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The Trump presidency

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On Losing Struggle Military Power in an Age of Raiding
Any sensible threat assessment starts from capability of adversaries and then looks to intent. Russian capability always loomed large. There was just an assumption Russia was a permanently beaten down power that could be arrogantly shoved about like Iran. Russia was "a 3rd world country with oil and ICBMs" was a common opinion in 2012. The worst thing we had to worry about was puny but scary Salafi-Jihadis staging the odd murder raid.

Trump even tries to ignore a very dangerous to its neighbours, deranged, North Korea with its nukes because it spoils this clash of civilisations fairytale world. He pushes against China on trade confident they'll back down. The Chinese are the only power with much influence over NorK.

Trump clearly does not share Romney's 2012 position on Russia. What's amusing here is the smugly self blinkered British government fixated on terrorism didn't agree with Romney either a few years ago. That didn't survive a naive Obama being very publicly confronted by Russia that really wasn't afraid to push its luck and close down US options in Syria. An ice bucket challenge for the British security establishment.

This sort of delusional wishful thinking is very common. In a quarter century from the triumphalist Unipolar Moment in 91, via great disappointment in Baghdad to Trump's whiny American Carnage that just assumes Russia will makes nice and China will bend over for him.

Excellent article, but no links to who wrote it?
 
Aye, let's look at the razor wire walls built by the EU, then we can start ridiculing the Buffons efforts.

Or the barriers around the roads in Calais .

Or Hillary Clintons Mexican barriers for that matter.

No, they aren't racist . They're on the side of the angels . There's some pretty rank hypocrisy in this stuff .
 
Trumps just winding everyone up playing to the base.Sad for those caught up in it tho.

But his tax and trade policies are the real agenda.

Wagons are circled ,like Brexit what goes around comes around-its karma man.
 
You're talking utter nonsense . Half a million children alone...perhaps many more..we're estimated to have died from the Iraq sanctions . The anti govt SOHR estimates 15,000 or so children have been killed in Syria by all sides combined . That includes indiscriminate rebel shelling of cities and no warning car bombs, IS rampages, Turkish shelling, western air strikes .

Utter nonsense .
Nul points for seamless hasbara there. Mounting a stout defence of recent atrocities in Syria while wringing hands over 90s Iraq to me seems more than a little hypocritical.

Though I would not disagree in Syria most of the dead by NGO accounts are military aged males 60%+ of whom most were probably combatants or potential combatants. That toll is very large on both sides. Not that mainly killing young men who probably wanted no part of combat makes it palatable. Ignoring those dying in starvation sieges or just poisoned by crappy Baathist water provision it's in the R+6 air war mainly that kids are killed. The ground war that tends to spare them. But I'd allow that's mostly what we'd callously call "collateral damage" rather than deliberate targeting. There are too few murdered kids reported by NGOs to support that being R+6 policy.

Will Trump bend the 21st century Pentagon to a Putin style "bomb the shit out of IS" approach? Sec Def Mattis favours escalation to finish IS off. We'll see how similar the Russian and American approaches to COIN look. At the moment doctrinally they are worlds apart.
 
So Bannon believes there is a convergence between capitalism and Christian values, the US benefits from having a common enemy in the east and he wants a showdown with Islam. Great. So far they're playing the right game, sow divisions, act provocatively and wait for a response. All the while I bet these guys are biding their time hoping for another terrorist attack on US soil. It will then allow them to roll out the full war mode.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/29/...nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=1

The rush of Democratic governors and senators, both moderates and progressives, to airports this weekend also showed that they recognized that the outpouring of protesters for the women’s marches on inauguration weekend was only the start of a new movement.

“I think the key for the Democratic Party is to show to a very powerful and dynamic coalition that we are hearing them and connecting to their issues,” said former Representative Tom Perriello, who made a surprise entry into the Virginia governor’s race after Mr. Trump’s election and drove to Dulles International Airport from Richmond, Va., on Saturday to join the protests.

The demands for purity from Democratic leaders are likely to grow only more unequivocal, and standing in solidarity with sign-waving protesters may prove insufficient. A rising chorus of liberals is pressuring senators to filibuster Mr. Trump’s selection for the Supreme Court, which he has said he will announce this week.

“When it comes to the Supreme Court, eight is enough,” said Representative Keith Ellison, a Minnesota Democrat who is one of the top contenders to be the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. “They literally stole a Supreme Court justice from President Obama, so I see no reason why we should facilitate them putting in some right-wing extremist.”
 
Is there any justification or logic to Iran being on the list with the other states? Any recent terror attacks or even rhetoric directed at the USA? Given they're taking the fight to ISIS at the moment it seems odd they're included on the list.

