The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[Bahnhof Strasse]

UK strikes agreement with Japan to secure first post-Brexit trade deal

Government analysis found that a deal with Japan would boost the UK's GDP by around 0.07% over 15 years.

news.sky.com

an "important step" towards the UK joining a wider 11-nation trade deal, known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

boost trade with Japan by £15.2bn over the next 15 years

boost the UK's GDP by around 0.07% over 15 years

It was reported that the UK had sought better terms for blue cheeses but Japan wanted to keep to existing EU tariffs.

Department for Trade figures reveal that in 2018 the UK's trade with the EU was worth £659.5bn - while trade with Japan was worth £29.1bn.

It's a bit, well, shit, innit.

 

[pseudonarcissus]

UK strikes agreement with Japan to secure first post-Brexit trade deal

Government analysis found that a deal with Japan would boost the UK's GDP by around 0.07% over 15 years.

news.sky.com

It's a bit, well, shit, innit.

from the FT:

One of the biggest sticking points was so-called tariff rate quotas in agriculture, which let European farmers export a limited amount of sensitive foodstuffs to Japan at a lower tariff. Tokyo argued that it was up to London to argue with Brussels for a share of the existing quota and it could not offer more.

That sounds like it's going to be an interesting negotiation.

What will a lactose intolerant nation DO with all that Stilton anyway?

 

[ska invita]

What will a lactose intolerant nation DO with all that Stilton anyway?

Iirc the US of A has strongarmed Japan in recent years to buy endless vats of their mega farm milk... East Asia starting to consume more milk products as a result.
Iirc

 

[Raheem]

Prediction time!

1) The Bill can't pass parliament. It might not even pass the HoC. Johnson's authority is so weak he is promising that no-one will lose the whip, so effectively a free vote. So I think the Bill will be pulled next week, and even if not, it is not getting through.

2) There's probably no way of watering down the Bill so that it does pass. This might be possible if the Tories were desperate to hang on to Johnson, but they are not.

3) Johnson then has three options.

A. Make the EU a serious offer.
B. Ask the EU for a further extension.
C. Resign so that someone else can do A or B.

Allowing a crash-out will not be an option because, the Bill not having passed, Johnson faces going down in history as not only having devastated the country's economic base, but also having given away NI for no real reward.

4) Johnson will chose B. But the EU will decline. They may or may not be explicit about it, but this will be done to force Johnson's resignation.

5) Johnson will try to go for option A, but will find that everyone around him prefers option C.

6) We'll get another year of Brexit and RS will be an incredibly popular PM until about August.

 

[teuchter]

What will a lactose intolerant nation DO with all that Stilton anyway?

They will eat and enjoy it, because the Japanese are not unable to eat dairy products in moderate quantities.

 

[Raheem]

We will fight them on the beaches. We will persuade them to accept our cheese in moderate quantities. We will never surrender.

 

[ska invita]

Prediction time!

1) The Bill can't pass parliament. It might not even pass the HoC. Johnson's authority is so weak he is promising that no-one will lose the whip, so effectively a free vote. So I think the Bill will be pulled next week, and even if not, it is not getting through.

2) There's probably no way of watering down the Bill so that it does pass. This might be possible if the Tories were desperate to hang on to Johnson, but they are not.

3) Johnson then has three options.

A. Make the EU a serious offer.
B. Ask the EU for a further extension.
C. Resign so that someone else can do A or B.

Allowing a crash-out will not be an option because, the Bill not having passed, Johnson faces going down in history as not only having devastated the country's economic base, but also having given away NI for no real reward.

4) Johnson will chose B. But the EU will decline. They may or may not be explicit about it, but this will be done to force Johnson's resignation.

5) Johnson will try to go for option A, but will find that everyone around him prefers option C.

6) We'll get another year of Brexit and RS will be an incredibly popular PM until about August.

That suggests this illegal bill is a fuck up that's back fired. My impression is it was planned from before the signing of the WA, as will be the next steps... To me that looks to be crashing out, but who knows

 

[philosophical]

Another option might be to turn the UK into some kind of glorified Cayman Isles for his mates to get rich whilst the general population eats rats and acorns.

 

[Raheem]

That suggests this illegal bill is a fuck up that's back fired. My impression is it was planned from before the signing of the WA, as will be the next steps... To me that looks to be crashing out, but who knows

Who's to say it's not both planned and a fuck-up?

Think they thought they could predict what the EU would do, but their prediction was coloured by Brexiteer folklore about last-minute crisis resolution.

 

[krtek a houby]

They will eat and enjoy it, because the Japanese are not unable to eat dairy products in moderate quantities.

