, as it cleaves the annexed area between Crimea and the Russian border.

 

[strung out]

That's a simplification of what I said : I didn't say "zero" further movement, I've said annexed territory is "broadly" held, and there's clearly limited gains and counter gains happening continuously

Sure, but that's because Ukraine aren't carrying out a major offensive at the moment. Their previous two offensives have only just culminated successfully, so it's not a surprise that they're pausing during the muddy autumn season.

I've also said even a significant Ukrainian breakthrough in the south east is potentially very dangerous and possibly counterproductive if it is not part of a push that would lead to a full rout as would likely provoke a desperate response, as it cleaves the annexed area between Crimea and the Russian border.

This sounds like more scaremongering to me. Russia must be allowed to keep some territory so they're not humiliated.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sure, but that's because Ukraine aren't carrying out a major offensive at the moment. Their previous two offensives have only just culminated successfully, so it's not a surprise that they're pausing during the muddy autumn season.


This sounds like more scaremongering to me. Russia must be allowed to keep some territory so they're not humiliated.

For god's sake leave them moscow

 

[clusterfarce]

The reason i ask is that Russian military doctrine with regards to the Rodina is if it’s threatened nukes are authorized.

What’s the red line with this? The border (which has been breached it looks like ) or an assault on Moscow?

Russia is a confused mess as to who and what is going on. Ukraine has had numerous attacks on Belogrod (at one point they were flying in Mil 24s low and hammering fuel depots) so the whole they are pretty flexible. They announced Kherson was forever Russia then handed it over. They bombed Kerch Bridge and Russia could only really carry forward a long planned drone attack.
That said tomorrow they could take a stray rocket onto Luhansk as an attack on Moscow itself and declare they are going nuclear.
Its a regime of "night and fog".

 

[MickiQ]

For god's sake leave them moscow

The city centre sure but the suburbs are up for debate

 

[The39thStep]

The city centre sure but the suburbs are up for debate

Are the shops still closed ?

 

[MickiQ]

Are the shops still closed ?

probably not much in them by now

 

[teqniq]

Archived article from WSJ:

Ukraine Says Western Allies Shouldn’t Fear Russia Falling Apart

 

[donkyboy]

Just recognise Crimea as Russian and this war will come to an end. None of these western governments have any issues with the Israel annexing Palestinian lands. This will give Putin a chance to save face and withdraw, I'm pretty sure.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Just recognise Crimea as Russian and this war will come to an end. None of these western governments have any issues with the Israel annexing Palestinian lands. This will give Putin a chance to save face and withdraw, I'm pretty sure.

Im pretty sure you're talking utter cobblers.

 

[donkyboy]

Im pretty sure you're talking utter cobblers.

nah. recognise. cri. war. end. peace. come. simple.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Just recognise Crimea as Russian and this war will come to an end. None of these western governments have any issues with the Israel annexing Palestinian lands. This will give Putin a chance to save face and withdraw, I'm pretty sure.

nah. recognise. cri. war. end. peace. come. simple.

At the start of this year Russia controlled all of Crimea and had done for 7 years or more. This was unrecognised by the rest of the world, but was not being challenged militarily. Since then maybe 200,000 people have been killed or injured, Ukraine has been ravaged and plundered, further territory has been annexed, the world's economy destabilised etc etc. And you reckon 'just give what he already had in practice in the first place, and it'll all be OK'. Your opinion is based on what, exactly? A feeling in your bones? Something about Putin's horoscope?

 

[ska invita]

the poster is a serial troll - clue is in the name - ignore

 

[existentialist]

Just recognise Crimea as Russian and this war will come to an end. None of these western governments have any issues with the Israel annexing Palestinian lands. This will give Putin a chance to save face and withdraw, I'm pretty sure.

Yeah, because Putin has a VERY good track record of sticking to his agreements.

If we were dealing with a normal dictator, perhaps that might be a pragmatic solution. But we're not.

 

[TopCat]

Yeah, because Putin has a VERY good track record of sticking to his agreements.

If we were dealing with a normal dictator, perhaps that might be a pragmatic solution. But we're not.

Give examples of normal dictators?

 

[TopCat]

Are normal dictators ones who support the west in general? Papa Doc sort of thing?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are normal dictators ones who support the west in general? Papa Doc sort of thing?

Yeh clients of western regimes

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, because Putin has a VERY good track record of sticking to his agreements.

If we were dealing with a normal dictator, perhaps that might be a pragmatic solution. But we're not.

Perhaps dictators by their very nature are not normal

 

[clusterfarce]

Perhaps the control surfaces, they may not have deicing one things like leading edges. Though its plausible they simply dont start in the cold or damp. A problem that used to be "a thing" with cars.

 

[The39thStep]

Perhaps dictators by their very nature are not normal

We dealt well with that normal dictator Pinochet

 

[not-bono-ever]

Murad Saidov- Chechen forces leader in the region looks to have been unalived during the bother at the barracks yesterday.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Lol. I’m not in anyway getting all call of duty regarding deaths and stuff but this by is good news if true

 

[TopCat]

We dealt well that normal dictator Pinochet

Oh a proper sort of dictator, one the west can do business with.

 

[existentialist]

Perhaps the control surfaces, they may not have deicing one things like leading edges. Though its plausible they simply dont start in the cold or damp. A problem that used to be "a thing" with cars.

AIUI, they have a lot of plastic parts which become brittle in colder temperatures.

 

[TopCat]

Perhaps the control surfaces, they may not have deicing one things like leading edges. Though its plausible they simply dont start in the cold or damp. A problem that used to be "a thing" with cars.

Didn't Odessa lose all its power yesterday after Iranian drone attacks?

 

[Nylock]

Apparently, Wagner Luhansk HQ has been destroyed...

 

[keybored]

Perhaps the control surfaces, they may not have deicing one things like leading edges. Though its plausible they simply dont start in the cold or damp. A problem that used to be "a thing" with cars.

2-stroke engines, they're not called Flying Lawnmowers for nothing.