UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[WouldBe]

what make/model is it?

I'll have to ask her when she's round tomorrow.

 

[elbows]

The link says the trial will take part if Feb and march so any actual scheme won't take place this winter.

February and March this year, that trial already happened.

 

[WouldBe]

February and March this year, that trial already happened.

Sure? It said not enough wanted to sign up at only 52p which is why it's been increased to £3 per kWh.

 

[elbows]

“Customers who take part will receive a financial incentive if they reduce their power consumption below their usual levels”

National Grid ESO and Octopus Energy launch trial to unleash demand flexibility this winter | ESO

National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) and Octopus Energy are launching a pioneering real-time project to determine if flexibility in household electricity can help better match supply and demand on the electricity grid this winter.

www.nationalgrideso.com

No point increasing your average consumption because it would cost a lot more to do that than you’d ever receive from this scheme which would only operate on occasional days if at all.

Why do you think the scheme will operate only on occasional days? Thats not my understanding at all, I dont think this scheme is designed to only run on days where they fear supply might not meet demand.

The main question so far is whether all the energy suppliers will sign up to it.

 

[WouldBe]

Why do you think the scheme will operate only on occasional days? Thats not my understanding at all, I dont think this scheme is designed to only run on days where they fear supply might not meet demand.

The main question so far is whether all the energy suppliers will sign up to it.

Which is why it can't be fully implemented this year.

 

[elbows]

Sure? It said not enough wanted to sign up at only 52p which is why it's been increased to £3 per kWh.

Yes I am sure. You can read about that past trial and their new scheme here:

Results from the past trial helped them develop a sense of how much money would need to be offered to customers to get a suitable uptake for the real thing.

Blackout Busters: Octopus Energy customers could make £100 whilst helping end power cuts

octopus.energy

 

[elbows]

Which is why it can't be fully implemented this year.

The national grid are hoping to shave 2GW off demand at peak times using the scheme, they want it to be a meaningful thing starting in November.

Some of the current confusion will go away once more details are actually available.

Having read the Octopus stuff I posted above it turns out I may well be wrong with my assumption a few posts ago about the scheme operating all the time, but whether I still disagree with platinumsage depends on how seldom they expect the scheme to be active.

 

[elbows]

The best guess about frequency of these opportunities is via the Octopus press release blurb, where the figure they are throwing around of customers saving £100 over winter is based on:

a customer who turns down 1kWh in ~25 events (1-2 per week) at an average £4/kWh

So yeah I was wrong about how often this scheme is expected to operate this winter.

 

[WouldBe]

Yes I am sure. You can read about that past trial and their new scheme here:

Results from the past trial helped them develop a sense of how much money would need to be offered to customers to get a suitable uptake for the real thing.

Blackout Busters: Octopus Energy customers could make £100 whilst helping end power cuts

octopus.energy

Not a new scheme it's a new trial. They only got funding for this new trial in August this year so can't already have done it.

 

[elbows]

Not a new scheme it's a new trial. They only got funding for this new trial in August this year so can't already have done it.

You are getting on my nerves now.

The Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) has been developed to allow the ESO to access additional flexibility when the national demand is at its highest – during peak winter days – which is not currently accessible to the ESO in real time. This new innovative service will allow consumers, as well as some industrial and commercial users (through suppliers/aggregators), to be incentivised for voluntarily flexing the time when they use their electricity.

As part of a range of tools designed to help manage the electricity system this winter, we want to collaborate with energy suppliers/aggregators to allow participating consumers and businesses to reduce their bills this winter.

Earlier this year, we ran a trial with Octopus Energy, where we successfully proved the proof of concept for a demand flexibility service. Following this, we have worked with suppliers, aggregators and consumer groups to scale this up to a national service to support this winter.

Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) | ESO

The Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) was introduced in winter (22/23) to access additional flexibility typically over winter peak days when national demand is at its highest.

www.nationalgrideso.com

 

[elbows]

Although to be fair the way they are talking about this is also getting on my nerves, and I am getting on my own nerves.

eg that page I just linked to said that they said they will carry out a maximum of 12 tests for participants entering from 1st November.

So now I'm going to have to read further documents to improver my understanding. I'll start with some presentation they just gave:

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/269071/download

 

[WouldBe]

You are getting on my nerves now.

Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) | ESO

The Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) was introduced in winter (22/23) to access additional flexibility typically over winter peak days when national demand is at its highest.

www.nationalgrideso.com

This service is open to as many participants as possible, who need to meet the following requirements:

• All assets would require half-hourly metering.
• All assets must be able to respond for a minimum of 30 minutes.
• 1 MW min unit size/100 MW max unit size.
• Providers need to be able to respond to an instruction for day-ahead delivery.
• Providers must provide relevant HH metering and baselining data to demonstrate delivery of demand reduction.

The following exclusions apply:

• Assets that are dispatchable via the Balancing Mechanism, or participate in Ancillary services or DNO services.
• Assets that have a Capacity Market contract.

How the service will work​

• DFS begins on 1 November 2022.
• ESO will run a maximum of 12 tests for participants entering from 1 November 2022, where participants will receive dispatch instructions with the opportunity to receive a Guaranteed Acceptance Price for tests.

