UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[elbows]

This is the website that everyone will be directed to if blackouts are on the way:

http://www.energyemergencies.org.uk/

Not currently very informative...

Do you mind if I ask what source informed you that this would be the site?

The main reference to this site I found via casual searching online so far was this page, which looks into the details of the standard rota load management plans:

Rota Load | Nabuh Energy

Emergency Power Cuts are rare. They're only used to protect the power network during serious problems - find out more about Rota Load here

www.nabuhenergy.co.uk

I see they also point to powercut105.com, which can already be used for people to do stuff such as find out what their own 'block letter' is via postcode entry on this page: Find Your Electric Supplier | Report Power Cuts Free on 105

I see that lately some people online have started to investigate the details of this, including looking at what the standard rota plan disconnection timetables by block letter are, eg all the stuff at the end of this document: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/13121/download

I havent had time to see whether the press have also been poking around with this detail. As a nerd I have looked into it myself (Im in block Q) because I want to understand the system. But there are big limits into how much I can read into the detail of these plans, because of course we dont know how often these plans will actually end up needing to be triggered, how long they would last and which days of the week that will happen on, or which level of cuts they will feel the need to implement.

eg there is quite a big difference in how much disruption people would face even between a level 1 and a level 3, let alone the higher levels which ultimately end up at level 18 where power is cut to all blocks all of the time.

Plus we dont actually know if they will end up using these default rotas if the time comes, or fiddle with them. Given that the assumption is that any issues will be to do with meeting demand at peak times, its probably not too sensible for me to dwell on default schedules that cover all hours of the day on all days of the week. But if they face a situation where they want to spread the saving of gas for electricity generation out as broadly as possible, perhaps in some worst case scenarios they would stick with these sort of default rotas?

Some example rotas under two of the lower levels of demand reduction, to illustrate the above point:

And just to be completely clear, this stuff is part of long term plans that have been there for years, baked into the system guidelines, without most people paying attention to this detail. This stuff is not something they've just cobbled together to cope with this coming winter.

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you mind if I ask what source informed you that this would be the site?

The main reference to this site I found via casual searching online so far was this page, which looks into the details of the standard rota load management plans:

Rota Load | Nabuh Energy

Emergency Power Cuts are rare. They're only used to protect the power network during serious problems - find out more about Rota Load here

www.nabuhenergy.co.uk

I see they also point to powercut105.com, which can already be used for people to do stuff such as find out what their own 'block letter' is via postcode entry on this page: Find Your Electric Supplier | Report Power Cuts Free on 105

I see that lately some people online have started to investigate the details of this, including looking at what the standard rota plan disconnection timetables by block letter are, eg all the stuff at the end of this document: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/13121/download

I havent had time to see whether the press have also been poking around with this detail. As a nerd I have looked into it myself (Im in block Q) because I want to understand the system. But there are big limits into how much I can read into the detail of these plans, because of course we dont know how often these plans will actually end up needing to be triggered, how long they would last and which days of the week that will happen on, or which level of cuts they will feel the need to implement.

eg there is quite a big difference in how much disruption people would face even between a level 1 and a level 3, let alone the higher levels which ultimately end up at level 18 where power is cut to all blocks all of the time.

Plus we dont actually know if they will end up using these default rotas if the time comes, or fiddle with them. Given that the assumption is that any issues will be to do with meeting demand at peak times, its probably not too sensible for me to dwell on default schedules that cover all hours of the day on all days of the week. But if they face a situation where they want to spread the saving of gas for electricity generation out as broadly as possible, perhaps in some worst case scenarios they would stick with these sort of default rotas?

Some example rotas under two of the lower levels of demand reduction, to illustrate the above point:

And just to be completely clear, this stuff is part of long term plans that have been there for years, baked into the system guidelines, without most people paying attention to this detail. This stuff is not something they've just cobbled together to cope with this coming winter.

View attachment 350168
View attachment 350169

it was all in the mail last week or the week before

 

[elbows]

it was all in the mail last week or the week before

Cheers, that explains why various people on the internet had been looking for their block code and viewing those rotas recently.

