Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[newbie]

Surely the question isn't which section of capital is will protect us the best but what is the best way for us to attack capital

it's a great idea but there is virtually no evidence of any part of the British working class attcking capital for decades. Is there?

 

[newbie]

The idea of the vote putting a lid on anything - either in terms of formal party politics, or just the way that people relate to the EU in everyday talk - is a fantasy. No one really recognises the ultimate legitimacy of the referendum or the finished nature of the outcome. I certainly don't see why anyone coming from the same position that i do should.

There'll be a period of realignment, during which many tories will realise they've been hit below the waterline and sink, quietly or otherwise. After that I reckon it'll neutralise the question as far as practical politics goes, in the much the same way as arguments about proportional representation became completely irrelevant after the AV vote.

 

[butchersapron]

There'll be a period of realignment, during which many tories will realise they've been hit below the waterline and sink, quietly or otherwise. After that I reckon it'll neutralise the question as far as practical politics goes, in the much the same way as arguments about proportional representation became completely irrelevant after the AV vote.

This has been going on rather a long time and is clearly a niche issue with some material base within the tory party and right (and those outside but you you talk about the tories) - rather than a niche issue with a leadership who had a one-off chance at something like the lib-dem AV shambles. It's not going away no matter what the result. Could AV or PR have led to the multi-milion votes of UKIP etc in the elections over the last 30 years? if it could be quieted away in those 30 years, why hasn't it been?

Edit: re-alignment from what to what?

 

[butchersapron]

Not sure what that pic/attachment is - doesn't work for me.

 

[newbie]

This has been going on rather a long time and is clearly a niche issue with some material base within the tory party and right (and those outside but you you talk about the tories) - rather than a niche issue with a leadership who had a one-off chance at something like the lib-dem AV shambles. It's not going away no matter what the result. Could AV or PR have led to the multi-milion votes of UKIP etc in the elections over the last 30 years? if it could be quieted away in those 30 years, why hasn't it been?

Edit: re-alignment from what to what?

there's no doubt it's got a base, and those people are not going to vanish, but their political representation will be damaged by both the result and the subsequent purge of losers from most grassroots positions of influence. Without the EU to campaign on trhey'll have to focus on other things, principally immigration.

Not sure what that pic/attachment is - doesn't work for me.

phew. it was in the clipboard and posted by mistake

 

[butchersapron]

there's no doubt it's got a base, and those people are not going to vanish, but their political representation will be damaged by both the result and the subsequent purge of losers from most grassroots positions of influence. Without the EU to campaign on trhey'll have to focus on other things, principally immigration.

But they'll always have the EU to campaign on. They're not going away - and their voice isn't dependent on on positions of influence. Bu those that they do hold, they hold by virtue of grass-roots support. To remove them is another battle - that's not how things work in the tory party. You don't just get rid of grass-roots influence as the result of a vote.

 

[newbie]

But they'll always have the EU to campaign on. They're not going away - and their voice isn't dependent on on positions of influence. Bu those that they do hold, they hold by virtue of grass-roots support. To remove them is another battle - that's not how things work in the tory party. You don't just get rid of grass-roots influence as the result of a vote.

see I don't think you're right, but we won't really know for a year or so. Normal people have been ignoring the EU obsessives for decades, making them largely an irrelevance outside their own organisations. Now, with the first tory government for 20 years and the huge European immigration crisis, their time has come. If they win, they'll purge from the top down, if they lose they'll be so demoralised that many will withdraw, others will be isolated and they'll (gradually) go back to being ignored.

Is my guess- if it turns out I'm wrong I'll try to remember to come back and hold my hand up.

 

[butchersapron]

see I don't think you're right, but we won't really know for a year or so. Normal people have been ignoring the EU obsessives for decades, making them largely an irrelevance outside their own organisations. Now, with the first tory government for 20 years and the huge European immigration crisis, their time has come. If they win, they'll purge from the top down, if they lose they'll be so demoralised that many will withdraw, others will be isolated and they'll (gradually) go back to being ignored.

Is my guess- if it turns out I'm wrong I'll try to remember to come back and hold my hand up.

But, you're wrong already - who was major calling bastards in the early 90s? It ain't going away. Each time people say but UKIP mean nothing, it's only euros - that's a significant amount of time it's gone on for and played a key role in tory politics ever since. Tying tory leaders to very narrow channels of action.

You cannot purge an idea - it doesn't inhere in positions. If it did they wouldn't be here.

 

[gosub]

I was just about to post that
UK would lose £36bn in tax receipts if it left EU, Treasury report says

For once, a below the line guardianista has it right:

200 pages, and for me only a third is relevant, will persevere, but Mr Osbourne's actual contribution (the intro) :...I promised to set out a serious and sober assessment of the economic facts, to inform this vital decision for our country. That is what this analysis provides.

No George, its a set of forecasts and modelling. And if the Met office had got every previous forecast they issued wrong, Michael Fish coming on and saying it will rain tomorrow, FACT!Don't make it so.

