The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Silas Loom]

It’s not Brexit itself that philosophical is obsessed with so much as his own cognitive dissonance. He was insistent from day 1 that Brexit would be impossible because Ireland and I see that all these years later, he’s still insisting that he was right in face of all hard reality. His resolution to this dissonance follows the classic pattern that Festinger laid down back in 1957 — rationalisation. In his case this is involving holding that what has happened isn’t actually Brexit. Which will come as a shock to the millions of people who are now having to engage in large amounts of extra bureaucracy in order to trade with or live in Europe.

Some hard brexiters insisted that the UK could adopt post-Brexit operating models that could never be practically negotiated, because of Ireland, and could never be practically achieved, because of friction, intertia and expense.

Those models are still touted by those hard brexiters as being “what was voted for”. They also explain away the horrible consequences of Brexit - which are visible, as you say, to millions - by saying, risibly, that they were caused by failure to adopt those models.

philosophical is well within his rights to have maintained consistently that Ireland was the blocker on allowing fanciful versions of Brexit to be negotiated with the EU, and also to maintain that whatever it is we have now is not what hard Brexiters were lobbying for.

That being so, it really does not seem fair to weaponise the language of clinical psychology for ad hominem dismissals of his viewpoint.

 

[brogdale]

Some hard brexiters insisted that the UK could adopt post-Brexit operating models that could never be practically negotiated, because of Ireland, and could never be practically achieved, because of friction, intertia and expense.

Those models are still touted by those hard brexiters as being “what was voted for”. They also explain away the horrible consequences of Brexit - which are visible, as you say, to millions - by saying, risibly, that they were caused by failure to adopt those models.

philosophical is well within his rights to have maintained consistently that Ireland was the blocker on allowing fanciful versions of Brexit to be negotiated with the EU, and that also to maintain that whatever it is we have now is not what hard Brexiters were lobbying for.

That being so, it really does not seem fair to weaponise the language of clinical psychology for ad hominem dismissals of his viewpoint.

Yes, the issue of Brexit & Ireland emerged again, on Budget day +1, when Hunt revealed that vermin aspirations of raise the VAT threshold on small businesses was limited by the NI protocol and need to maintain constant rates between NI & GB.

 

[kabbes]

Some hard brexiters insisted that the UK could adopt post-Brexit operating models that could never be practically negotiated, because of Ireland, and could never be practically achieved, because of friction, intertia and expense.

Those models are still touted by those hard brexiters as being “what was voted for”. They also explain away the horrible consequences of Brexit - which are visible, as you say, to millions - by saying, risibly, that they were caused by failure to adopt those models.

philosophical is well within his rights to have maintained consistently that Ireland was the blocker on allowing fanciful versions of Brexit to be negotiated with the EU, and also to maintain that whatever it is we have now is not what hard Brexiters were lobbying for.

That being so, it really does not seem fair to weaponise the language of clinical psychology for ad hominem dismissals of his viewpoint.

It’s more social-cognitive psychological than clinical psychological, I’d say. But anyway.

The point is that people at no point in any election or referendum ticked a box that said “hard Brexit”. So it’s nonsense to suggest that they didn’t get what they voted for. They voted for Britain to leave the EU and Britain has indeed left the EU. These “fanciful versions of Brexit” were simply alternative representations of the idea of what “leaving” might mean, which collectively floated around post-vote. Some of them were serious proposals, some were tactical positioning and some were never more than a strawman in the heads of opponents. Philosophical has constructed a version of the latter and has apparently been struggling ever since to understand how and why the rest of the world hasn’t constructed it the same way.

 

[philosophical]

In that case, your vote for the Greens is a vote for everything the Greens have done and ever will do if they get into power.

You. can't have it both ways.

You can if the vote leave is a one off binary forever vote, but voting for the Greens or anybody else only lasts for five years.

 

[philosophical]

It’s more social-cognitive psychological than clinical psychological, I’d say. But anyway.

The point is that people at no point in any election or referendum ticked a box that said “hard Brexit”. So it’s nonsense to suggest that they didn’t get what they voted for. They voted for Britain to leave the EU and Britain has indeed left the EU. These “fanciful versions of Brexit” were simply alternative representations of the idea of what “leaving” might mean, which collectively floated around post-vote. Some of them were serious proposals, some were tactical positioning and some were never more than a strawman in the heads of opponents. Philosophical has constructed a version of the latter and has apparently been struggling ever since to understand how and why the rest of the world hasn’t constructed it the same way.

They voted for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to leave, not Britain.
If you want evidence of that look at the ballot paper.

 

[two sheds]

Better to jump rather than be pushed

Defenestration you reckon? Harsh but fair.