Meanwhile the 'Demand Flexibility Service' is back in the news due to launching, though Im not sure this new wave of news stories adds anything to what we'd already found out on this thread in the past. So my opinion is still the same in regards things like the '12 test events' - these allow them to test the system and how many people take advantage of it, so they can be more confident of how much power it can save at peak times if they actually end up needing to use it to deal with a shortfall at any stage this winter. And it also means people have a reason to bother signing up, it means people are certain to have opportunities to get some money from it even if the grid dont end up needing to activate it on other occasions to reduce demand. That number of test events is why they are able to claim that it could save people £100 - obviously the amount depends on how much people reduce their usage compared to how much they normally use, so the £100 is based on certain assumptions about averages in this respect, but there will be the opportunity for some to save more than £100 if the system ends up being used beyond those test events.

Some of the reporting is still confusing though, and per-supplier variations will be an additional complication. For example this BBC article, despite saying the opportunity is to save 'up to £100', then says this which features Octopus believing there will actually be more like 25 days on offer, not 12:

Octopus Energy has already announced it will participate. It operated a trial scheme with 100,000 customers earlier this year, offering a much smaller discount for people who shifted their energy use away from peak times.

It believes there will be more days on offer - 25 in total compared to 12 planned so far - for households to be given the chance to cut down on energy use as the UK goes through the winter.

Money-off energy scheme launches to avoid blackouts

Households with smart meters could save up to £100 on bills if they cut peak-time use over winter.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Having paused for thought I suppose its the same old simple maths thats leading to the £100 and the 25 days thing - Octopus reckon £4 savings per session on average, and 25 x £4 is £100. So they have to factor in 25 days not 12 in order to make that claim / do that sort of marketing and promotion of the scheme.

 

[two sheds]

Had a 7 hour (edit: 19 hour ) power failure a couple of days ago – line came down in a field at the back of a neighbour’s and we're at the end of the line here.

Fairly painless since I’ve recorded loads of old R4 plays on my ancient mobile, playing through speakers of digital radio. Most concerning was the thought that I’d lose the contents of the (full) freezer. I did learn a couple of things. Mainly that a torch is no use to you when the lights go out if you’ve forgotten where you last put it down.

No phone reception in the valley so last time it happened I got an old POTS phone that works off the phone line, with power down the phone line I hear eventually going to be phased out which will be a bit inconvenient.

Western Power (as was) were actually really good, not only the poor fuckers who were out in the rain and brief heavy hail storm reconnecting it. Now automated when you phone and I got a message “It appears from your phone number that “your postcode is xxxx xxx, we’ve not had a notification of a fault in that area so we well send an engineer out”. Then got phone call telling me when they thought it would be on, and a phone call after it was on again to apologize for the inconvenience. Was impressed all round. And a bit of the old WWII spirit among neighbours under such adversity.

Also realized a heat pump’s not going to be much use in a power cut (although normally brief).

 

[elbows]

it was all in the mail last week or the week before

I had a poke around and it seems that a lot of the media were trying to make a story out of the default rota details. SO at least I can provide a non-Mail example:

Gloomy breakdown of the exact time your home could be hit by blackouts explained

Documents that were created before the current energy crisis show which households could be hit by a power cut - and when - as the National Grid issues a warning about blackouts

www.mirror.co.uk

They struggle with a similar issue I had with my post, in that the full default roster details cant really be turned into a succinct article or post. They decided to list a bunch of times for a level 1 disconnection in text form. People that are actually interested in these nerdy details are probably better off looking at the charts in the document I posted earlier, but please take the detail with a big pinch of salt due to all the unknowns about what circumstances we might actually face.

I forgot to mention earlier that some peoples bills will also show what block code your home/premises are in, but again I'll repeat that you can also find out your block code using the postcode checker here: Find Your Electric Supplier | Report Power Cuts Free on 105

It then appears in a box on the right like this:



Oh and here is an example of a recent press article showing a block letter on a bill:

What the tiny letter you've never noticed on your electricity bill actually means

It looks unassuming enough. But this letter actually carries huge potential significance.

uk.news.yahoo.com

 

[elbows]

Oh and here is another example of the sort of document energy suppliers have been coming out with which describes the system, the block codes, and also mentions the Energy Emergencies Executive website that was mentioned in this thread (the site that wasnt working).

https://www.merseysideprepared.org.uk/media/1241/briefing-paper-rota-load-and-black-start.pdf

Once you have your Rota Block letter you then need to know when that letter will be switched off and on. The Schedule of Rota Load Disconnections will be published through National & Local TV and/or Radio Stations. (The Energy Emergencies Executive website is currently being upgraded to provide this information along with the development of a smart phone and tablet app). You will receive 48hrs notice of Rota Load disconnection being introduced.