(Unless of course this is absolutely nothing to do with 'terrorism' in the first place)
 
Is there any justification or logic to Iran being on the list with the other states? Any recent terror attacks or even rhetoric directed at the USA? Given they're taking the fight to ISIS at the moment it seems odd they're included on the list.

(Unless of course this is absolutely nothing to do with 'terrorism' in the first place)
You didn't expect a reasoned/rational agenda, did you?
 
Is there any justification or logic to Iran being on the list with the other states? Any recent terror attacks or even rhetoric directed at the USA? Given they're taking the fight to ISIS at the moment it seems odd they're included on the list.

(Unless of course this is absolutely nothing to do with 'terrorism' in the first place)

It's a populist move designed to appease those with no more detailed analysis than Iran = bad. Strategically it does seem like a stupid time to be trolling the Iranians but it's not as if there's a sensible time to pull this kind of bullshit or a sensible list of nationalities to ban from your shores.

These are not big-picture thinkers we're dealing with here. More like a group of children given sledgehammers and left alone in the school with zero adult supervision.
 
Trial Balloon for a Coup?
Analyzing the news of the past 24 hours

Definitely worth reading all of this piece, but if tldr, here's the summary at the end.

  1. Trump was, indeed, perfectly honest during the campaign; he intends to do everything he said, and more. This should not be reassuring to you.
  2. The regime’s main organizational goal right now is to transfer all effective power to a tight inner circle, eliminating any possible checks from either the Federal bureaucracy, Congress, or the Courts. Departments are being reorganized or purged to effect this.
  3. The inner circle is actively probing the means by which they can seize unchallenged power; yesterday’s moves should be read as the first part of that.
  4. The aims of crushing various groups — Muslims, Latinos, the black and trans communities, academics, the press — are very much primary aims of the regime, and are likely to be acted on with much greater speed than was earlier suspected. The secondary aim of personal enrichment is also very much in play, and clever people will find ways to play these two goals off each other.
 
Is there any justification or logic to Iran being on the list with the other states? Any recent terror attacks or even rhetoric directed at the USA? Given they're taking the fight to ISIS at the moment it seems odd they're included on the list.

(Unless of course this is absolutely nothing to do with 'terrorism' in the first place)

Iran is a Muslim-majority country that is not is much of a position to retaliate in any meaningful way. Those are the two criteria.
 
Quite a bit of alarm about the edit to the White House website section "Our Government," to exclude the Judicial branch. Scroll to the bottom and look at the right corner.

In 8th Grade (age 12 or 13) I had to take a test on the constitution to graduate and go to high school. In my senior year (age 17 or 18) we had to complete a year long class on US Government, including another test on the constitution. The idea that the THREE branches of government are the foundation of the US constitution gets burned into our brain. It's absolutely impossible that this would have been an oversight, and even if it were a case of extremely sloppy web editing, why hasn't it been corrected?

No Judicial.png
 
Hell, they even did a cartoon explaining this for younger children that ran on Saturday mornings.

Defying the courts over the hasty ban on people from the 7 listed countries and approved refugees smells distinctly of "if we can get away with this . . . "

 
one million people who don't want embarrassment caused to her majesty the queen, god bless her.
I like it actually, very British.

Apart from the typical self-congratulatory distraction element of it, the petition seems to be an unusually neat device. Either it does what it says on the tin (unlikely) and it makes Trump look bad internationally, whilst simultaneously trashing the UK's chances of a desperately sought trade deal rogering, or May has to brush it aside a very popular sentiment which won't do her the slightest bit of good. The will of the people must be respected, anyone? Oh ho ho. The least damaging way out is probably to dither and obfuscate until the ban is rescinded, but it's unlikely that the propellant is going to run out any time soon. Like someone said, she's tied her colours to a shitty, sinking mast.

I'd go to the Manc protest for what little it's worth, but I'm away on business tonight.
 
I'm sticking to my view that the content, speed, lack of legal review and failure to consult with crucial government departments before enacting the Executive Order were absolutely intended to cause confusion.

How Trump’s Rush to Enact an Immigration Ban Unleashed Global Chaos

WASHINGTON — As President Trump signed a sweeping executive order on Friday, shutting the borders to refugees and others from seven largely Muslim countries, the secretary of homeland security was on a White House conference call getting his first full briefing on the global shift in policy.

Gen. John F. Kelly, the secretary of homeland security, had dialed in from a Coast Guard plane as he headed back to Washington from Miami. Along with other top officials, he needed guidance from the White House, which had not asked his department for a legal review of the order.

Halfway into the briefing, someone on the call looked up at a television in his office. “The president is signing the executive order that we’re discussing,” the official said, stunned.

