Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What he wants and what he can achieve are two different things.
A reluctant agreement on the border would likely lead to a highly militarised iron curtain arrangement

Unless they join NATO they will be at risk for ever. Not joining will be a red line for Putin.
Shit situation.

 

[ska invita]

Unless they join NATO they will be at risk for ever. Not joining will be a red line for Putin.
Shit situation.

Then again so was Finland joining...
Of course total shitfest

For the sake of thought experiment if we agree for the moment that Ukraine cannot repel Russian occupation then eventually agreeing to a border - a big gift to Russia - will have to come with some gift in return in negotiations - security arrangements (NATO or UN or whatever the fuck) would likely come in return ??

 

[maomao]

Then again so was Finland joining...
Of course total shitfest

For the sake of thought experiment if we agree for the moment that Ukraine cannot repel Russian occupation then eventually agreeing to a border - a big gift to Russia - will have to come with some gift in return in negotiations - security arrangements (NATO or UN or whatever the fuck) would likely come in return ??

Restructuring the UN and the security council to have real power would help but the US will never agree to it because they want the power to act as a rogue state looting and murdering the rest of the world.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Then again so was Finland joining...
Of course total shitfest

For the sake of thought experiment if we agree for the moment that Ukraine cannot repel Russian occupation then eventually agreeing to a border - a big gift to Russia - will have to come with some gift in return in negotiations - security arrangements (NATO or UN or whatever the fuck) would likely come in return ??

Russia was never threatening Finland, Finland is in the EU which gives it de facto protection anyway, also when USSR tried it the result was fairly bad.

As far as we can tell Putin's stance will be no UN or NATO in Ukraine, he'll just promise to leave the invasion where it is, with his fingers crossed behind his back. There appears no way to actually negotiate with Russia, so the idea is fairly moot. The Russian foreign minister still maintains that Russia has not invaded Ukraine at all. Where do you go from there?

 

[ska invita]

Russia was never threatening Finland, Finland is in the EU which gives it de facto protection anyway, also when USSR tried it the result was fairly bad.

yeah of course its not the same thing, my point is although Russia has "won" territory it has also fucked up hard and is in a position to cut some loses ... im sure pretty desperate to call it quits if it can, though still in a position to slog it out for a long time yet.
Having a more fully armed NATO right on its border is a new reality already

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

yeah of course its not the same thing, my point is although Russia has "won" territory it has also fucked up hard and is in a position to cut some loses ... im sure pretty desperate to call it quits if it can, though still in a position to slog it out for a long time yet.

How can they ever be trusted to stick to their word? Unless they are totally driven out and Putin's regime destroyed the threat will always hang over Ukraine.

Having a more fully armed NATO right on its border is a new reality already

A part of Russia has been encircled by NATO for decades, Russia doesn't really care about NATO, unless it applies to a country they wish to invade, of course.

 

[ska invita]

How can they ever be trusted to stick to their word?

of course they cant, but whatever border emerges it will be heavily armed and not exist on any "trust"

A part of Russia has been encircled by NATO for decades, Russia doesn't really care about NATO, unless it applies to a country they wish to invade, of course.

true enough, but its about to be on a different scale - any remaining justifications for a neutral zone etc are lying burnt in a crater

 

[Dystopiary]

Russia launched over 70 missiles into Ukraine today, 60 of which were shot down by Ukrainian air defence.

 

[bcuster]

Counter strike in the air war?

Explosion at Nuclear Airbase Just 150 Miles From Moscow Opens Stunning New Phase of War

Deadly explosions rocked two bases deep inside Russia in a blistering new setback for Putin, who is already sustaining huge losses on Ukrainian territory.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[The39thStep]

Putin is back on his feet

Putin drives across Crimea bridge reopened after October blast

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[not-bono-ever]

I thought he was lying at the bottom of his stairs , covered in his own excrement?

