The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[NoXion]

Not sure why protectionism is inherently a bad thing. Why should we outsource everything like the neolibs love to do?

 

[The39thStep]

I'm very fond of Deux

 

[Pickman's model]

Not sure why protectionism is inherently a bad thing. Why should we outsource everything like the neolibs love to do?

We should outsource our neolibs to the British Antarctic Territory

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I’ve got Slovakian (eu) citizenship, just realising I should definitely put that on my future online dating profile if I do that next year, probably better currency than pretending to read deep books or be able to cook.

Seems you and your beau would need to live in Slovakia for five years after your big day for him to get the passport.

gets up off his creaking knee

 

[cloudyday]

Thee Milkshakes to be the post brexit uk music ambassadors

 

[teqniq]

 

[alex_]

I don't think we're disagreeing are we? You're absolutely right the deal is only the start of a long process, and I suppose I'm arguing we ought to be thinking more about that than bemoaning the fact it's happening. In that sense remainers do just have to deal with it. As you imply, though, the question is how stable the deal turns out to be in its fundamentals. That brings us back to the question of whether the current truce in the Tory party lasts or not....

The Swiss are in continual negotiations with the eu, the only way we stop negotiating with the EU is by rejoining. if that’s not an option - we will continually be in negotiation for some aspect of something or other.

johnsons latest con is that this process has finished, the deal just closed sets up the system the perpetual negotiation takes place in.

watch this space for brexiteers telling us they’ve not read this agreement

 

[magneze]

Even within the EU you have to negotiate too. Different things perhaps but you still have to do it.

 

[rutabowa]

I suspect both brexiteers and remainers have common ground in not having read this agreement.

 

[Serge Forward]

The Centre Party are a right wing nationalist and protectionist party who want to leave Schengen for fear of who will come in to Norway
From 2012: "Schengen Agreement makes it easier for criminals to enter the country....Klinge said the problem was particularly serious because Bulgaria and Romania could enter the Schengen area in the autumn."
Theres a wave of anti-migrant fear in Norway and Sweden in recent years

So yeah, some more-Scandi-polite version of UKIP like the UKs deal - no surprise there.
Is points based immigration and flag-draped protectionism really a future that appeals to you?

That's not entirely accurate, they're not exactly far right and were part of the red-green coalition, though they are rightish. I'd say they were a less swivel-eyed version of UKIP with a bit of 'progressive' bollocks thrown in. Either way, they're still a shower of cunts.

 

[Raheem]

Not sure why protectionism is inherently a bad thing.

Feels like there's something grim about embracing it only in respect of people and fish, though.

 

[The39thStep]

“Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the world’s wealthiest and most prosperous people

 

[ska invita]

That's not entirely accurate, they're not exactly far right and were part of the red-green coalition, though they are rightish. I'd say they were a less swivel-eyed version of UKIP with a bit of 'progressive' bollocks thrown in. Either way, they're still a shower of cunts.

Yes agree... I didn't say far right btw, just right wing... "centrists"
Coalition formations are a bit more of a mixed bag under proportional representation

 

[brogdale]

No doubt some folk will be losing off some fireworks tonight at 11:00pm?

 

[magneze]

The left must stop mourning Brexit – and start seeing its huge potential | Larry Elliott

Those who predict economic Armageddon ignore the reality. The status quo wasn’t working, says the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

Pretty optimistic take here.

Personally I feel that threads like this need to die quickly in 2021 (sorry, brogdale). If everything continues to be seen through the prism of Brexit then I suspect discussions will never really move on.

 

[brogdale]

The left must stop mourning Brexit – and start seeing its huge potential | Larry Elliott

Those who predict economic Armageddon ignore the reality. The status quo wasn’t working, says the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

Pretty optimistic take here.

Personally I feel that threads like this need to die quickly in 2021 (sorry, brogdale). If everything continues to be seen through the prism of Brexit then I suspect discussions will never really move on.

No worries; kind of hope you're right, but fear you're not, tbh.
This has legs.

 

[The39thStep]

The left must stop mourning Brexit – and start seeing its huge potential | Larry Elliott

Those who predict economic Armageddon ignore the reality. The status quo wasn’t working, says the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com

Pretty optimistic take here.

Personally I feel that threads like this need to die quickly in 2021 (sorry, brogdale). If everything continues to be seen through the prism of Brexit then I suspect discussions will never really move on.

If you’ve got posters advocating /campaigning for rejoin or join the EEA then regrettably the discussion won’t move on .

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think what you're describing is the 'turn a blind eye' option.
I suppose the EU can undercut the trade in Mongolian Yaks by sending them undetected across the Irish border into the UK.
I am not 100% sure that the brexit mantra of controlling the UK borders is achieved by not controlling the UK borders.

I'm not 100٪ sure all the mantras are as important as some people think they are.

Sure, call it a 'turn a blind eye' option if you like but in all kinds of different ways, lots of things will be determined by who decides to implement what operational changes first and in what areas. Enforcing any changes to the rules will be a complex process, not least because for both sides it will be a political decision, and there is always the possibility that individual firms and regulatory bodies could pursue retaliatory legal challenges to operational changes I would imagine.

