Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[teqniq]

That is pretty much the only silver lining. Even though I will vote leave for reasons I've already given I feel we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

 

[brogdale]

Yep. That said, pretty much any result is going to cause trouble for them.

If I were a betting man, I'd be backing a R:L result of low 60's to high 30's, but 51:49 has to be the dream 'tory-killer' scenario.

 

[kabbes]

Gotta lol at how principled the swivel-eyed loons are...

Ironic spelling mistakes ahoy!

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has REMAIN back with in lead from the level pegging. Actual figures are 40% to 39% so all within margin of errot.

 

[Dogsauce]

If I were a betting man, I'd be backing a R:L result of low 60's to high 30's, but 51:49 has to be the dream 'tory-killer' scenario.

51:49, with the added comedy augmentation of only being carried by Scottish votes, so all those 'ENGLISH not BRITISH' types that pollute local newspaper comment sections collapse under the weight of their own victimhood.

I'm less confident that remain will carry it, down to the motivation to vote factor, but I reckon the noise as the day approaches might get people out.

 

[Wilf]

If I were a betting man, I'd be backing a R:L result of low 60's to high 30's, but 51:49 has to be the dream 'tory-killer' scenario.

That's about my guess as well. Respective turnout for yes and no will (obviously) be important but it's hard to get a feel for that, the whole campaign on both sides feels a bit flat. Ultimately though, a significant victory for remain. Also, very few if any defections from tory to ukip. Whole thing has a damp squib feel, except for firming up some of the tory divisions.

 

[Dogsauce]

At least there's a chance it'll shoot down Boris's chance for the top job, as a leader he'd be dangerous, and people fall for the whole 'bit of a character' routine which gives him better electability than some of the other weird specimens.

 

[The Boy]

If I were a betting man, I'd be backing a R:L result of low 60's to high 30's, but 51:49 has to be the dream 'tory-killer' scenario.

With a strong Leave vote in England and strong Remain vote in Scotland, Wales and NI. I admit that would make me chuckle.

edit: damn you Dogsauce

 

[Kaka Tim]

I've seen lots of articles from remain types getting hysterical about how shit their campaign is and the polls look tight.
I still think remain will win - but I think it will be pretty tight and a vote for leave is definitely within the bounds of possibility.
Agree that a slender vote for remain will be the worst case scenario of the tories - amongst a whole smorgasbord of toxic options for them.

 

[butchersapron]

My suspicion is that the DKs - the ones who are going to decide this - are going to go with remain out of fear they'll lose money and what they and their cheerleaders will paint as 'being pragmatic'. In reality, that means they don't really care and want to be left alone with as little change to them as possible. That sort of approach is not going to be attracted to leave, to what is being portrayed across almost the entirety of the establishment, of those who have a public voice, as a risk, or worse as A THREAT.

 

[redsquirrel]

There's more than a few posters on this board who are going along with that type of risk/threat message, as the last couple of pages of this thread show - "instability in the markets"

 

[butchersapron]

There's more than a few posters on this board who are going along with that type of message, as the last couple of pages of this thread show - "instability in the markets"

Allows them to suggest they're concerned for the good of the nation when they ask capital how high they should jump.

 

[Kaka Tim]

So the question for the left is - Who best to protect us from the inequities of neo-liberalism - the Daleks of the ECB or Atlanticist headbangers like Johnson and Farage?

 

[teqniq]

neither really lol

 

[magneze]

8% rise in income tax if we exit according to Osborne. Clown.

 

[redsquirrel]

Surely the question isn't which section of capital is will protect us the best but what is the best way for us to attack capital

 

[brogdale]

My suspicion is that the DKs - the ones who are going to decide this - are going to go with remain out of fear they'll lose money and what they and their cheerleaders will paint as 'being pragmatic'. In reality, that means they don't really care and want to be left alone with as little change to them as possible. That sort of approach is not going to be attracted to leave, to what is being portrayed across almost the entirety of the establishment, of those who have a public voice, as a risk, or worse as A THREAT.

