The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I think we're all indebted to Gabby Johnson
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Is the we Azov admirers?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
but not at all indebted to 'gobby' johnson
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh. this is a really daft post because it ignores that in e.g. ireland in the 1920s or ireland in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s there were negotiations. maybe you should read e.g. 'peace by ordeal' or 'good friday: the death of irish republicanism'. you don't need war to be declared to have negotiations, as i'm sure mick lynch would tell you
Flavour
hang the bankers
Anyone who supports Ukraine is an Azov admirer? Therefore fascist. Nice.
"we owe them a debt" lol
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I was parodying the poster I replied to.
clusterfarce
Member
To unpack this a little, the US and Europe could be seen as having reasons to give Russia an off ramp and all that. But Europe is not a homogenous blob of French voters, but a very heterogeneous entity. And for the 3 Baltic republics, this is bordering on an existential issue. Sweden and Finland have faced what they see as significant hybrid warfare over the past few years with Sweden calling for Patriots to try to deter Russian airspace incursions last year. And Poland is just in a frenzy over the prospect of a Russian take over for Ukraine. So "Europe" may have many divergent views on the issue, it has one crystal clear interest and that is it has to support the Baltics and the Baltics are crystal clear that Ukraine needs everything that can be mustered.
For the US having Europe remain closely allied means being deeply involved in the current issues in NW Europe but the opportunity you mentioned speaks to their other geopolitical need. They are re-equiping their navy and will have about an 8 year period of dropping hull numbers as they retire Cold War era vessels and bring new one online so they would love to see Russia as quiet as possible to reduce the risks of a landwar in that 8 year period they need to rebuild their navy.
In theory this is not in the hand of Ukraine. In practice the Baltics, Scandinavians and Poland pretty much dictate it will be.
Moreover Poland has been going on a mad buying spree, just put in an order for 500 HIMARS. Even if the EU and US walked away, its likely NW Europe would be able to scrape the kit together to keep Ukraine fighting. (Finland has the 3rd largest artillery force on the content).
Fez909
toilet expert
I've seen this claim a lot, and I'm sure it must be a misunderstanding or mistranslation.
There have only been 540 HIMARS produced, ever. The USA only has 363.
And they can't produce them fast enough for the already ordered units.
And that would cost $1.75B, which is 15% of Poland's entire defense budget.
It's possible that the 500 figure is correct, but it seems unlikely to me.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
they're hoping to get a substantial discount for cash and bulk buying
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Interestingly, Poland has ammended it's order.
It originally decided it wanted 500 HIMARS, the 6 tube, truck mounted GMLRS system - however, production simply cannot match the appetite within NATO for GMLRS, and so Poland has reduced it's order to 200, and instead gone for an additional 290(?) South Korean K289 12 tube, truck mounted systems.
Now, currently, the K289 uses a different rocket to the GMLRS - same size, pretty similar, but not the same. Poland would like, and given the size of it's orders for HIMARS, GMLRS rockets, and K289, should get, the GMLRS system integrated into the K289. Poland wants security of supply, as well as rapidity of supply.
Estonia has just bought HIMARS as well, as has Romania...
When enough states are looking to build up their GMLRS stocks, there's going to be a good argument for setting up a European production line - that's what Poland also wants.
It originally decided it wanted 500 HIMARS, the 6 tube, truck mounted GMLRS system - however, production simply cannot match the appetite within NATO for GMLRS, and so Poland has reduced it's order to 200, and instead gone for an additional 290(?) South Korean K289 12 tube, truck mounted systems.
Now, currently, the K289 uses a different rocket to the GMLRS - same size, pretty similar, but not the same. Poland would like, and given the size of it's orders for HIMARS, GMLRS rockets, and K289, should get, the GMLRS system integrated into the K289. Poland wants security of supply, as well as rapidity of supply.
Estonia has just bought HIMARS as well, as has Romania...
