pseudonarcissus
fluttering and dancing
The Chinese get carte Blanche with Hong Kong, for a start. They just need to realign their internal markets “in a limited and specific way”.
The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Surely they know that this support base will evaporate in a matter of hours as soon as the reality of new deal becomes apparent?
ska invita
back on the other side
that doesnt really work too well though when
1. the government have themselves said with some conviction they're really up for crashing out, and their disciples believe them
2. people like farage are today egging them on to do just that from the sidelines
- anything other than no deal now will look like capitulation - no matter how much they can try and blame it on the EU - the fact they've threatened to walk, backing down will from this bill will always be backing down - and thanks to this illegal bill, they'll be backing down off an even bigger ledge.
whatever, i hope they fall and break their necks.
unfortunately we're all tied to their ankles
....analogy ends....
maomao
普費斯
I think the EU imposing fines or sanctions would make Boris more popular with the out and out Brexit or die lot.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
But perhaps less popular with "oh, bless him, he's just a jolly good chap" lot, hopefully.
I'm not sure it will. Even if it goes the full 'no deal' crash-out that is unlikely to cause all hell to break loose immediately. There'll be disruption and shortages, but probably not on an unmanageable level, and I suspect some do really think they'll be able to bury part of it under Covid-related difficulties. The rest can be blamed on EU intransigence/punishment/vengefulness, and a fair few of the 'base' are going to be quite happy to believe that, especially if sanctions, fines or whatever are involved. Some will also continue to believe that more damage is being done to the EU than Britain, and cling to the hope that either it will come begging for a deal or just fall apart. It might take a long time and a fair bit of economic pain and political unpleasantness before that changes.
It's a long way from 'sunlit uplands' and 'having cake and eating it.'
Raheem
Well-Known Member
If it's allowed to get to that stage, it might not be all that high on anyone's list of things to care about.
ska invita
back on the other side
but looks who's in charge to manage it!
theyve got three and a half months to get everything in place, and theres the small matter of a pandemic to deal with too
im a bit of a doom-monger, i admit, but the odds on them dealing adequately with a crash out look slim to me
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Don't panic!
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
His lips were moving so it's clear he was.
Oh I don't think they'll deal with it adequately! It's a sign of their malevolent incompetence that it's now looking pretty likely as an outcome, and they'll fuck up managing it just as they've fucked up absolutely everything else. But we've seen with Covid that people will forgive a surprising amount, and there are a lot of people out there who still believe 'Boris' is a jolly good chap and/or that 'proper' Brexit must happen at any price. I can't see them turning on him. Not yet.
ska invita
back on the other side
ive got a good stock of towels, i'll be fine
Tbf Major, and for that matter Theresa May, are easily written off as remainers, and a lot of the senior backbenchers who've come out against it - Gale, Neill - supported remain too. Howard's more significant. One wonders how many he's speaking for. Perhaps quite a few, since this seems to point to quite a major rebellion:
Quite the constitutional crisis if it comes to it.
Brace, brace.
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, but I just don't think conventional assumptions regarding 'optics' work here & now. My gut reaction is that they will cave to a deal but have generated enough antagonistic shite from the blame sponge supra state to firmly establish their own 'creation myths' about Free Britain.
ska invita
back on the other side
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
sure it will, but that's a minority of those who voted Leave, and those whose votes the Tories need next time round. No Deal means - with absolute certainty - the disappearance, practically overnight of 44% of our export base and the colapse of the financial services sector.
Which in turn means the collapse of the British economy, plus food shortages.
Once that reality hits home, there's only so far brexiteer rhetoric and wrapping yourse3lves in the Union Jack will get them
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Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Plus a major diplomatic crisis: Pelosi has made it clear that we have zero hopes of any future trade deal with the US if we trash the GFA, and there are already governments all around the world saying, in diplomatic terms 'what the fuck are you playing at?". We are actually breaching the BVienna Convention, to which we are a signatory.
I've been racking my brains ever since this blew up yesterday, and I simply can't recall any instance, in the past few decades, of a liberal democracy threatening to both trash a treaty and break international law.
It's absolutely beyond mental.
Oh aye, and also the government saying in effect that it doesn't regard itself as bound by the rule of law.
I hate the old cliche about boiled frogs, but we do seem to have become so inured to political lunacy over the last few years that it no longer feels all that shocking.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
No!! say it isn't so
teuchter
je suis teuchter
This was the network being promoted somewhat on this thread some time ago...
Leave - Fight - Transform
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leftcampaign.org
seems to have gone quite after around February, although they seem to still exist on Twitter to some extent
ska invita
back on the other side
well quite a few posters wanted a no deal crash out according to the poll at the time, so I guess they're getting closer to satisfaction
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Those states/organisations that want to undermine the EU will see that the UK is OK in the event of a crisis, they need a ‘successful’ Brexit as an example to others and to stick it to the arrogant EU. The US (and not just the Republicans) doesn’t like EU protectionism such as food standards, or the attempt to regulate/tax big tech and other transnational business. Remember that it was big tech and wingnut capitalists that enabled all this in the first place. We’ll be the bridgehead in their war. Hence Trump etc talking up having a deal ready to put in place very quickly, I’ve no doubt they intend to do this. They’ll also get a better deal if we have a little period of panic before lying down for them, and aren’t closely tied to EU rules. I don’t see anything happening that goes against this plan.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Nobody but the UK needs a successful Brexit. Everyone except the UK and in many respects the EU benefits far more from overall disruption and chaos.
ska invita
back on the other side
There are rightwing nationalist protectionist movements across europe who want to see it be successful for their own political projects
Supine
Newt Member
Some bunches of nutters, not states though
mauvais
on reddit or something
Small fry though and they still don't need it. Even a miserable failure can be partly written off as uniquely British circumstances.
ska invita
back on the other side
thats very dismissive of whats happening in Europe
Some bunch of nutters currently have an 80 seat majority in the UK parliament
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