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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Does that desperate Tory twat actually think a lot of people are going to fall for that line of reasoning? "If you strike you must hate Christmas and love Putin."

"It's unfair, in my view, for the unions to really damage and disrupt people's lives and livelihoods at Christmas," Mr Zahawi told Laura Kuenssberg.
"They should rethink and reflect on this because that is exactly what Putin wants to see. Let's not divide, let's come together."


 
Does that desperate Tory twat actually think a lot of people are going to fall for that line of reasoning? "If you strike you must hate Christmas and love Putin."

"It's unfair, in my view, for the unions to really damage and disrupt people's lives and livelihoods at Christmas," Mr Zahawi told Laura Kuenssberg.
"They should rethink and reflect on this because that is exactly what Putin wants to see. Let's not divide, let's come together."


I'm happy to come together with the nurses and ambulance crew and transport workers and mail workers etc.
 
Energy prices were sky-rocketing before the war, the price cap was first introduced in Jan 2019.

That first massive price cap increase at the end of March 2022 was based on wholesale prices for the six month period before the war had started.

That was based on the market seeing what was about to happen wasn’t it? The military buildup had been known about for some time.

Inflation is a different matter. It started rocketing from Q1 2020. Let’s not mention the B word though.
 
"Our mission is crucial because the destruction of archives can be seen as part of cultural genocide" - Anatolii Khromov, head of Ukrainian State Archives. Russia has been systematically attacking Ukraine's cultural institutions, already having destroyed 300 state and university libraries since the start of the war.
A fascinating and disturbing article about the efforts to resist that cultural genocide:
 
A Ukrainian official offered a cryptic appraisal of Monday’s explosions. “The Earth is round – discovery made by Galileo. Astronomy was not studied in Kremlin, giving preference to court astrologers. If it was, they would know: if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point,” wrote Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential advisor.

Top trolling
 
That was based on the market seeing what was about to happen wasn’t it? The military buildup had been known about for some time.

Inflation is a different matter. It started rocketing from Q1 2020. Let’s not mention the B word though.
Brinting money?
 
Putin is now saying that a precondition for any talks is that the West, and presumably Ukraine, recognise their recent annexations. So agree not to negotiate about the things you need to negotiate about in the first place. And some people wonder why Ukrainians are reluctant to talk to the fucker.
Of course - that's because the Russians are basically successfully occupying the annexed territory.


There are only two options:
-1. ceasefire with a defacto "recognition" (however not really officially recognised, as is already the case with Crimea or Palestinian occupied territories), or
-2. endless war with the aim to push Russian troops out of all occupied territories

If #2 isn't militarily possible then what?

What are the things you expect Russia to "negotiate about in the first place"?
 
Of course - that's because the Russians are basically successfully occupying the annexed territory.


There are only two options:
-1. ceasefire with a defacto "recognition" (however not really officially recognised, as is already the case with Crimea or Palestinian occupied territories), or
-2. endless war with the aim to push Russian troops out of all occupied territories

If #2 isn't militarily possible then what?

What are the things you expect Russia to "negotiate about in the first place"?

Why don't you think its possible? It seems that the level if tech being provided to the Ukrainians continues to increase and their moral is good.
 
Despite the arse-kicking they're getting, the fundamental arrogance of the Russian high command doesn't seem to change. They act as if the Russian border is some magic barrier which nothing can cross. If those pictures in the Beeb story are really from a week ago they show the planes lined up on the runway like an airshow not like a country that's at war (no matter what they call it)

Of course - that's because the Russians are basically successfully occupying the annexed territory.


There are only two options:
-1. ceasefire with a defacto "recognition" (however not really officially recognised, as is already the case with Crimea or Palestinian occupied territories), or
-2. endless war with the aim to push Russian troops out of all occupied territories

If #2 isn't militarily possible then what?

What are the things you expect Russia to "negotiate about in the first place"?

But they're not successfully occupying those provinces they only fully control one and from 30-70% of the remaining three and are steadily if slowly losing ground. Recognising Russia's annexation of them would enable Putin to end the war with more than he started with and more than he has now. It would probably enable him to secure his position and cling onto power and no-one bar Putin himself wants that.
It's clear that no-one even remotely expected the Ukrainians to be the absolute badasses they have turned out to be. Why should they accept what would be a humilating climbdown to end a war which they still have a realistic shot at winning even if it takes them a while?
 