Yes, the radical free-market fundamentalism of the Conservative rebels comes up against the innate conservatism of much of their core support. I think there's some in the bubble who are mistakenly interpreting the high degree of Brexitism amongst local tory activists as indicative of widespread Leavism amongst their voters.

 

[butchersapron]

So the question for the left is - Who best to protect us from the inequities of neo-liberalism - the Daleks of the ECB or Atlanticist headbangers like Johnson and Farage?

Neither of course, the question as regards this should really be what best will help disorganse the forces of neo-liberalism across europe and globally?

edit: as rs has said above already.

 

[teqniq]

I know it's a pet hate of mine but ensuring that we don't sign up to TTIP under any circumstances is likely fuck up capital interests to some degree. It's a complete crock of shit.

 

[Kaka Tim]

But for most people the question will be - What option best protects me and mine? On that basis for most people its probably remain.

 

[teqniq]

I imagine that you are probably right. My best case scenario is a narrow win for either leave or remain, as this is most likely to do maximum damage to the vermin.

 

[Virtual Blue]

8% rise in income tax if we exit according to Osborne. Clown.

...throws toys out of pram.

 

[Wilf]

8% rise in income tax if we exit according to Osborne. Clown.

I was just about to post that
UK would lose £36bn in tax receipts if it left EU, Treasury report says

For once, a below the line guardianista has it right:

It's fun to watch Osborne turn his raw sewage cannon on his party's own base like this.

I mean, we on the left have been putting up with this for years - almost total fabrications, over-simplifications, outright lies and made-up numbers with only a tangential relation to reality released as a barrage on the public like an aerial bombardment of heavy bullshit bombs.

And it was all cheered on and repeated as gospel as the very people being subjected to it now.

A man of more generous spirit than me wouldn't laugh...

 

[teqniq]

Lol the indy strapline to this story has him saying that: 'Brexit campaigners 'economically illiterate and dishonest'. People in glass houses etc... This is going to go down like a lead balloon with some of the party faithful. Throw some more petrol on George!

 

[binka]

What do we think turnout might be? Would a narrow win for either side on a below 50% turn out likely lead to questions of legitimacy from the losers?

 

[gosub]

What do we think turnout might be? Would a narrow win for either side on a below 50% turn out likely lead to questions of legitimacy from the losers?

Its going to be a lot lower than the Scotish referendum. I can see some logic in Remain bitching about turnout if they lose, I don't see how that would work for Leave

 

[redsquirrel]

What do we think turnout might be? Would a narrow win for either side on a below 50% turn out likely lead to questions of legitimacy from the losers?

Definitely, and if in the unlikely event of leave wins it will be used in order to make the case for a second vote.

 

[Wilf]

What do we think turnout might be? Would a narrow win for either side on a below 50% turn out likely lead to questions of legitimacy from the losers?

Remain winning, with less than 50% of the electorate + treasury hysteria will feature heavily in falange's post result speeches.

I haven't seen much about it in relation to the referendum, but the state of the electoral register is one of the few reasons for brexit optimism. From memory, Labour were talking about 1m missing voters at the last general election, largely young. Since then we've also had individual registration. That's all going to have some bearing on the percentages, if not the overall result.

 

[binka]

Its going to be a lot lower than the Scotish referendum. I can see some logic in Remain bitching about turnout if they lose, I don't see how that would work for Leave

I don't think the tory & ukip leaves will be too bothered about having a logical argument for the illegitimacy of a narrow remain on a low turnout. They are swivel-eyed loons afterall!

 

[butchersapron]

The idea of the vote putting a lid on anything - either in terms of formal party politics, or just the way that people relate to the EU in everyday talk - is a fantasy. No one really recognises the ultimate legitimacy of the referendum or the finished nature of the outcome. I certainly don't see why anyone coming from the same position that i do should.

 

[gosub]

I don't think the tory & ukip leaves will be too bothered about having a logical argument for the illegitimacy of a narrow remain on a low turnout. They are swivel-eyed loons afterall!

They walk on two legs too. Which is BAAAAAAD!