He seems to have recovered very quickly. Unless the report was utter horseshit

 

[maomao]

Putin is back on his feet

Putin drives across Crimea bridge reopened after October blast

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

Though things could have got worse according to that article:

Putin dives a Mercedes across the bridge as Russia re-opened it to traffic following an October blast Moscow blamed on Ukraine.

I thought he was lying at the bottom of his stairs , covered in his own excrement?

He seems to have recovered very quickly. Unless the report was utter horseshit

How long does it take to recover from shat pants? I'm sure they had him cleaned up in a matter of minutes. Could easily have been a body double anyway, not speaking, wrapped in a puffa jacket and mostly driving.

 

[The39thStep]

Though things could have got worse according to that article:





How long does it take to recover from shat pants? I'm sure they had him cleaned up in a matter of minutes. Could easily have been a body double anyway, not speaking, wrapped in a puffa jacket and mostly driving.

Could have been a hologram ?

 

[maomao]

Could have been a hologram ?

I think you're taking things a bit far now.

 

[TopCat]

I think you're taking things a bit far now.

A Putin hologram on his way to wrestle with a Crimean bear.

 

[steveseagull]

This strategic nuclear bomber looks fairly fucked. Putin now knows his air bases are not safe and Moscow may also be in range.

 

[Pickman's model]

This strategic nuclear bomber looks fairly fucked. Putin now knows his air bases are not safe and Moscow may also be in range.

A couple of fucked bombers won't make a huge difference, especially as I'm sure they can fly from further afield and launch their cruise missiles and return to base without any great danger from Ukrainian aa. Sure it's more convenient to fly from engels-2 and ryazan but it's not like russia's short of jet fuel

 

[clusterfarce]

Footage of a Gepard taking down a cruise missile.
Belgium apparently has 55 in storage, just saying.

 

[clusterfarce]

Unless they join NATO they will be at risk for ever. Not joining will be a red line for Putin.
Shit situation.

As soon as the war ends on anything other than a Russian dictated peace settlement the US has a large selection of equipment it can transfer to them including F16s, M1 Abrahams and Bradleys. The current self imposed ban by the west on modern equipment like that is the main thing holding them back.
American seem to think that they need to pressure Zelensky into some kind of discussion on negotiations in order to have at least a pro forma "see we tried" when they go to the French and Germans. I think this is the source of much of the perception of a pressure to negotiate. The DOD just slapped down an order for massive increases in artillery for over 3 years.

“Funding is already in place, contracts are underway to basically triple 155mm production,” Bush told Defense News on the sidelines of the Reagan National Defense Forum. “There’s funding on the Hill, in the supplemental, to more than double that again. That would take a period of years.

“We want to be able to build our stocks not just where we started the war, but higher. We’re posturing for a pretty ― over a period of three years ― a dramatic increase in conventional artillery ammunition production.”

“We are in a position to support Ukraine, but it’s more the mid and long term,” Bush said. “By creating this capacity ... if this war goes three or four years, we’ll be in a position to just vastly outproduce the Russians all by ourselves ― and if you combine that with our allies, then we’re just dwarfing their capability. They won’t be able to keep up.”

Army plans ‘dramatic’ ammo production boost as Ukraine drains stocks

But its plan for a ramp up in production hinges on Congress.

www.defensenews.com

Russia has a narrow gap where it could get old Soviet factories running and churning out enough artillery to turn the war before the US goes all in on artillery for Ukraine.

 

[Tanya1982]

yeah of course its not the same thing, my point is although Russia has "won" territory it has also fucked up hard and is in a position to cut some loses ... im sure pretty desperate to call it quits if it can, though still in a position to slog it out for a long time yet.
Having a more fully armed NATO right on its border is a new reality already

I'm not sure if it's new. They have a border with Norway and, but for a stretch of water, a massive border with Alaska, and depending on how you look at it, an even larger one over the top with Canada. All for decades, that even the Soviet Union lived with. That's not counting what borders their exclave at Kaliningrad which, until this year, was the only additional territory bordering Russia that NATO picked up.