 

[Wilf]

But, you're wrong already - who was major calling bastards in the early 90s? It ain't going away. Each time people say but UKIP mean nothing, it's only euros - that's a significant amount of time it's gone on for and played a key role in tory politics ever since. Tying tory leaders to very narrow channels of action.

You cannot purge an idea - it doesn't inhere in positions. If it did they wouldn't be here.

You are right historically and the nature of the issue means that Cameron et al can't be too triumphalist about this (and certainly can't mount a purge of the grass roots). It's also going to carry on within debates on EU immigration, or whatever the next issue is. Yes, it's an unlanceable boil. At the same time a remain victory which gets 55-45 or better is bound to have an effect, for the rest of this parliament and in to the next. 'The people have decided, let's move on' will work for a while.

Perhaps the more interesting issue is what shape (and with what targets and alliances) does right wing populism take after this defeat.

 

[butchersapron]

You are right historically and the nature of the issue means that Cameron et al can't be too triumphalist about this (and certainly can't mount a purge of the grass roots). It's also going to carry on within debates on EU immigration, or whatever the next issue is. Yes, it's an unlanceable boil. At the same time a remain victory which gets 55-45 or better is bound to have an effect, for the rest of this parliament and in to the next. 'The people have decided, let's move on' will work for a while.

Perhaps the more interesting issue is what shape (and with what targets and alliances) does right wing populism take after this defeat.

Effect on who though? It'll bounce off anti-eu types.

 

[Wilf]

Effect on who though? It'll bounce off anti-eu types.

They won't change but, after the usual round of post mortems, their access to editors and tv studios drops off. It becomes a bit less easy to do politics. Bigger issue will be whether they manage to keep their hobby horse linked to anything substantial in terms of real world dissatisfaction and alienation. They might do, but they'll have to come up with something new. It won't be a good time to simply say come and join our anti-EU party/grouplet.

 

[butchersapron]

They won't change but, after the usual round of post mortems, their access to editors and tv studios drops off. It becomes a bit less easy to do politics. Bigger issue will be whether they manage to keep their hobby horse linked to anything substantial in terms of real world dissatisfaction and alienation. They might do, but they'll have to come up with something new. It won't be a good time to simply say come and join our anti-EU party/grouplet.

Their access at this point is to pro-eu editors and tv studios. This is the high point of access. These people strangled the anti-eu voice for 20 years - didn't go away. It's not a hobby horse.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I'd say the likely outcomes are between a comfortable win for remain (57 - 65%) to a narrow win for leave. The latter would be an interesting outcome - as it questionable that such a potentially drastic step is really justified on anything other than a big majority - and I can see the pro-EU sections of the establishment using exactly that argument - their will be more wrangles and probably another "Are you sure about this?" referendum - against a backdrop of the leave camp having hysterics.
Of course anything other than a thumping win for remain will have the brexiters cying foul from here till the next election.

 

[butchersapron]

Even a thumping win will not matter. And quite right.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'd say the likely outcomes are between a comfortable win for remain (57 - 65%) to a narrow win for leave. The latter would be an interesting outcome - as it questionable that such a potentially drastic step is really justified on anything other than a big majority - and I can see the pro-EU sections of the establishment using exactly that argument - their will be more wrangles and probably another "Are you sure about this?" referendum - against a backdrop of the leave camp having hysterics.
Of course anything other than a thumping win for remain will have the brexiters cying foul from here till the next election.

I would see no case for a second referendum however narrow the vote/low the turnout. It's not quite the same as getting a new treaty through - if a treaty is rejected it can be tweaked and presented again.

 

[gosub]

I'd say the likely outcomes are between a comfortable win for remain (57 - 65%) to a narrow win for leave. The latter would be an interesting outcome - as it questionable that such a potentially drastic step is really justified on anything other than a big majority - and I can see the pro-EU sections of the establishment using exactly that argument - their will be more wrangles and probably another "Are you sure about this?" referendum - against a backdrop of the leave camp having hysterics.
Of course anything other than a thumping win for remain will have the brexiters cying foul from here till the next election.

Sort of similar view, Leave win, and government gear up to EEA (4th largest trading bloc in the world) the immigration lead contigent cry foul and we have another referendum over that and the anti single market lot get stuffed. Leave win, and we have another referendum without change would not go down well.
Remain win, we have another referendum over the next treaty which wouldn't be that long away.

 

[butchersapron]

I would see no case for a second referendum however narrow the vote/low the turnout. It's not quite the same as getting a new treaty through - if a treaty is rejected it can be tweaked and presented again.

It's irrelevant - who cares what the formal case for another one is?

And is that defence of what happened in ireland and other places?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's irrelevant - who cares what the formal case for another one is?

And is that defence of what happened in ireland and other places?

Not a defence no. A statement of practicality.

 

[butchersapron]

Not a defence no. A statement of practicality.

I don't know what that means in relation to my post and the forced re-votes.

 

[brogdale]

Phones still saying remainarians have it...

 

[Kaka Tim]

I would see no case for a second referendum however narrow the vote/low the turnout. It's not quite the same as getting a new treaty through - if a treaty is rejected it can be tweaked and presented again.