The global confusion that has since erupted is the story of a White House that rushed to enact, with little regard for basic governing, a core campaign promise that Mr. Trump made to his most fervent supporters. In his first week in office, Mr. Trump signed other executive actions with little or no legal review, but his order barring refugees has had the most explosive implications.


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Is the Trump Admin trying to create an excuse for violent suppression?

I cut & pasted the above Twitter thread below - deffo reflects my thinking on this.


The Trump Admin rushed through the #MuslimBan for a purpose other than national security. The question is what is that purpose?

I suspect it will not be long before members of our Natl Guard/military will be put in a position of deciding whether to fire upon citizens.

I pray I am wrong. But Bannon et al WANT to bring domestic division to a point of heightened conflict. It's a feature, not a bug.

With the #MuslimBan, Bannon et al chose to do something overtly unConstitutional that they knew would be a flash-point for the left.

They *rushed* this through on purpose, overriding objections and failing to coordinate with intelligence or immigration officials.

From their actions, we can infer the #MuslimBan has a purpose that suits their strategic goals and has nothing to do with national security.

A #MuslimBan is a perfect vehicle for them: it's a flashpoint for opposition from the left and a dog whistle for support from the right.

The #MuslimBan furthers domestic division: it makes many within the U.S. see protesters as aligned with who they perceive to be "the enemy."

The (good & righteous) response by the left to the #MuslimBan serves Bannon et al's goals. Protesters are unknowingly "othering" themselves.

Like other ascendant authoritarian regimes, the Trump Admin WANTS an excuse to put down dissent. And to do so violently.

Don't get me wrong: We of good conscience have no choice but to protest and dissent. Especially those of us with privilege to spend.

Dissent and protest are our duties and responsibilities as citizens.

Nonetheless, when I analyze the timing, content, and manner of this Exec Order, I cannot help but realize it has a purpose for the Admin.

The purpose has nothing to do with national security and everything to do w heightening domestic political division and increasing dissent.

Authoritarians cannot complete their ascendance until they have an opportunity to quash dissent with violence.

The violence used to quash dissent must be dramatic enough to serve as a deterrent for all meaningful future dissent.

Because the #MuslimBan is NOT the end game for this Administration. They literally want to dismantle our republic as we know it. All of it.

"Lenin wanted to destroy the state, & that’s my goal too. I want to bring everything crashing down, & destroy all of today’s establishment."

The previous tweet is a quote from Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor and former Campaign Manager.

As @sarahkendzior has documented, Trump himself has made statements eerily similar to Bannon's in the past.

Trump's chief propagandist Kellyanne Conway has very recently mirrored this "shock to the system" mentality:

Kellyanne Conway @KellyannePolls - Get used to it. @POTUS is a man of action and impact. Promises made, promises kept. Shock to the system. And he's just getting started


The SuperPAC "Committee to Defend the President" is airing ads basically inciting civil war to "defend" Trump: https://twitter.com/Jess4_RK/status/825358392575266816 …

In short, an excuse for a violent government response to domestic dissent is something Bannon et al WANT and are looking for.

If an opportunity doesn't arise organically (humans in large groups do stupid things sometimes), they will create one eventually. I'm sorry.


Kent_State_massacre.jpg
 
Is there any justification or logic to Iran being on the list with the other states? Any recent terror attacks or even rhetoric directed at the USA? Given they're taking the fight to ISIS at the moment it seems odd they're included on the list.

(Unless of course this is absolutely nothing to do with 'terrorism' in the first place)
Trump and his gang would love a confrontation with Iran. Great way to show he's tough on "the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism." And the mullahs love it.
"And, by the way, with Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats, and they make gestures at our people, that they shouldn't be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water," Trump said to thunderous applause. Soon the crowd began to chant: "USA! USA! USA!"

The Iranian government thrives on isolating its population and choking off criticism...By excluding all Iranians, Trump is only making it harder for the most promising elements of Iranian society to stand up to their repressive system and change their country for the better...This policy will extend the Islamic republic’s longevity, disrupt the lives of 1.5 million Iranian Americans and fan the flames of anti-Americanism in the region.
Opinion | Trump’s travel ban is a gift to Iran’s rulers
 
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For what it's worth, although I was only in kindergarten at the time, I remember my parents and older siblings discussing the Kent State shootings. One of my Ohio cousins worked at the university as a secretary. My brother in law was at Southern Illinois University and there had been protests there and attacks on the campus ROTC centre. Basically, most people in the "heartland" at the time thought the students that were killed had it coming to them.

I am quite confident that the children and grandchildren of those people still living there now would say the same about protesters today - with bells on. :(
 
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