 

[strung out]

I'm not sure if it's new. They have a border with Norway and, but for a stretch of water, a massive border with Alaska, and depending on how you look at it, an even larger one over the top with Canada. All for decades, that even the Soviet Union lived with. That's not counting what borders their exclave at Kaliningrad which, until this year, was the only additional territory bordering Russia that NATO picked up.

Latvia and Estonia have been NATO border countries with Russia since 2004 too.

 

[Tanya1982]

Latvia and Estonia have been NATO border countries with Russia since 2004 too.

Yes, them too. But the idea that NATO bordering Russia is a relatively new thing isn't true. NATO members have bordered Russia directly since the formation of the alliance. The claim it's new is only Russian propaganda to shout 'hard done by'.

The departure of Georgia (and Armenia) from the Soviet Union even lessened NATO's direct borders with Moscow's own domestic territory for a while - that added a barrier that hadn't been there - so it hasn't all even been one way traffic.

 

[agricola]

This strategic nuclear bomber looks fairly fucked. Putin now knows his air bases are not safe and Moscow may also be in range.

the vestigial B-29 style tail turret is one of my favourite things about Soviet bomber aircraft

 

[kebabking]

A couple of fucked bombers won't make a huge difference, especially as I'm sure they can fly from further afield and launch their cruise missiles and return to base without any great danger from Ukrainian aa. Sure it's more convenient to fly from engels-2 and ryazan but it's not like russia's short of jet fuel

More nuanced than that - firstly it's another bomber down from a fleet already creaking from lack of available spares. This will either hoover up more spares and skilled technicians that they don't have enough of, or be stripped of every remaining part that can be used to keep the remaining fleet in the air - more spares, but one less airframe, and you can't use Boris the Cabbage farmer with his two days of training to cannibise a supersonic nuclear capable strike bomber.

Well, you can, but not if you want to use the parts again...

It's also not the only TU-22M that was damaged.

Secondly, it's almost certain that Russia will seek to deploy more air defence systems and units into what it had considered it's rear areas, because the Ukrainians have demonstrated that they are no longer rear areas. It's already stripped the Far Eastern Military District, the Finnish border and St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, the Estonian, Latvian and Polish borders - so it's either Moscow, or the units already deployed in/around Ukraine, and therefore further diluting their existing cover.

 

[The39thStep]

the vestigial B-29 style tail turret is one of my favourite things about Soviet bomber aircraft

Took the words out of my mouth

 

[DaveCinzano]

the vestigial B-29 style tail turret is one of my favourite things about Soviet bomber aircraft

Took the words out of my mouth

 

[Leighsw2]

There are only two options:

As I think has been said before, it's the Ukrainians that decide what the 'options' are not Putin apologists and defeatists like you. And as long as they are willing to fight, we will support them.

 

[Combustible]

As I think has been said before, it's the Ukrainians that decide what the 'options' are not Putin apologists and defeatists like you. And as long as they are willing to fight, we will support them.

Who is "we" here? Because that is certainly not the position of the US government, whose support is really the only one that matters.

 

[Leighsw2]

It's absolutely in the interests of the US (and Europe) to see Russia totally fucked on the killing fields of Ukraine. So the support will continue. (Of course, it's necessary to keep up appearances and speak in favour of 'negotiations', but as Russia doesn't even publicly recognise this is a war and now pretends that its international border have magically changed to incorporate large parts of Ukraine, there isn't really anything to 'negotiate' about is there?)

 

[DownwardDog]

As I think has been said before, it's the Ukrainians that decide what the 'options' are not Putin apologists and defeatists like you. And as long as they are willing to fight, we will support them.

The options aren't up to Ukraine because their course of action is constrained by the weapons and other support that Biden chooses to give or withhold.