Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[WhyLikeThis]

There's only two options in which the war will end:
1. Ukrainian military pushes Russian army back from all its borders, or
2. Russian military succeeds in securing the landbridge it has conquered and annexed.
(im going to be optimistic and rule out 3 Global Thermonuclear War. )

I dont think expecting 2 is particularly delusional, more realistic. Would be only too happy to be wrong though.

4. As has been speculated, a “tactical” nuclear strike by Putin with a conventional retort by NATO.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but watched an interesting feature on life inside a POW camp the other day



Obviously this is just the public face of Ukrainian treatment of Russians after surrender/capture, but doesn't look too bad to me. Rather that than the hell of trench/tank/drone warfare.

rather a despiriting watch, many of the people I met in prison could have told stories along similar lines to the POWs in here

 

[not-bono-ever]

If I were a Russian POW, I would keep my head down and pray that I am not included in some prisoner exchange and be forcibly lumped to the front immediately. I dont think the Russian army does debriefings, time off and therapy for its returned

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Elon Musk is irrelevant to the war in Ukraine. He's relevant to the memesphere though, they love him. He tweets this shit for laughs cos there's people out there like you, WhyLikeThis , who lap it up

A. I didn’t start the discussion of Musk’s dodgy comment.

B. Zelensky thought it was relevant enough to pile on him


C. Go to bed and sleep it off.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

4. As has been speculated, a “tactical” nuclear strike by Putin with a conventional retort by NATO.

Whatever happened to 3?

3. Putin dies, goes insane, is overthrown, is beamed up to the mothership, drinks some perfume by mistake.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Elon Musk is irrelevant to the war in Ukraine.

He has been supplying satellite Internet to Ukraine which has been vital for some, such as those who were barricaded in Mariupol. So, a material backer of Ukraine’s resistance exploiting their occupation as a fig leaf for his poor sales is relevant.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Whatever happened to 3?

3. Putin dies, goes insane, is overthrown, is beamed up to the mothership, drinks some perfume by mistake.

ska invita listed 3. As global thermonuclear war.

 

[strung out]

There's only two options in which the war will end:
1. Ukrainian military pushes Russian army back from all its borders, or
2. Russian military succeeds in securing the landbridge it has conquered and annexed.
(im going to be optimistic and rule out 3 Global Thermonuclear War. )

I dont think expecting 2 is particularly delusional, more realistic. Would be only too happy to be wrong though.

I think you're lacking imagination if you think those are the only ways the war can end.

And while 2 is possible, given the successes Ukraine are currently having on the battlefield, I think 1 or possibly something between 1 and 2 is currently more likely.

Ukraine took back 10% of the territory that Russia held in September alone, and the pattern looks to be repeating itself in October.

 

[Dystopiary]

Thread by @YudinGreg on Thread Reader App

@YudinGreg: There will probably appear very soon some poll numbers suggesting that Russians are incredibly enthusiastic about annexation. This was the case in 2014 with annexation of Crimea: on the Russian territory...…

threadreaderapp.com

A thread by sociologist Greg Yudin about polling in Russia

You will probably very soon meet people who would say that Russian referenda in Ukraine are sham, while Russian polls in Russia are totally fine and representative

Definitely seen that...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ukraine is now carrying out two separate offenses with considerable success whilst Russia is reduced to literally press ganging people off the street and throwing them into the front line with zero training and rusty AK47s. Kind of suggests Russia's army is chronically degraded and their air force is not bothering to turn up any more. All they seem to have a shit ton of artillary - which isn't much use against a fast moving enemy and is mostly located in the wrong place - i.e where they are carrying fruitless attacks in the eastern donbas rather than where Ukraine is breaking their lines in the North east and west. Ukraine's intelligence is top notch as evidenced by their constant and successful targeting of Russian command centres and supply dumps. Russia seems to be fighting blind. The gap between the combat abilities of the two sides is now glaring and getting wider. They have no made response to Ukraine's advances other than terror bombing civilians. They tried to hold Lyman - and failed. They have been trying to hold Kherson and now that looks to be crumbling. They look very very weak for a supposedly massively powerful army with formidable firepower.
Kind of starting resemble the first gulf war where Iraq had a huge army - but mostly conscripts with shit morale, zero motivation and poor equipment whilst the US and co had the tech and the smart fire power. Iraq's army pretty much folded straight away - often surrendering en masse.
said it earlier - we may be seeing an accelerating defeat of the Russian army that could effectively end the war sooner then anyone expected.