Also includes a page about Black Start, if the entire system went down and needed restarting via designated black start power stations.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think some people especially under-40s have been lucky enough to live in areas that haven't experienced any notable power cuts in their lifetime, so they view the prospect as some sort of descent into a third-world nightmare.

Three hours is pretty typical for the sort of routine cable fault that causes numerous such localized power cuts every day around the country. I guess it depends what area you live in.

My electrics go out for a few minutes every few weeks, last serious one was maybe two hours a few years ago

 

[elbows]

By the way I still have absolutely no way to predict whether all this info will actually be needed this winter. But its sensible that efforts are being made to educate people about this, and I suppose that, much like certain things during the pandemic, the very act of this stuff being talked about in the press etc can have an affect on behaviour that ends up reducing the risk of the shit hitting the fan.

Even if we dont need this stuff this winter, I keep bumping into articles about how europe is expected to be in even bigger shit with energy in the following winter after this one, so I guess we will need to be prepared for these eventualities for some years to come.

 

[two sheds]

Yes my view is that if you prepare it won't happen and if you don't prepare it will happen.

 

[MrCurry]

Even if we dont need this stuff this winter, I keep bumping into articles about how europe is expected to be in even bigger shit with energy in the following winter after this one, so I guess we will need to be prepared for these eventualities for some years to come.

Why might the situation be expected to be worse next winter?

 

[Saunders]

Had a 7 hour power failure a couple of days ago – line came down in a field at the back of a neighbour’s and we're at the end of the line here.

Fairly painless since I’ve recorded loads of old R4 plays on my ancient mobile, playing through speakers of digital radio. Most concerning was the thought that I’d lose the contents of the (full) freezer. I did learn a couple of things. Mainly that a torch is no use to you when the lights go out if you’ve forgotten where you last put it down.

No phone reception in the valley so last time it happened I got an old POTS phone that works off the phone line, with power down the phone line I hear eventually going to be phased out which will be a bit inconvenient.

Western Power (as was) were actually really good, not only the poor fuckers who were out in the rain and brief heavy hail storm reconnecting it. Now automated when you phone and I got a message “It appears from your phone number that “your postcode is xxxx xxx, we’ve not had a notification of a fault in that area so we well send an engineer out”. Then got phone call telling me when they thought it would be on, and a phone call after it was on again to apologize for the inconvenience. Was impressed all round. And a bit of the old WWII spirit among neighbours under such adversity.

Also realized a heat pump’s not going to be much use in a power cut (although normally brief).

Yes I’ve found them(western power) to be great as well, similar incidents here a few times. Very annoyingly, when I moved into this place the BT engineer put a digital line in so the land line, which I only really need for emergencies, is redundant in event of a power cut. Luckily there’s old copper wire next door and a dial phone, if the power is down.
The phasing out of the old telephone system is a crap plan for remote places with no mobile signal which is much of round here.

 

[elbows]

Why might the situation be expected to be worse next winter?

I presume its to do largely with gas storage - continental europe has managed to fill up its gas storage ahead of this winter. That will get depleted this winter and then there is presumed to be big issues with managing to refill it before the subsequent winter. Because of Russia etc.

 

[elbows]

Anotehr national grid webpage about the demand flexibility service.

Unlike my maths speculation earlier, they say that the £100 thing is based on the 12 tests of the system that are sure to happen.

The ESO’s Demand Flexibility Service | ESO

Find out why we have introduced the service, how you can take part and more in this DFS explainer.

www.nationalgrideso.com

To ensure that there is a benefit for consumers if supplies are unaffected this winter, the ESO will run a maximum of 12 demonstration tests with each electricity supplier and aggregator between November and March 2023.

These demonstration tests will have a guaranteed minimum price of £3KWh, meaning that a typical household could save approximately £100 across the maximum 12 demonstration tests.

Demonstration tests will run for one hour, however live events could run for a longer period. There are no penalties for not participating once you have signed up to the DFS or notified your electricity provider that you will take part in a demonstration test or live event. In order to be eligible to receive an incentive from your provider you do however have to participate.