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Why don't you think its possible? It seems that the level if tech being provided to the Ukrainians continues to increase and their moral is good.
because the 'Ukraine is winning' narrative is deceptive
because i look at the occupied map and see its being broadly held
roughly equal casualties
ukrainian citizens are under horrendous unsustainable conditions

heres june 2022

june.png

now map

today today.png

the tactical retreat to the river border in the west has created a strong Russian defence line - seems to be agreed by western analysts
why the fighting is now in the east
now map.png

I cant see how looking from that anyone can foresee a total Russian rout.
 
Why does the war in Ukraine affect you so much compared to other wars? What are the key differences?
I can't answer for existentialist, but i feel as he does in his OP.
I try to from time to time - those who think that everyone with an interest in what's going on in Ukraine are just armchair generals viewing War Porn can go and do one.

I have never, in my life, been as affected by the impact on people affected by war as I have been by what is happening in Ukraine. I vacillate between rage, sorrow, and heartbreak. Sometimes, watching vatniks getting blown to bits is a slight solace.
There's various reasons why the war in Ukraine affects people more. Personal connections to the culture and related cultures while growing up, for example.

Other people already knew the terror of war, or are no more or less affected by this war than previous wars. Fine. There is a related attitude I'd like to mention. Although I'm not saying it's your attitude.

Gilbert Achar the academic debates SWP type people who sit on their high horse and claim to have always been concerned with wars. So the outbreak of war in Ukraine is nothing special to them. In fact they undermine it.
 
Of course - that's because the Russians are basically successfully occupying the annexed territory.


There are only two options:
-1. ceasefire with a defacto "recognition" (however not really officially recognised, as is already the case with Crimea or Palestinian occupied territories), or
-2. endless war with the aim to push Russian troops out of all occupied territories

If #2 isn't militarily possible then what?

What are the things you expect Russia to "negotiate about in the first place"?
Firstly, I don't expect Russia to negotiate in good faith about anything. Anything at all.
Secondly, there's always more than two options, even if they're not immediately obvious at the moment.
And thirdly, ... erm...

Anyway, a lot of people never expected Russia to invade in the first place. A lot of people thought Kyiv would fall really quickly, the Ukrainian leadership scarper with loads of dosh under their arms, etc etc. Plenty thought there was no chance of any Ukrainian gains in the east.

Anything could happen.

I would add that the occupation is questionably successful. Does that mean the occupied population have enthusiastically rallied to the Russian flag? Is the economy thriving in those areas? Or have huge numbers of people either fled or been deported?
 
because the 'Ukraine is winning' narrative is deceptive
because i look at the occupied map and see its being broadly held
roughly equal casualties
ukrainian citizens are under horrendous unsustainable conditions

heres june 2022

View attachment 354356

now map

View attachment 354358

the tactical retreat to the river border in the west has created a strong Russian defence line - seems to be agreed by western analysts
why the fighting is now in the east
View attachment 354359

I cant see how looking from that anyone can foresee a total Russian rout.


If they agrees to let Moscow have the annexed areas, what then? It’s very clear that Putin won’t stop until he has all of Ukraine, so the threat will remain as long as he and his regime does.
 
I would add that the occupation is questionably successful. Does that mean the occupied population have enthusiastically rallied to the Russian flag? Is the economy thriving in those areas? Or have huge numbers of people either fled or been deported?
Of course not but there's a long history of military conquering and occupation in the world, including this particular piece of land.
I expect generations of resistance to any occupation.

And not Anything Can Happen. Military planning is all about cold hard reality and I don't think we get a good representation of that in our media, including smiling dog memes
 
If they agrees to let Moscow have the annexed areas, what then? It’s very clear that Putin won’t stop until he has all of Ukraine, so the threat will remain as long as he and his regime does.
What he wants and what he can achieve are two different things.
A reluctant agreement on the border would likely lead to a highly militarised iron curtain arrangement
 
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