1MW min unit size? Sounds more like that applies to business not domestic customers.

There are a max of 12 tests from Nov this year so doesn't sound like a full blown scheme to me.

 

[two sheds]

My sister's ups can power her TV and PVR and other light usage stuff for around 4-5 hours.

sorry yes I remember now there are some - as I recall they cost about a grand so I wrote them out of my memory

 

[WouldBe]

sorry yes I remember now there are some - as I recall they cost about a grand so I wrote them out of my memory

Don't think my sis would have spent anywhere near that amount.

 

[two sheds]

Interesting - would indeed like to know more (bit late now for me though), I did look for some a few months ago

 

[elbows]

1MW min unit size? Sounds more like that applies to business not domestic customers.

There are a max of 12 tests from Nov this year so doesn't sound like a full blown scheme to me.

The MW stuff is how they pay the energy suppliers, not the magnitude of the units the final customer has to be able to save:

This money will be paid to suppliers in the form of a £3,000 per megawatt hour (MW/h) minimum price, and those payments could go higher.

Slye said he was “confident” the scheme could free up about 2 gigawatts (GW) of power, enough for about 1m homes.

So the suppliers get paid by the MWh and then they pass that on to consumers via smaller units at the £3 per kWh rate.

National Grid to pay households more to use off-peak power

Homes with smart meters to be paid £3 per KW hour to boost use at night and take strain off power grid

www.theguardian.com

I did not find more useful info in other documents. For now my presumption is that those 'maximum of 12' tests they will run will be done to get everyone familiar with the system, and that those are separate from the occasions where they will also activate the system due to actual concerns about supply shortage on particular days. And nobody will be able to predict accurately how many of those desperate days will actually happen this winter.

 

[elbows]

I may as well quote the other Guardian article since it contains the usual mix of concerns but combined with the usual positive spin from the national grid bloke. Some of these words might come back to haunt them, or not, they are hedging their bets.

UK homes can become virtual power plants to avoid outages

A National Grid director sets out plan to reward homes and businesses for using energy outside of peak hours

www.theguardian.com

We need to be clear, it is possible that without these measures supply could be interrupted for some customers for limited periods of time. This could eventually force us to initiate a temporary rota of planned electricity outages, meaning that some customers could be without power for up to three hours at a time through a process called the electricity supply emergency code (ESEC).

Under the ESEC process we would advise the public the day before any disconnections. We are working with government and industry on planning for this so that the message can be spread across all communities as quickly and accurately as possible. This would include press conferences, social media campaigns, and working with influencers in different communities.

That’s the worst-case scenario, which our analysis tells us is unlikely to become a reality. Our base case is that security of supply margins will be adequate through the winter. We will do everything in our power to mitigate and minimise any risks to Britain’s security of supply.

We are better placed than our neighbours on the continent to respond because Britain already has one of the cleanest, most reliable electricity systems in the world. Long-term, maintaining this lead will help guarantee our energy security and keep costs down.

 

[elbows]

I suppose I wont be utterly shocked if Russia indulges in some further shenanigans this winter that then become a big part of the narrative of why the 'unlikely scenario' does become reality. Or if not, there is always the chance that weather or other factors could lead to the same sort of situation.

Or not, I too must hedge my bets, since a fairly wide spectrum of possibilities exist on both the supply and demand front this winter. We might end up with a fair bit of wiggle room, or we might end up right in the shit.

 

[elbows]

I'm starting to talk about the IEAs energy outlook report this year in the climate thread, dealing with a whole bunch of stuff related to climate change etc etc ( IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 ). But there is one thing I wanted to quote from the full report that has particular relevance to this thread:

EU gas storage facilities were more than 90% full in early October 2022, a considerable achievement given the cuts to Russian supply over the course of the year. In combination with lower demand and continued strong inflows from non‐Russian sources, this opens a narrow but potentially safe pathway for Europe through the northern hemisphere winter months, albeit at highly elevated prices, on condition that the weather does not turn too cold. However, the balances for 2023‐2024 look more challenging.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Generator sales are likely to be on the up.

I bought one last month.

 

[ViolentPanda]

You could get an electrician to put the central heating on a 3 pin plug instead of wired into a fused spur then you can just unplug it from its normal socket and plug it into the inverter incase of a power cut.

Did that with a friend's boiler. Removed the spur & put a 3 pin socket in, then put a 3 pin plug on the boiler's lead. Put a gennie in her shed (it was in her garage), put an earth spike in, & wired it all up, ready to go if/when needed.

 

[Humberto]

Did that with a friend's boiler. Removed the spur & put a 3 pin socket in, then put a 3 pin plug on the boiler's lead. Put a gennie in her shed (it was in her garage), put an earth spike in, & wired it all up, ready to go if/when needed.

At least I didn't call Jesus a dogfucking shitcunt like you.

 

[elbows]

We need to hope the wind keeps blowing during any prolonged cold period, here's a couple of screen shots I've had lurking in a folder, both taken around 6am.

This was a good day, on 5/10/22, showing wind producing over 65% of electric, and gas under 20%, with us exporting almost 20%.