If you sign up to DFS you will need to authorise your provider to access your smart meter so they can read your data every half-hour for the duration of the service 1st November 2022 to 31st March 2023.

All participating electricity providers will be listed on the ESO website soon, and will be updated as new providers join the DFS.

 

[moochedit]

This is the website that everyone will be directed to if blackouts are on the way:

http://www.energyemergencies.org.uk/

Not currently very informative...

How will we read it with no power?

 

[elbows]

They are supposed to give us advanced warning since the idea of that system is to plan this stuff in advance and reduce demand at key moments via planned blackouts. I think 48 hours notice has been mentioned, but certain circumstances could I suppose reduce the notice period.

 

[elbows]

The wind record set the other week was broken again this week:

The UK just set a landmark wind energy generation record

The UK's onshore and offshore wind farms generated more than 20 GW for the first time yesterday, setting a new record.

electrek.co

 

[platinumsage]

Do you mind if I ask what source informed you that this would be the site?

Point #4 under "Nationwide planned emergency power cuts due to power shortages" on this page.

 

[gentlegreen]

Just to wind me up, my electrics went on the blink this morning and after an hour of isolating circuits, unplugging stuff and running up and down stairs, all I am left with is that my main breaker was having a funny five minutes.
I'd gone to the kitchenette at 6am to bake bread and switched on the work lights - a branded 5 volt transformer off the dedicated spur... but subsequently all sorts of things on different circuits would trip the thing whereas quite a few other loads were not a problem.
Now I'm back to being able to plug a fan heater in everywhere.

It went off for a third time this morning - as usual around the time I needed to put the bread on and after a lot of farting around started considering an action plan - as all I had was lighting and the Interwebs on my phone... and contemplated walking to the electrical place down the road...

Eventually I phoned my brother who actually knows what he's doing and he reminded me that neutral to earth faults is a thing and that domestic breakers are only single pole... at that moment I got the urge to sweep the hall and accidentally the seal on the main fuse ... and ripped out all the unused wiring - neutrals and earths as well as live.

There's clearly something dodgy happening in what was once the kitchen.
I suspect there was sufficient leakage to hair-tigger the RCD and various things - both earthed and double-insulated, high power and low power then set it off... But why at almost exactly the same time in the morning 3 times ? some rat down there taking the piss ...

Saved me wasting money on new kit ... and doubtless if I'd fitted a new CU, I would in any case not have fitted the unused circuits - thereby clearing the fault - and I would have been none the wiser...

 

[elbows]

Pressure on the European system due to Frances current nuclear issues is something I said I would cover here since it can have knock on consequences for the UK.

More corrosion problems have now been confirmed at a number of power stations in France, forcing EDF to lower their nuclear generation estimates for the coming period. Although some of the reduced output was already expected by analysts since they viewed EDFs previous plans as overly optimistic.

Four reactors with stress corrosion that account for 5.4 gigawatts (GW) of power are now no longer expected to return to operation this month or next, with their restarts moved to late January and February, EDF data showed. [POWER/FR]

Two of the reactors, the Penly 2 and Cattenom 3, were confirmed to have stress corrosion on Friday, which caused their restart to be delayed, the company said.

This is in addition to the Cattenom 1 reactor, which was confirmed to have stress corrosion issues by the nuclear safety authority (ASN) on Thursday evening.

At the end of the article the prospect of large industrial users shedding much of their load if the weather turns cold is mentioned, and thats certainly one way to try to balance supply and demand if the weather isnt kind this winter.

EDF's lower output forecast may threaten France's winter power supply

By Forrest Crellin

www.euronews.com

 

[elbows]

The graph in this tweet provides a sense of how much of Frances nuclear capability has been brought back on line so far, how much is still planned to come back in the coming weeks, and the difference between an earlier forecast, the reality so far, and the latest forecast:

 

[elbows]

Wind has been performing excellently so far in November. I've started to collect data about this so that I dont end up viewing the picture only in terms of new records at brief individual moments in time. I'll do some graphs at some point.

The recent supply and demand balance even meant that the UK balancing price went well into negative territory for many hours in a row last night.

The mild weather so far has also been good news, with European gas storage now thought to be pretty much full, and electricity demand kept down.

