The Trump presidency

[butchersapron]

Increasinglhy convinced the ban on refugees and people from the 7 states wasn't chaotic as the result of incompetence. It was meant to cause chaos. It managed to achieve the following:

- Causing distress and financial loss to people from the 7 countries and vetted refugees, sending a clear message of "you aren't wanted here, piss off."
- Some people with legal residency in the UK were pressured to sign forms renouncing that - a few more black and brown people ejected - yay!
- Protests at airports and good media coverage of this, ensuring it remained the focus for the day. (I think the Trump team was hoping there might be violence as an excuse to push back, so probably disappointed on that score.)
- Disruption to travel arrangements, which many will blame on the protesters, not the executive.
- Although they probably knew it wouldn't hold up, only a partial stay was granted, so at least partial win.
- Gain more brownie poimts with supporters in the "heartland," who are already expressing their delight on social media that Trump is acting fast to protect Americans from terrorists.
- Divert everyone's attention to the BIG action of the day - the executive order re-configuring the National Security Council to members least likely to be politically motivated and making a new seat for the power behind the throne, Steve Bannon.

I'm still not seeing much talk about that last achievement. The president consolidating his personal power over the body that decides on everything from armed conflict abroad to martial law at home is being buried under the avalanche of outrage about the "Muslim Ban." It is outrageous, but it's also a diversion from something very sinister indeed.

What is that 'something very sinister indeed'?

 

[Lord Camomile]

- Divert everyone's attention to the BIG action of the day - the executive order re-configuring the National Security Council to members least likely to be politically motivated and making a new seat for the power behind the throne, Steve Bannon.

I really need to read up on how all this works and what it means, but general consensus is that it's certainly a BAD THING.

And agree, gotta keep our eyes on all fronts.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Interesting podcast.

Has Russia seeking something like the restoration of the Westphalian order: no R2P, humanitarian interventions etc. Their's is a zero sum game but they don't want complete chaos. They don't really have much to offer the very transactional Trump. The Russians just see this as the US naturally coming to its senses and see no need to horse trade. They're baffled by Trump floating Ukrainian sanction relief for unrelated nuke deals; does not compute. I don't think Trump is interested in a world with rules or institutions that constrain US power. That's the problem with the current set up for him. This is a fundamental mismatch: Trump's new global order looks more and more is one in which an unpredictable US is the biggest rogue state.

Germans may be contemplating a Plan B: a Trump like tilt towards Russia. I'd say that used to be the big US/British problem with the Krauts as a NATO member. Energy dependence on Russia, lingering PTSD from WWII, not wanting a war in the Fulda Gap. I think that would set alarm bells ringing in May's cabinet. Even those happy to see the EU messily collapse won't be so happy if the Germans and Russian start to create a new architecture together.

For Turks drifting away from NATO, Obama hated. However they think Trump=Erdogan, he'll stop US Syrian PKK support (I'm predicting tears at bedtime over that one), forget Human Rights and deliver Gulen's head. But Turkish military establishment really doesn't trust Russia and wants to maintain US security relationship.

Predicts biggest problems for Europe in 70 years. Current internal problems may be swamped by coping with new external threats. Which is a happy thought to end on.

 

[Dogsauce]

This is doing the rounds on Facebook, the experience of someone with a life in the US who returned to Iran to visit family and isn't being let back in. Shitty, although I realise some of these tales are only resonating with people I know on Facebook in a 'won't somebody think of the middle classes' kind of way. I imagine there are refugees who had a path of hope in front of them who are now in a far shittier position.