Wasn't wishing to question the infinite wisdom of urban but did wonder about this. Not claiming any expertise myself, but have never heard this before during my time here. In fact, as someone who can't eat or drink from the cow, am constantly miffed to see so much dairy products (ice cream, yoghurt, milk, cheese) everywhere and not a great deal of alternatives. Soy milk and almond, yeah but that's it. Goat or sheep cheese, forget about it. Or be prepared to pay through the nose! Boo. Or, moo, even.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

from the FT:

One of the biggest sticking points was so-called tariff rate quotas in agriculture, which let European farmers export a limited amount of sensitive foodstuffs to Japan at a lower tariff. Tokyo argued that it was up to London to argue with Brussels for a share of the existing quota and it could not offer more.

That sounds like it's going to be an interesting negotiation.

What will a lactose intolerant nation DO with all that Stilton anyway?

Not much lactose in cheese. Virtually none in hard cheeses like cheddar. Safe for the vast majority of the lactose intolerant.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Wasn't wishing to question the infinite wisdom of urban but did wonder about this. Not claiming any expertise myself, but have never heard this before during my time here. In fact, as someone who can't eat or drink from the cow, am constantly miffed to see so much dairy products (ice cream, yoghurt, milk, cheese) everywhere and not a great deal of alternatives. Soy milk and almond, yeah but that's it. Goat or sheep cheese, forget about it. Or be prepared to pay through the nose! Boo. Or, moo, even.

Very few people are entirely unable to eat any lactose. Those lacking the enzyme lactase, which is what lactose-intolerant normally means, can still pass smaller quantities of it through their bodies. Larger amounts give them the shits. So drinking a glass of plain milk is a bad idea, but eating cheese or yogurt is probably ok. Cheese, yogurt and butter all have lower levels of lactose, in some cases far lower levels. The processing breaks down the lactose into simpler sugars, doing the job that lactase does, basically.

 

[not-bono-ever]

This has always been about disruption anyway. I don’t think there is some cunning sub plot that will amaze and astound lurking around the corner. This has been a buzz theme in pig dog capital for a while now.

 

[pseudonarcissus]

Not much lactose in cheese. Virtually none in hard cheeses like cheddar. Safe for the vast majority of the lactose intolerant.

thank you

 

[existentialist]

UK strikes agreement with Japan to secure first post-Brexit trade deal

Government analysis found that a deal with Japan would boost the UK's GDP by around 0.07% over 15 years.

news.sky.com

It's a bit, well, shit, innit.

It's not exactly oven-baked.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It's not exactly oven-baked.

More half baked.

 

[Struwwelpeter]

Prediction time!

1) The Bill can't pass parliament. It might not even pass the HoC. Johnson's authority is so weak he is promising that no-one will lose the whip, so effectively a free vote. So I think the Bill will be pulled next week, and even if not, it is not getting through.

2) There's probably no way of watering down the Bill so that it does pass. This might be possible if the Tories were desperate to hang on to Johnson, but they are not.

3) Johnson then has three options.

A. Make the EU a serious offer.
B. Ask the EU for a further extension.
C. Resign so that someone else can do A or B.

Allowing a crash-out will not be an option because, the Bill not having passed, Johnson faces going down in history as not only having devastated the country's economic base, but also having given away NI for no real reward.

4) Johnson will chose B. But the EU will decline. They may or may not be explicit about it, but this will be done to force Johnson's resignation.

5) Johnson will try to go for option A, but will find that everyone around him prefers option C.

6) We'll get another year of Brexit and RS will be an incredibly popular PM until about August.

An optimistic set of predictions if ever there was. Ever since June 2016, when I predicted a narrow Remain victory followed by endless wrangling with brexiters, all my predictions have turned out worse and more chaotic than I thought. My current prediction is:

1) The Bill will have a rough ride with lots of amendments, but something with a few cosmetic nods to international law will pass.
2) The UKIP Tories are not yet weak enough to let Johnson go. The might hang on to him until within a year of the next GE.
3) This won't happen because 1 and 2 won't happen
4) The EU will turn a blind eye to goings on in Ireland for as long as they can, then use the threat of sanctions against UK and getting the Irish to pursue the main companies in breach of any cross border trade.
5) There will be mass unemployment, hunger and deprivation, because any deals with other nations will take a long time to sort out, given the bad faith caused by (1).
6) The overwhelmed police will be supported by the army, a policy that will generally be accepted except in urban areas.
7) The Red Wall/Sun/DM- reading electorate will either realise they've been had and take it out on the government with mass demonstrations, or blame the EU, the Irish etc. and take it out on anyone who looks a bit non-Anglo Saxon. I fear the latter.
8) The electoral system will be rigged and a minority Tory government under a new leader will be returned, given a working majority with support from a small number of proto-fascists/Faragist/EDL MPs in return for some seriously ugly policies (capital punishment, legalisation of racism etc)

I hope this will be my first prediction that is not overly optimistic

 

[MickiQ]

Another option might be to turn the UK into some kind of glorified Cayman Isles for his mates to get rich whilst the general population eats rats and acorns.