Half of the interconnector capacity that was knocked out by a fire the other year, for the IFA connector that links us to France, has now been restored. And the remaining missing capacity sounds like it will be restored in December. Although how good this news is in practice for UK security of supply is somewhat dependant on how well France do at restoring a big chunk of their missing nuclear capacity. Under some scenarios it will end up being more helpful to France than to us, if we end up exporting to them more than the other way around.

This Guardian article, based on the words of the national grid bloke, covers a few of the above things, and also mentions that the 'vast majority' of suppliers have signed up to the demand flexibility service. But it doesnt cover everything I've mentioned in this post, and the talk about the restored interconnector is entirely missing the context of Frances nuclear woes.

Winter power cuts in UK unlikely, says National Grid boss

Worst-case scenario of rolling blackouts unlikely with milder weather and crucial electricity link to France back on line

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

The graph in this tweet provides a sense of how much of Frances nuclear capability has been brought back on line so far, how much is still planned to come back in the coming weeks, and the difference between an earlier forecast, the reality so far, and the latest forecast:

Since this was supposed to be a busy period for French nuclear restarts, I've been keeping an eye on it.

So far of the reactors previously scheduled to come back in the last week and over the next week:

1 managed to restart yesterday and is gradually ramping up power over the next few days.
1 restarted 4 days ago but the restart was very quickly aborted, waiting to see if they try again tomorrow (as currently scheduled) or keep pushing the date further into the future.
4 others had their restart dates pushed back by 9-10 days so far.

There were 10 scheduled restarts during this period, waiting to see if the remaining 4 + the previously aborted one happen during this period (up to Nov 19th) or get pushed back.

Meanwhile the weather is still being kind, although the period of very impressive wind came to an end a few days ago.

 

[Serge Forward]

If power cuts end up cutting into my gaming time, then I'm going to be very annoyed. Might pass the time imagining what it would be like to repeatedly kick Putin in the face.

We had loads more gaming time back in the 70s. It was ace. Though you might not be so keen on Monopoly by candlelight.

 

[Sasaferrato]

I do not like the concept of smart meters. Having one installed will not benefit ME one iota. We have been careful energy users all our married lives, over 47 years. We do not waste energy.

I did know that that the smart meter can be used to increase your tariff at times of high usage, but until yesterday, I did not know that your payment method can be altered remotely. Smart meters can be switched from quarterly in arrears to pre-payment by the electricity company remotely, and with no recourse on the part of the customer.

 

[StoneRoad]

I do not like the concept of smart meters. Having one installed will not benefit ME one iota. We have been careful energy users all our married lives, over 47 years. We do not waste energy.

I did know that that the smart meter can be used to increase your tariff at times of high usage, but until yesterday, I did not know that your payment method can be altered remotely. Smart meters can be switched from quarterly in arrears to pre-payment by the electricity company remotely, and with no recourse on the part of the customer.

BiB - yeah, customers have been on about this recently. I think OFGEM have been notified about the problem.

hang on for a minute, I think the beeb covered this subject. Let me see if I can find a link.

e2a - here we are

Energy firms remotely swap homes to prepay meters

The regulator said some "vulnerable customers had been left without power for days or even weeks".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Sasaferrato]

BiB - yeah, customers have been on about this recently. I think OFGEM have been notified about the problem.

hang on for a minute, I think the beeb covered this subject. Let me see if I can find a link.

e2a - here we are

Energy firms remotely swap homes to prepay meters

The regulator said some "vulnerable customers had been left without power for days or even weeks".

www.bbc.co.uk

Aye, I listen to the radio in the shower, which is around noon usually, it was the consumer program that was on and where I heard it.

 

[Serge Forward]

Mrs Forward, who is in charge of all bills (cos I'm clueless with finances) has always said smart meters are a con job and total balls.

 

[MrCurry]

One potential benefit of smart meters, if the suppliers care to implement it, is giving consumers much more information about their consumption. I can log into my supplier‘s website and see hourly consumption data right up to the previous day, which helps me understand just how much it costs to run the dishwasher, put the oven on, etc compared to my baseline consumption.

 

[two sheds]

Useful, although the £15 power meter upthread will tell you the power consumption of the individual pieces of equipment,.

I had a phone call from my energy provider offering me a smart meter. "No mobile reception in the valley" "Ah ok thank you, goodbye"