Nazanin Zinouri
feeling fed up at DXB - Dubai International Airport.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates ·

I normally don't write long posts or any kind of political or religious comments.
I apologize in advance and I don't expect my friends to read this long long past!!
But today I just couldn't hold it any longer. Friday 1/20/17 started like any other normal day. I was excited about my trip to Tehran. After all I only get to visit them once a year. I was excited and anxious at the same time. I was worried about my little puppy but I couldn't wait to see my mom...
It was an uneventful trip. I made him home on Monday 1/22/17, after around 28 hours, exhausted but so so happy. We were all happy. I was going to eat lots of delicious Persian food and make tons of great memories and go back to my life in the US. But the happiness didn't last that long. On Wednesday, we started hearing rumors about new executive orders that will change immigration rules for some countries including Iran. Soon we started reading drafts like everyone else. I might be banned from going back?!?! No that can't be true. I'm not gonna let that ruin my trip. But then it got serious so fast. Before I knew it, it was actually happening. Even though I didn't want to leave my family, I quickly booked a ticket to get on the next flight back. Only a few hours after the order was signed, I got to the airport, got on a plane and made it to Dubai. After waiting in the line to get my documents checked and after 40 minutes of questions and answers, I boarded the plane to Washington, only to have two TSA officers getting in and ask me to disembark the plane!!! Yes after almost 7 years of living the the United States, I got deported!!!
No one warned me when I was leaving, no one cared what will happen to my dog or my job or my life there. No one told me what I should do with my car that is still parked at the airport parking. Or what to do with my house and all my belongings.
They didn't say it with words but with their actions, that my life doesn't matter. Everything I worked for all these years doesn't matter.
I just had to say it...

 

[CrabbedOne]

Trump's chosen to ignore the most likely sources of foreign terrorists in his ban and notably not included countries that have a lot of previous with such things. This does make a nonsense of it as an anti-terror measure of course but you have to anticipate the list might expand.

If I was Abu Bakr Baghdadi I'd be thinking this "Muslim ban" actually offers some incentives for a US attack by nationals of countries not yet listed. Think of the economic damage you can do by getting a country added to the list.

What does Trump do now if say a bunch of Irish IS guys (yes there are Irish born IS guys) with their big pasty potato heads stroll into the US and stage a "Mumbai Style Attack"? This isn't that hard to imagine. Well I'm a circumcised, fellow Bog Trotter who often works in California so that's probably me fucked.

 

[J Ed]

Well, Trump has perhaps already managed to equal one of the more vindictive Obama drone strikes.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Increasinglhy convinced the ban on refugees and people from the 7 states wasn't chaotic as the result of incompetence. It was meant to cause chaos. It managed to achieve the following:

- Causing distress and financial loss to people from the 7 countries and vetted refugees, sending a clear message of "you aren't wanted here, piss off."
- Some people with legal residency in the UK were pressured to sign forms renouncing that - a few more black and brown people ejected - yay!
- Protests at airports and good media coverage of this, ensuring it remained the focus for the day. (I think the Trump team was hoping there might be violence as an excuse to push back, so probably disappointed on that score.)
- Disruption to travel arrangements, which many will blame on the protesters, not the executive.
- Although they probably knew it wouldn't hold up, only a partial stay was granted, so at least partial win.
- Gain more brownie poimts with supporters in the "heartland," who are already expressing their delight on social media that Trump is acting fast to protect Americans from terrorists.
- Divert everyone's attention to the BIG action of the day - the executive order re-configuring the National Security Council to members least likely to be politically motivated and making a new seat for the power behind the throne, Steve Bannon.

I'm still not seeing much talk about that last achievement. The president consolidating his personal power over the body that decides on everything from armed conflict abroad to martial law at home is being buried under the avalanche of outrage about the "Muslim Ban." It is outrageous, but it's also a diversion from something very sinister indeed.

Nah, it's incompetence, read the Lawfare post above. The legal work is just appalling shoddy. A competent drafter could have made it pretty airtight. It probably was intended as an incendiary but it's a rather faulty one.

No doubt Bannon will be selling it all as a cunning plan. It's what opportunists often do.

 

[mauvais]

Well, Trump has perhaps already managed to equal one of the more vindictive Obama drone strikes.