I think that's is the actual plan they are working towards

 

[Raheem]

Except they're going to buy up all the acorns.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

An optimistic set of predictions if ever there was. Ever since June 2016, when I predicted a narrow Remain victory followed by endless wrangling with brexiters, all my predictions have turned out worse and more chaotic than I thought. My current prediction is:

1) The Bill will have a rough ride with lots of amendments, but something with a few cosmetic nods to international law will pass.
2) The UKIP Tories are not yet weak enough to let Johnson go. The might hang on to him until within a year of the next GE.
3) This won't happen because 1 and 2 won't happen
4) The EU will turn a blind eye to goings on in Ireland for as long as they can, then use the threat of sanctions against UK and getting the Irish to pursue the main companies in breach of any cross border trade.
5) There will be mass unemployment, hunger and deprivation, because any deals with other nations will take a long time to sort out, given the bad faith caused by (1).
6) The overwhelmed police will be supported by the army, a policy that will generally be accepted except in urban areas.
7) The Red Wall/Sun/DM- reading electorate will either realise they've been had and take it out on the government with mass demonstrations, or blame the EU, the Irish etc. and take it out on anyone who looks a bit non-Anglo Saxon. I fear the latter.
8) The electoral system will be rigged and a minority Tory government under a new leader will be returned, given a working majority with support from a small number of proto-fascists/Faragist/EDL MPs in return for some seriously ugly policies (capital punishment, legalisation of racism etc)

I hope this will be my first prediction that is not overly optimistic

You haven’t mentioned Scotland or Northern Ireland.

 

[Struwwelpeter]

You haven’t mentioned Scotland or Northern Ireland.

True. I think that they won't get a say - I have no idea what the appetite for a fight would be, but the government will close any constitutional routes for separation. UDI in Scotland? Resumption of the Troubles in NI? I'd be interested to hear from anyone who has a better handle on those places.

 

[editor]

Have you noticed how all the pro-Brexit people seem to be getting progressively quieter? Perhaps even they're realising that it's a Class A Clusterfuck.

 

[Streathamite]

Have you noticed how all the pro-Brexit people seem to be getting progressively quieter? Perhaps even they're realising that it's a Class A Clusterfuck.

I noticed that on the Guardian politics live blog. At the time of the Referendum, and for many years before, they practically colonised the place. Now? rare as rocking horse shit
e2a: edited to amend my multiquote fuck-up

 

[ska invita]

Have you noticed how all the pro-Brexit people seem to be getting progressively quieter? Perhaps even they're realising that it's a Class A Clusterfuck.

Maybe because Brexit is won and Remainers have packed it in too

 

[Raheem]

Have you noticed how all the pro-Brexit people seem to be getting progressively quieter? Perhaps even they're realising that it's a Class A Clusterfuck.

TBF, a lot of them have died by now, which would also explain it.

 

[Roadkill]

I noticed that on the Guardian politics live blog. At the time of the Referendum, and for many years before, they practically colonised the place. Now? rare as rocking horse shit

There are still plenty of them on Twitter, mainly nationalist lunatics. The lexiters have gone quiet now though...

 

[Streathamite]

There are still plenty of them on Twitter, mainly nationalist lunatics. The lexiters have gone quiet now though...

hmm...interesting on both counts!

 

[Roadkill]

hmm...interesting on both counts!

I'd have hoped most lexiters would have the sense to realise by now that they got it catastrophically wrong.

To be entirely honest - and since I've got onto the subject - 'lexit' is actually why I stopped posting in 2016. Watching people I respect starting to argue positions I thought - rightly, as it turned out - were completely divorced from political reality was depressing.

 

[Streathamite]

I'd have hoped most lexiters would have the sense to realise by now that they got it catastrophically wrong.

To be entirely honest - and since I've got onto the subject - 'lexit' is actually why I stopped posting in 2016. Watching people I respect starting to argue positions I thought - rightly, as it turned out - were completely divorced from political reality was depressing.

yeah, I know that feeling. Like watching people voting and arguing for a\ slo-mo trainwreck, with us all secure;y strapped in

 

[existentialist]

More half baked.

I'll set 'em up...