 

[The39thStep]

Leaving the EU means UK governments no longer have anywhere to hide. They have economic levers they can pull – procurement, tax, ownership, regulation, investment in infrastructure, subsidies for new industries, trade policy – and they will come under pressure to use them.'

 

[Artaxerxes]

Brexit is just not going to end, this isn't even a finalised deal with so much still uncertain.

Boris seems to have it in his head this is going to be something the Tories can work on and use for years in the neverending culture war that he seems keen to foster.


This blog says it well.

Brexit & Beyond

<a rel="me" href="https://mastodon.online/@ChrisGrey">Mastodon</a>

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

Never-ending Brexit

So what is now in prospect is an entirely new phase of Brexit. Whilst I don’t think it is helpful to dissect the deal in terms of EU or UK wins and losses, one clear victory for the EU was to create a single, over-arching agreement rather than, as the UK government had wanted, a series of separate agreements. With that has come an immensely complex governance architecture, consisting of a Partnership Council along with a myriad of over thirty sub-groups. There are also a whole series of mechanisms for reviews, including a five-yearly review of the whole deal.

Taken together, this means that there will be the ongoing possibility of the relationship becoming closer or more distant over time, and even of the entire deal being scrapped and ‘no deal’ returning. This is not surprising – I’ve remarked many times on this blog that a deal would not be the end of Brexit, but the beginning of a new kind of process – but the extent and complexity of the institutional framework within which this is going to occur perhaps is surprising.

Numerous commentators have already remarked on the implication that the deal is “a five year political truce” (David Allen Green) and that “negotiations over something or other will continue for years to come” (Sam Lowe, Centre for European Reform) so that “we are going to see the same dynamic in future that we have witnessed over the last four years: constant talking and bickering” (Ian Dunt) with the deal “just the end of the beginning” (Tom Hayes, Brussels European Employee Relations Group). (Each of the commentaries linked to is well worth reading in full.)

In consequence, as the former Brexit Party MEP Alexandra Phillips recognizes (£), the deal “could turn out to be a springboard towards greater divergence or an umbilical cord leading us back to Brussels”. This situation has considerable economic significance – most obviously because it does not create a very promising environment for foreign investment – but an even greater political one. It creates a new context in which both pro- and anti-EU actors can work.

It’s not hard to see that the ERG and others will be agitating for greater divergence and perhaps, eventually, for an end to the entire deal. One obvious fight they may push for is over the linkage of the security parts of the deal to the UK’s continuing membership of the European Convention of Human Rights, which some of them long to derogate from. It is of note that this aspect of the deal is (apart from fisheries) the only one which is already being described as a ‘betrayal’ in the Brexit press.

But a future Labour, or even Conservative, government might well seek to make the deal closer or deeper. Indeed the Best for Britain campaign has already identified ten ways in which this should be done. Erstwhile remainers as well as business groups will certainly have the opportunity to lobby for such improvements, and Ian Dunt’s analysis is that the logic of economic and geographical proximity means they have a good chance of success. At the very least there is still much to play for, starting – as again I’ve argued in several recent posts – with the need to wrest from Brexiters control of the narrative of UK-EU relations so as to move it on from their monocular focus on Brexit and away from the invariable toxicity of their tone.

Brexiters have got their Brexit against what almost all opinion polls since the Referendum have shown the majority to want, and in a form which the majority never wanted. They own that, and we’ll see how it works out, but they do not own our future relationship with the EU.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Government finally released some case studies to. Just 4 hours to get used to them.

 

[brogdale]

Government finally released some case studies to. Just 4 hours to get used to them.

It's when you see these things written down, isn't it?

 

[DJWrongspeed]

Do you think drug dealers will be having a field day tomorrow at out port entry points or will customs be wise it?

 

[Pickman's model]

No doubt some folk will be losing off some fireworks tonight at 11:00pm?

Rule takers to the bitter end

 

[brogdale]

So....here we go.

Do you have the correct papers?

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I can hear fireworks, but if they're Brexiteers I suppose it's possible they forgot to put their clocks back in October.

 

[two sheds]

What's all this about taking back control? We left half an hour ago - at 12:00 Brussels time

 

[TopCat]

Brexit: in crisis, without fanfare, UK finally ends the EU era

Boris Johnson largely ignores Brexit in new year message to focus on toll of Covid and ‘the grimness of 2020’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Gerry1time]

Do you think drug dealers will be having a field day tomorrow at out port entry points or will customs be wise it?

According to Howards Marks' autobography at least, isn't customs being wise to it been the way drugs have often come into this country previously.

 

[brogdale]

Things so hotly debated now coming to pass...

A new trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK began operating at 23:00 GMT on Thursday.
The 'Irish Sea border' is a consequence of Brexit.
It means that most commercial goods entering Northern Ireland from Great Britain now require a customs declaration.
However, the UK government announced a three-month 'grace period' for parcels, meaning those sent by online retailers will be exempt until at least April.