A record was apparently broken last Wednesday, not that it offers many clues about our fate this winter.

Wind power sets new UK generation record - edie

The UK has set a new national record for wind generation this week, with windfarms generating almost 20GW of electricity during a 30-minute window on Wednesday (26 October).

www.edie.net

The UK’s windfarms set the new generation record at 11:30 on Wednesday. Windfarms provided 19,936MW of electricity, accounting for more than 52% of total energy demand, according to data from the National Grid ESO.

This new milestone beats the previous 30-minute generating record that was set on 25 May earlier this year. Wind also generated more electricity for the grid than ever before over a 90-minute period.

The data also revealed that, as a whole, wind accounted for half of the country’s power needs on Wednesday. While the generation, in terms of MW, is a record, the highest percentage of electricity generated from wind over a 30-minute window still stands a 64%, which was set on 29 January this year.

 

[platinumsage]

An interesting piece outing the need for greater interconnection that an increased renewable share brings:

Europe’s gas and electrical grids need expanding

The Ukraine war has shown the perils of market fragmentation

www.economist.com

 

[elbows]

Yes, although I cannot read that article in full its certainly a big part of the picture, and would still be so even if the Russian stuff hadnt happened.

Ther net zero scenario discussed in this years IEA world energy outlook paints a picture where wind becomes the dominant electricity source in Europe, and as a result of that and some other issues the concept of 'flexibility' comes up. I wont attempt to describe right now all the aspects which fall under the flexibility banner, but storage, grid sophistication and demand flexibility are very much a part of that mix.

Deployment of solar PV and wind power accelerates in all scenarios, setting new records every year to 2030: by mid‐century their combined share of these two technologies in the electricity mix reaches 45% in the STEPS and 60% in the APS. Within ten years, if countries are taking the necessary action to deliver on their climate pledges, the world will be deploying around 210 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity each year and 370 GW of solar. The balance of deployment varies by region and country. In the United States and India, for example, solar PV becomes the leading technology. By contrast, the European Union moves towards an electricity system dominated by onshore and offshore wind, with both sources combined accounting for more than 40% of total generation in 2050 in the STEPS and over 50% in the APS and NZE Scenario.

(STEPS, APS and NZE mean the three scenarios they look at in the report. With STEPS meaning a scenario based on existing policies, APS meaning a future based on already announced pledges, and NZE being a scenario where global net zero is actually achieved by 2050)

The huge rise in the share of solar PV and wind in total generation in all scenarios fundamentally reshapes the power system and significantly increases the demand for power system flexibility to maintain electricity security. This puts a premium on dispatchable low‐ emissions technologies, such as hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal. It also encourages new approaches such as the co‐firing of ammonia in coal plants and low‐emissions hydrogen in natural gas plants, as well as some retrofits of existing power plants with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Regions with high shares of solar PV relative to wind tend to see higher relative levels of battery deployment than regions in which wind predominates, such as China or the European Union, because the short‐duration storage that batteries provide is well suited to smooth out the daily cycle of solar PV‐based electricity generation. Regions where wind is the leading power generation technology tend to rely on a wider range of sources of flexibility.

A graph I just posted in my thread about that report, showing where investment needs to go to achieve a net zero scenario also demonstrates how much effort is required for developing electricity grids: #4

I dont think the report covers it, but I also keep an open mind about whether in the longer term Europes solutions to the flexibility requirements also include importing electricity from regions that have far more solar generation potential.

 

[moochedit]

I'm confused as to whether broadcast entities will be required to power down during blackout hours

I may be wrong but i would assume tv companies have ups's or/and generators for this situation.

 

[gentlegreen]

As CERN's physics programme has evolved and expanded, physicists at the laboratory have used more powerful accelerators and detectors to study the fundamental particles. The laboratory has had to innovate to keep up with electrical demands. CERN uses 1.3 terawatt hours of electricity annually. That’s enough power to fuel 300,000 homes for a year in the United Kingdom. But the energy needed changes from month to month, as the seasons shift and the experimental requirements are adjusted.

At peak consumption, usually from May to mid-December, CERN uses about 200 megawatts of power, which is about a third of the amount of energy used to feed the nearby city of Geneva in Switzerland. The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) runs during this period of the year, using the power to accelerate protons to nearly the speed of light. CERN's power consumption falls to about 80 megawatts during the winter months.

Powering CERN

home.cern

Taking measures to save energy

In line with the strategic objectives of the current CERN Management, CERN has been working on a plan to improve the Organization’s energy management in the long term. However, the current energy crisis makes the need to save energy ever more pressing now, and measures are being implemented for...

home.cern

 

[platinumsage]

This is the website that everyone will be directed to if blackouts are on the way:

http://www.energyemergencies.org.uk/

Not currently very informative...

 

[two sheds]

power cut?

 

[gentlegreen]

Plus it's old school HTTP which will no doubt upset some devices ...

https://uk.godaddy.com/whois/results.aspx?checkAvail=1&tmskey=&domain=www.energyemergencies.org.uk

Registrar:
Solsoft Group Limited [Tag = SOLSOFT]
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