Leaving the EU would be a fundamental change to the UK's whole trade, economic and diplomatic set-up which creates big issues on things like scottish independence and the northern ireland assembly. I really cant see the powerful interests throughout the establishment meekly accepting a vote for leave unless its with an overwhelming popular mandate - and there may well be a lot of popular resistance to the idea as well. They're would very likely be another referendum offering various options from stay in after all, accept EU rules but dont take part (like norway) to fuck off out of it entirely. It will be very very messy.

 

[teqniq]

 

[Sprocket.]

I work with a team of forty engineers over four shifts and there are only two at the moment saying they will remain, six not sure and the rest want to leave. Of the remainder thirty want to leave because of migrants, no matter where they come from because that is the only cause of all our problems according to them!

 

[Coolfonz]

....for example France's social model is under sustained attack from the EU...sorry I mean they are "...encouraging reform..."

EU Commission vice-president encourages France to reform labour market

...the EU has long been asking for a substantial labour market reform in France of the same calibre as Hartz IV....

...that'd be The much-hated Hartz IV that "....ultimately split Germany's center-left, led to the creation of the more radical and populist Left party, and permanently weakened the SPD in subsequent elections...."

You are quite right the EU is largely neo-liberal. Lots of problems, economic policy sucks. The Euro is a fuck up. But it is largely the same everywhere around the world. The 28 member states have voted in governments for decades (maybe Greece Portugal aside at the moment) which follow these politics, leaving the EU won't change that, neo-liberalism is a much bigger issue. In the immediate future though, after a `leave` vote...are there significant economic risks or not? I think there are. It is however, a shit choice.

As for the French state and its much vaunted safety network, fuck that bullshit (not yours, the French state), France has some incredible poverty, mass alienation and utter bollocks politics. It could start by giving its people work.

 

[butchersapron]

You are quite right the EU is largely neo-liberal. Lots of problems, economic policy sucks. The Euro is a fuck up. But it is largely the same everywhere around the world. The 28 member states have voted in governments for decades (maybe Greece Portugal aside at the moment) which follow these politics, leaving the EU won't change that, neo-liberalism is a much bigger issue. In the immediate future though, after a `leave` vote...are there significant economic risks or not? I think there are. It is however, a shit choice.

As for the French state and its much vaunted safety network, fuck that bullshit (not yours, the French state), France has some incredible poverty, mass alienation and utter bollocks politics. It could start by giving its people work.

What do you mean by economic risks?

And do you have any independent politics you may wish to forward? Beyond this market following I mean.

 

[butchersapron]

You are quite right the EU is largely neo-liberal. Lots of problems, economic policy sucks. The Euro is a fuck up. But it is largely the same everywhere around the world. The 28 member states have voted in governments for decades (maybe Greece Portugal aside at the moment) which follow these politics, leaving the EU won't change that, neo-liberalism is a much bigger issue. In the immediate future though, after a `leave` vote...are there significant economic risks or not? I think there are. It is however, a shit choice.

As for the French state and its much vaunted safety network, fuck that bullshit (not yours, the French state), France has some incredible poverty, mass alienation and utter bollocks politics. It could start by giving its people work.

This stuff, it's the classic nothing post.

 

[Coolfonz]

What do you mean by economic risks?
And do you have any independent politics you may wish to forward? Beyond this market following I mean.

It isn't `market following` imo. But one needs to understand ones enemy. You or I might not like the economic system which dominates the world, but it does exist. By risks I mean increased unemployment, rising costs, rising asset prices and so on...pretty standard stuff. It's how markets take revenge on folks who piss them off. Bilateral trade agreements? Subsidies for domestic industries? Increased employees rights? I don't see it. Happy to be wrong though.
35 years of neo-liberalism - and more - have brought about all these crises...people movements, Scotland, Catalunya, the rise of the FN and their friends. The financial crisis is central to this. And like you say correctly this vote isn't going to stop these questions about the EU being asked. It is - imo - a much wider and far bigger problem, so possibly fucking up the UK economy a bit more than it already is, won't bring about much positive change, I think.

I think you get my point.

 

[butchersapron]

It isn't `market following` imo. But one needs to understand ones enemy. You or I might not like the economic system which dominates the world, but it does exist. By risks I mean increased unemployment, rising costs, rising asset prices and so on...pretty standard stuff. It's how markets take revenge on folks who piss them off. Bilateral trade agreements? Subsidies for domestic industries? Increased employees rights? I don't see it. Happy to be wrong though.
35 years of neo-liberalism - and more - have brought about all these crises...people movements, Scotland, Catalunya, the rise of the FN and their friends. The financial crisis is central to this. And like you say correctly this vote isn't going to stop these questions about the EU being asked. It is - imo - a much wider and far bigger problem, so possibly fucking up the UK economy a bit more than it already is, won't bring about much positive change, I think.

I think you get my point.

I don't think that you have an enemy.

 

[DrRingDing]

Beefy backs Brexit: Cricket hero Sir Ian Botham URGES Britons to quit 'corrupt' EU