They lost a soldier (and a helicopter) in this operation too, the first in this presidency I think.

 

[Dogsauce]

He did say he'd go after their families, this is consistent with him doing everything else he said he was going to do.

 

[Kaka Tim]

From what people are posting on here it looks like bannon is providing brains and ideological vision behind the administration. Which is extremely disturbing. Trump doesn't have a clear ideology or coherent poltical position - its all about him and his prejudices - so its contradictory, capricious and inconsistent.
Bannon very much does - racist ultra nationalism. So i go back to an extent on what i said earlier - The fact that he specifically intervened to include green card holders in the ban points less towards incompetence and more towards malicious intent with total disregard for the consequences.
Deeply depressing and worrying.

 

[1%er]

Is the outcry as regards American policy justified in this case?

That's subjective surely? If you support the Executive Order I'm sure you would think the outcry is not justified, if you oppose it, I'm sure you'd think the outcry is justified.

Having read the Order it seems to me Trump has gone further than his stated view/policy during the election. During the election he said he wanted "a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the USA", this Order goes much further than that for the citizens of the countries involved, it effects people of all religions to a greater or lesser extent, but doesn't in fact do what he said, "place a Temporary ban on all Muslims" as many countries are not subject to the Order and therefore Muslims and others from non-effect countries should still be able to travel to the USA unmolested.

Interestingly, I see that many news outlets are say it is a "ban on Muslims", but I can't find the word Muslim anywhere in the Order, but that doesn't surprise me at all, for obvious reasons, from my reading of the Order it appears to ban all citizens from the countries it is applied to (guilty until proven innocent, then you can come). It will be interesting to see if the effected countries use the "policy of reciprocity" and ban all US citizens from traveling to their countries.

If your question is directed at me for a personal view rather than a general view, I'd say that no country should exclude every citizen from another country without looking at each individual case, a blanket ban seems counter productive to me.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Well, Trump has perhaps already managed to equal one of the more vindictive Obama drone strikes.

Well he favours "sneak attacks".

 

[mauvais]

The fact that he specifically intervened to include green card holders in the ban points less towards incompetence and more towards malicious intent with total disregard for the consequences.

They're not mutually exclusive, are they?

 

[gosub]

Well, Trump has perhaps already managed to equal one of the more vindictive Obama drone strikes.

Had a bloke of FB defending Trump this very afternoon, saying at least he didn't bomb children. Originally replied "..yet!"

 

[J Ed]

Had a bloke of FB defending Trump this very afternoon, saying at least he did bomb children. Originally replied "..yet!"

Actually from based on AP reports it sounds like the 8 year old wasn't bombed, she was shot in the neck.

 

[gosub]

Actually from based on AP reports it sounds like the 8 year old wasn't bombed, she was shot in the neck.

 

[hot air baboon]

Its interesting to listen to the outcry, but I don't recall such an outcry when Christians, Muslims, Jews and others religious groups were banned from entering these countries just because they happen to be traveling on an Israeli passport......

...not really the what-aboutery that occurred to me ...I was more put in mind of Frau Merkel rushing off to - ahem - "do a deal" with Erdogan bearing gifts of various bribes and concessions in return for them turning back refugees at gun point on the Turkish border....much more hygienic than having to get your hands dirty putting the lid back on yourself

 

[DotCommunist]

Actually from based on AP reports it sounds like the 8 year old wasn't bombed, she was shot in the neck.

I'm so fucking sick of this decade

 

[CRI]

This comes from a 2014 Christian conference presentation, towards the end. He witters on about Judeo-Christian capitalism and the impending war against Islam.

Bear in mind, he's probably the closest advisor to President Trump (and some suggest the real power behind the throne,) he was editor of a far right news site which continues to circulate "alternative fact" (as is now the fashionable term for "false") stories, a seat was created for him on the National Security Council, he has not gone through any vetting processes, let alone senate approval hearings, and he seems mighty keen on re-enacting the Crusades in a 21st century context.