 

[xenon]

Ukraine is now carrying out two separate offenses with considerable success whilst Russia is reduced to literally press ganging people off the street and throwing them into the front line with zero training and rusty AK47s. Kind of suggests Russia's army is chronically degraded and their air force is not bothering to turn up any more. All they seem to have a shit ton of artillary - which isn't much use against a fast moving enemy and is mostly located in the wrong place - i.e where they are carrying fruitless attacks in the eastern donbas rather than where Ukraine is breaking their lines in the North east and west. Ukraine's intelligence is top notch as evidenced by their constant and successful targeting of Russian command centres and supply dumps. Russia seems to be fighting blind. The gap between the combat abilities of the two sides is now glaring and getting wider. They have no made response to Ukraine's advances other than terror bombing civilians. They tried to hold Lyman - and failed. They have been trying to hold Kherson and now that looks to be crumbling. They look very very weak for a supposedly massively powerful army with formidable firepower.
Kind of starting resemble the first gulf war where Iraq had a huge army - but mostly conscripts with shit morale, zero motivation and poor equipment whilst the US and co had the tech and the smart fire power. Iraq's army pretty much folded straight away - often surrendering en masse.
said it earlier - we may be seeing an accelerating defeat of the Russian army that could effectively end the war sooner then anyone expected.

This is interesting to ponder, A situation on the ground where the Russian army have affectively surrendered, or are so degraded in combat power, it amounts to the same thing. The ramifications for Putin’s regime. If via a few fanatic commanders he orders the professional units to take a very robust approach to conscripts. It could actually trigger some kind of mutiny loss of Authority and blowback to Moscow.

Yes caveats, pure speculation

 

[oryx]

Interesting article about life in the occupied parts of Ukraine, focusing on Kherson, Mariupol and Melitopol, and how Russification (is that the right term?) is affecting everyday life.

A rare glimpse of daily life in occupied Ukraine

Post-apocalyptic is how one resident describes his city, from which many people have fled.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

He has been supplying satellite Internet to Ukraine which has been vital for some, such as those who were barricaded in Mariupol. So, a material backer of Ukraine’s resistance exploiting their occupation as a fig leaf for his poor sales is relevant.

He sold Starlink to Ukraine, got the US and French people to pay for it. Starlink is his company and it made a sale cos that’s what companies do. Musk has tried to give the impression that they gave it to Ukraine out of the goodness of their hearts, cos he’s a duplicitous cunt.

 

[The39thStep]

Sort of reminds me of the interview with the British/Ukrainian marine Aidan something or other who was recently swapped. Except his interview was considered a warcrime.

I’ve seen videos from both Ukraine and Russia about POWs and conditions . Let’s face it they are all part of the propaganda war

I suspect it's intended to be dull. You don't really want a bunch of inspired, energised prisoners: keep them busy and unstimulated.

I was interested to learn that there is an obligation under the Geneva Convention to give them work to do, though. Although I imagine that idle hands might turn themselves to mischievous activities involving vaulting horses and home-made shovels...

The U.K. managed to keep POWs working till 1948 , about 150k worked on the land .

 

[bluescreen]

I’ve seen videos from both Ukraine and Russia about POWs and conditions . Let’s face it they are all part of the propaganda war

The U.K. managed to keep POWs working till 1948 , about 150k worked on the land .

There were a lot of them in the area where I grew up; some stayed behind and settled and I went to school with their children.

 

[Spymaster]

Looks like they may be about to "test fire" a nuclear weapon.

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

Train operated by secretive nuclear division spotted in central Russia heading towards the front line in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[nogojones]

I’ve seen videos from both Ukraine and Russia about POWs and conditions . Let’s face it they are all part of the propaganda war

The U.K. managed to keep POWs working till 1948 , about 150k worked on the land .

I didn't know it was an obligation under the Geneva convention, but yeah, my old man was working on Scottish farm until '48. I'm sure my Mum has some pictures of him back then and will try and dig them out one day. He never mentioned working in his first camp in Italy, but the guards there would let him and a couple of others out in the day, so he could go down to town to do some black market bartering for the inmates and guards. To make sure they didn't get stuffed on the deals the guards would lend him an unloaded rifle.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Ukraine is now carrying out two separate offenses with considerable success whilst Russia is reduced to literally press ganging people off the street and throwing them into the front line with zero training and rusty AK47s. Kind of suggests Russia's army is chronically degraded and their air force is not bothering to turn up any more. All they seem to have a shit ton of artillary - which isn't much use against a fast moving enemy and is mostly located in the wrong place - i.e where they are carrying fruitless attacks in the eastern donbas rather than where Ukraine is breaking their lines in the North east and west. Ukraine's intelligence is top notch as evidenced by their constant and successful targeting of Russian command centres and supply dumps. Russia seems to be fighting blind. The gap between the combat abilities of the two sides is now glaring and getting wider. They have no made response to Ukraine's advances other than terror bombing civilians. They tried to hold Lyman - and failed. They have been trying to hold Kherson and now that looks to be crumbling. They look very very weak for a supposedly massively powerful army with formidable firepower.
Kind of starting resemble the first gulf war where Iraq had a huge army - but mostly conscripts with shit morale, zero motivation and poor equipment whilst the US and co had the tech and the smart fire power. Iraq's army pretty much folded straight away - often surrendering en masse.
said it earlier - we may be seeing an accelerating defeat of the Russian army that could effectively end the war sooner then anyone expected.