When enough states are looking to build up their GMLRS stocks, there's going to be a good argument for setting up a European production line - that's what Poland also wants.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
they read Fez's post
clusterfarce
Member
America is very artillery light. Ukraine and Finland have more towed artillery. Its stands to reason ex Soviet trained officers would look to recreate the kind of "wrath of God" Soviet style artillery opening of a battle. Especially if the vehicles can then be repurposed to being precision strike weapons. By 2030 Id say those kind of numbers to be more usual than now.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
The PM of Finland has stated that Europe ought to be doing more. I don't think she wants the US as involved as much as in the past.
www.theguardian.com
Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US
Speaking in Sydney, Marin says Europe needs to build its own defence capabilities and says Finland is preparing for cyber-attacks from Russia
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
The PM of Finland has stated that Europe ought to be doing more. I don't think she wants the US as involved as much as in the past.
Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US
Speaking in Sydney, Marin says Europe needs to build its own defence capabilities and says Finland is preparing for cyber-attacks from Russia
I'd imagine she absolutely wants America as involved as before. But that Ukrainian defence shouldn't be dependent on it
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The PM of Finland has stated that Europe ought to be doing more. I don't think she wants the US as involved as much as in the past.
Finland PM Sanna Marin says Europe is ‘not strong enough’ without the US
Speaking in Sydney, Marin says Europe needs to build its own defence capabilities and says Finland is preparing for cyber-attacks from Russia
Other way around - Marin, and many others, believes that the best way to keep the US involved with Europe is to not depend on them for everything. They see that that dependence is a source of enormous irritation in the US, making a Trumpian withdrawal from NATO (de jure or de facto) more likely, and more harmful.
Finland is a fiercely Atlantacist state in defence terms - look at it's recent procurement choices, look at the states that immediately offered security guarantees as well of demonstrative military exercises - Finland, as well as the Eastern states, are utterly opposed to the anti-NATO sentiment that you'll sometimes hear in Paris and Berlin.
bcuster
Well-Known Member
that is a good way of putting it
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
28 years ago yesterday the Budapest Memorandum was signed, whereby Russia agreed to respect Ukraine’s territorial boundaries. Security assurances were also given by the UK and USA. Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus agreed to give up nuclear weapons. Previously, Ukraine had held one of the world's largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
That went well
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Some bootlicker pillock on twatter today was going on about the RMT doing Russia’s work by destroying the country.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Not sure that destroying the U.K. is part of Russia’s business plan tbh . It was only a couple of years ago that the Tories were getting them to invest in the country .
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
So, basically if the UK & US had honoured that, and got involved directly from day one, this bloody war could have been over months ago.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Yeah. All over in a flash.
maomao
普費斯
The UK and US have honoured their security assurances. They promised to not invade or nuke Ukraine and to refer it to the UN Security Council if Ukraine were invaded.
not-bono-ever
meh
Russia is happy to bed down and make Kherson uninhabitable for the time being I would suspect. They are just over the river and can get all Sarajevo on them with their lumpen artillery.Maybe they are indeed having to ration their cruise missile expenditure, at current rates, its obviously not sustainable as they were not set up for a missile based project it would seem, this is a late flurry to wipe out their power infrastructre. Its going to be a shit winter for everyone out there but Kherson will be probabaly non stop misery from afar . Its utterly criminal.
not-bono-ever
meh
PS , but what do I know
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
It will look a bit like that if you're using two pictures with different scales.
Level them and the UKR gains are obvious.
Things probably aren't going to change very quickly in the winter, for either side.
not-bono-ever
meh
Some shite soothsayer/ clairevoyant on SM reckons that England will Win the WC after beating Argentina but there will be great fire across Europe that will render the victory impotent. The wanker
teuchter
je suis teuchter
The gains are obvious but still not very substantial. Russia has control of a slightly smaller area but in essence much the same sort of thing...a contiguous strip of territory along the coast to Crimea.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
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