I'm sure everything will be just fine.



Full video here.

 

[treelover]

Odd not to hear that on this thread.

I see this is doing the rounds, from the right, doesn't make it less valid, its all Israeli's not just the bad ones.

 

[CRI]

This is doing the rounds on Facebook, the experience of someone with a life in the US who returned to Iran to visit family and isn't being let back in. Shitty, although I realise some of these tales are only resonating with people I know on Facebook in a 'won't somebody think of the middle classes' kind of way. I imagine there are refugees who had a path of hope in front of them who are now in a far shittier position.

To be fair, I'm not reading this story, or the one about the Glasgow vet trapped in Costa Rica as people aghast that their privileged status hasn't warranted better treatment. It's more, that if something like this can happen to a person with the characteristics of a "good foreigner" (e.g. educated, good career, westernised, fluent in English, etc.) it must be even more horrid for someone who doesn't fit the criteria.

 

[butchersapron]

I see this is doingt he rounds, from the right, doesn't make it less valid, its all Israeli's not just the bad ones.

What?

 

[treelover]

The democratically elected president of the USA is implementing a policy he was very clear about during his campaign (a temporary ban), the people who voted for him may not all have agreed with this policy, but they still voted for him.

Its interesting to listen to the outcry, but I don't recall such an outcry when Christians, Muslims, Jews and others religious groups were banned from entering these countries just because they happen to be traveling on an Israeli passport, Algeria, Bangladesh, Brunei, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. In addition, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen haven't just banned people with Israeli passports but also people who have a used or unused visa for Israeli.

You couldn't visit the old DDR if you had an Israeli stamp on your passport then.

 

[hot air baboon]

....very good edition of Dateline London today - particularly at the 16 min mark where Gavin Esler & a Syrian commentator Mustapha Karkouti allude to the fact the Gulf states are very positive about the Trump regime's switch away from the rapprochement towards Iran ( and also if I followed his point correctly towards some sort of draconian crackdown on "islamic extremism" - giving cover to them pursuing internal repression presumably ) - we also know from their record hitherto that they couldn't give much of a flying proverbial about the fate of refugees...


Dateline London, 28/01/2017

 

[CrabbedOne]

That's subjective surely? If you support the Executive Order I'm sure you would think the outcry is not justified, if you oppose it, I'm sure you'd think the outcry is justified.

Having read the Order it seems to me Trump has gone further than his stated view/policy during the election. During the election he said he wanted "a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the USA", this Order goes much further than that for the citizens of the countries involved, it effects people of all religions to a greater or lesser extent, but doesn't in fact do what he said, "place a Temporary ban on all Muslims" as many countries are not subject to the Order and therefore Muslims and others from non-effect countries should still be able to travel to the USA unmolested.

Interestingly, I see that many news outlets are say it is a "ban on Muslims", but I can't find the word Muslim anywhere in the Order, but that doesn't surprise me at all, for obvious reasons, from my reading of the Order it appears to ban all citizens from the countries it is applied to (guilty until proven innocent, then you can come). It will be interesting to see if the effected countries use the "policy of reciprocity" and ban all US citizens from traveling to their countries.

If your question is directed at me for a personal view rather than a general view, I'd say that no country should exclude every citizen from another country without looking at each individual case, a blanket ban seems counter productive to me.

Yes he basically had to fudge it as the "Muslim Ban" he talked about on the campaign trail was undeliverable BS.

It would have been very tricky constitutionally to discriminate by sect.

Basically the countries listed are folk the US has bombed or will bomb. The list is hastily constructed and in fact a legacy from Obama. A blanket ban on Iraqis is a bit odd from an anti-terrorism point of view as while Iraqis might have good cause to want to blow up Americans there's quite a close security relationship with the ISF not unlike that with Egypt.