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, I think saying Ukraines intelligence is top notch might be missing why it just so good.

 

[teqniq]

Looks like they may be about to "test fire" a nuclear weapon.

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

Train operated by secretive nuclear division spotted in central Russia heading towards the front line in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

Just so as not to give the vile rag any clicks:

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

 

[Pickman's model]

..

 

[The39thStep]

There were a lot of them in the area where I grew up; some stayed behind and settled and I went to school with their children.

There were a couple of Germans ex POWs who worked on the second job I had after school . Both had family and kids here and were settled .

 

[Cid]

Looks like they may be about to "test fire" a nuclear weapon.

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

Train operated by secretive nuclear division spotted in central Russia heading towards the front line in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

Scuse the cross-post, but I'll quote 2hats from the speculation thread:

Torygraph might be getting a little ahead of itself with speculation over the activities of 12th GUMO (hardware actually spotted just outside of Moscow, not in central Russia).

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

Train operated by secretive nuclear division spotted in central Russia heading towards the front line in Ukraine

www.telegraph.co.uk

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to …

archived 4 Oct 2022 00:03:38 UTC

archive.ph

Movement of hardware usually only ever associated with the 12th directorate might be part of some intentional signalling theatre, prep for planned seasonal drills (RSVN exercises more common in autumn), anti-terror related, part of equipment maintenance/modernisation or requisition for war, and not necessarily heralding nuclear release. Unlikely to be accompanying warheads here as the appropriate specialised rail cars were not observed.

(@)

This Tweet is unavailable.

nitter.net

 

[JimW]

I’ve seen videos from both Ukraine and Russia about POWs and conditions . Let’s face it they are all part of the propaganda war

The U.K. managed to keep POWs working till 1948 , about 150k worked on the land .

Mum remembers having a German POW round for tea, think he must have gone to Mass at same church. Doubt he'd have been working at the car plant my grandad did.

 

[The39thStep]

There’s a film about Bert Trautmann , the Man City keeper . At the beginning it shows the conscripted labour that Trautmann and others performed , and later the very mixed attitudes to Trautmann and other POWs . It was a Rabbi that helped turn the tide of outrage ,resentment and protests that first greeted Trautmann when he played for City .

 

[teqniq]

There’s a film about Bert Trautmann , the Man City keeper . At the beginning it shows the conscripted labour that Trautmann and others performed , and later the very mixed attitudes to Trautmann and other POWs . It was a Rabbi that helped turn the tide of outrage ,resentment and protests that first greeted Trautmann when he played for City .

That's a brilliant film.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I’ve seen videos from both Ukraine and Russia about POWs and conditions . Let’s face it they are all part of the propaganda war

The U.K. managed to keep POWs working till 1948 , about 150k worked on the land .

There was a large POW camp for Italians in Woking, many stayed after the war and the town became the unlikely location as the home to the Mafia in the UK.

 

[existentialist]

There was a large POW camp for Italians in Woking, many stayed after the war and the town became the unlikely location as the home to the Mafia in the UK.

What became the DHSS offices at Tolworth - serried ranks of single-storey brick buildings - was originally an Italian prisoner-of-war camp. I went to school with quite a lot of second-generation Italians...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Whilst this is undoubtedly true, I think saying Ukraines intelligence is top notch might be missing why it just so good.

well yes - it's NATO's intel. And it could well be the biggest advantage Ukraine has over the Russians. Apparently on day one of the war they were tipped off about the airborne attack that was meant to capture/kill zelensky and capture the airport in Kiev - so the Ukrainians were lying in wait - resulting in half of Russia's elite airborne units (and their aircraft) being taken out.
Another point about the collapsing Russian lines - the forces that have been routed in Lyman and possibly facing a similar fate in Kherson are apparently some of Russia best units (according to ISW).

 

[MickiQ]

What became the DHSS offices at Tolworth - serried ranks of single-storey brick buildings - was originally an Italian prisoner-of-war camp. I went to school with quite a lot of second-generation Italians...

Son Q's first girlfriend was the granddaughter of an Italian POW who didn't return home. She was a blue eyed blonde so the only Italian that had made it down to her was the surname.

 

[JimW]

Son Q's first girlfriend was the granddaughter of an Italian POW who didn't return home. She was a blue eyed blonde so the only Italian that had made it down to her was the surname.

Quite a few blonde people in Lombardy aren't there? You need the gene from both sides IIRC