It doesn't actually address the known perps of previous attacks on US soil in anyway but never mind. Most US security folk think this whole thing is bullet to the foot that'll enable terrorists but The Donald will run his mouth to please the crowd and that's what came out. Trump is a man who obviously really worries about his ratings and it has pleased his base.

I give him some credit. It was the best Trump could do to please his voters given real world constraints. He didn't actually go the full retard and try to ban wealthy GCC folk who may really hate America but are very good for American business. The arms deals with GCC countries alone are massive earners.

It was rushed out without the usually professional government agency scrutiny to be seen to have done something promised. The Trump Team probably realise to some extent that it's really stupid and it'd get shot down in flames if they followed due process. It's a very sloppy piece of work legally. A lot of these orders are either very badly flawed or utterly vacuous. It's exactly what you'd expect from a bunch of Hill greenhorns in alien territory. Now it's going to get gutted by legal challenges and they'll blame "the swamp" and the media for not being able to deliver.

I'm reminded of Paul Bremer winging it in Baghdad with the headless chicken CPA in 03. Wet behind the ears GOP Campaign staffers trying to build a new country according to free market party dogma and without a world of Arabic. Delusion everywhere and great slabs of tax dollars being pissed away. DC has become The Emerald City on the Tigris.

 

[gosub]

 

[bimble]

This comes from a 2014 Christian conference presentation, towards the end. He witters on about Judeo-Christian capitalism and the impending war against Islam.

Bear in mind, he's probably the closest advisor to President Trump (and some suggest the real power behind the throne,) he was editor of a far right news site which continues to circulate "alternative fact" (as is now the fashionable term for "false") stories, a seat was created for him on the National Security Council, he has not gone through any vetting processes, let alone senate approval hearings, and he seems mighty keen on re-enacting the Crusades in a 21st century context.

I'm sure everything will be just fine.



Full video here.

I was just reading that. Full transcript here.
It does help explain his particular worldview, how he sees himself at the vanguard boldly hastening on the inevitable clash of civilisations , so as to save the Christan West, the 'flower of humanity'.

"There is a major war brewing, a war that’s already global. It’s going global in scale, and today’s technology, today’s media, today’s access to weapons of mass destruction, it’s going to lead to a global conflict that I believe has to be confronted today. Every day that we refuse to look at this as what it is, and the scale of it, and really the viciousness of it, will be a day where you will rue that we didn’t act.."

 

[CRI]

I was just reading that. Full transcript here.
It does help explain his particular worldview, how he sees himself at the vanguard boldly hastening on the inevitable clash of civilisations , so as save the Christan West, the 'flower of humanity'.

"There is a major war brewing, a war that’s already global. It’s going global in scale, and today’s technology, today’s media, today’s access to weapons of mass destruction, it’s going to lead to a global conflict that I believe has to be confronted today. Every day that we refuse to look at this as what it is, and the scale of it, and really the viciousness of it, will be a day where you will rue that we didn’t act.."

Thanks for the transcript link.

This is exactly the sort of rhetoric that resonates with those white supremacist Christian Trump supporters in the "heartland." They won't be shocked by it. They'll be thrilled. They won't see the irony of "never Hillary" because she was going to start a war, but backing Trump who's administration is desperately spoiling for one.

And poor Donald - some of his supporters are so worried about criticism he's getting, they've put out adverts, encouraging people to donate to "Defend Trump." (sound quality poor - sorry)

 

[mauvais]

Have we discussed his registration as a candidate for 2020 yet? Supposedly this is unusually early and supposedly also makes it more difficult for NGOs etc to criticise him. I've no idea how true the latter is, sounds dubious.

 

[CRI]

Found the video above in this tweet thread, which in itself is worrying. By declaring he's standing for re-election in 2020, within a few hours of being sworn in (instead of maybe 18 months before the end of his term), it makes lobbying and campaigning against his policies much harder, particularly for non-profit organisations. This is actually quite a clever, devious move, so can't file that in the basket marked "incompetence."