 

[cupid_stunt]

They voted for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to leave, not Britain.
If you want evidence of that look at the ballot paper.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Yeah, the LibDems were pushing really hard even before Mrs. May's resignation. The Tories lost control of the council to the LibDems, in a quite a spectacular defeat, and the local politics groups seem tired of the Tory party in general, so i think the LibDems feel this is the biggest chance they'll get.

do you know how the gerrymandering boundary changes will affect it? I'm aware that the western chunk of current maidenhead constituency is getting 'moved' in to the wokingham constituency, but not sure where maidenhead is getting instead.

 

[ska invita]

Gossip on the new independent socialist councillors thing

Where next for left? - Weekly Worker

Are Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway about to join forces? Carla Roberts takes a look at what is going on between these two reformist charlatans and the pending launch of yet another unprincipled lash-up - this time called Collective

weeklyworker.co.uk

"
Might such a newly formed ‘movement’, called Collective, overcome the mish-mash of leftie candidates standing on pretty much the same political platform? And, crucially, can it go beyond electoral strategy and beyond reformist platitudes and start organising the socialist left on the basis of a serious, socialist programme and in a democratic and transparent way?


Collective was rather hastily launched at the ‘No Ceasefire, No Vote’ conference on March 2 in London, officially put on by “independent socialist councillors”. Thanks to Andrew Feinstein’s widely pre-advertised speech, a rally about Palestine rather suddenly turned into “the launch of a mass movement to the left of Labour”.13


Registered at Company’s House on February 28 as ‘Justice Collective Ltd’, it features journalist Justin Schlosberg and Pamela Fitzpatrick as company directors. The latter is also co-director of the ‘Peace and Justice Project’ (the other one is Jeremy Corbyn). The platform on March 2 also included Lindsey German, Claudia Webbe MP, Salma Yaqoob and Jamie Driscoll (North of Tyne mayor).


Andrew Murray is also very much involved. A member of the Morning Star’s Communist Party of Britain, he formally left in 2016 after he was ‘seconded’ by Unite to support Jeremy Corbyn as a political advisor (along with two other former Straight Leftists, Seumas Milne and Steve Howell). With the collapse of the Corbyn project in December 2019 his entry work in the Labour Party came to an end and he formally rejoined. Whether or not the CPB is on board with Collective is another matter, but, thank god, the stillborn Transform is.14


Transform is one of the organisations listed as “in solidarity.”15 The others are the For the Many Network, the Liverpool Community Independents and Reliance (who?). There was a lot of crossover between those groups already, so it is not exactly breaking new ground. But, because of the people on board, Collective looks more serious than the multitude of recently formed groups and organisations (but then it is hard to look less serious).


The good thing about Collective is that it recognises the need to “form a party”. The bad thing is - it is (so far) operating on an even lower political basis than the many, many groups and grouplets that have clotted together since the defeat of the Corbyn movement. Its programme is centred on the call for an “immediate and permanent ceasefire”, with the five tame demands of the Peace and Justice Project tacked on:

• A real pay rise for all
• Green New Deal
• Housing for the many
• Tax the rich to save the NHS
• Welcome refugees and a world free from war

It seems rather odd that Collective only wants to turn into a party after the general election. But we are guessing that this has a lot to do with one Jeremy Corbyn. He wants to contest the next general election as an ‘independent candidate’ and does not want to be dragged down by this or that group - or fellow members of parliament."

 

[PR1Berske]

do you know how the gerrymandering boundary changes will affect it? I'm aware that the western chunk of current maidenhead constituency is getting 'moved' in to the wokingham constituency, but not sure where maidenhead is getting instead.

 

[Dystopiary]

Back to Theresa May, Jess Phillips is calling her choice of the Maidenhead Advertiser for this announcement “classy”. I get the point, and going to the Hymen Gazette rather than to Twitter is definitely a laudable signal to her constituents.

But I don’t think that any Labour MP should be using “classy” as a term of approbation. It feels very off, and I’m often confused to see it here as well. Or am I completely misunderstanding the etymology?

I hate the word and am surprised how often it's used sarcastically by people on the left.

 

[QueenOfGoths]

do you know how the gerrymandering boundary changes will affect it? I'm aware that the western chunk of current maidenhead constituency is getting 'moved' in to the wokingham constituency, but not sure where maidenhead is getting instead.

I don't actually I'm afraid

Just been looking at the changes. The majority is still Maidenhead, which will continue be the largest urban area iyswim. Not sure how Twyford leaving will affect things, that was the second biggest urban area I think

Parts of Ascot, which is in RBWM but wasn't part of the Maidenhead constituency until the current changes, does have its fair share of rabid Tories (Yes Mrs. Hilton I am thinking of you!!) and the Ascot and Sunninghill ward did vote in 3 Tory councillors at the last local elections, contrary to most other areas in the borough, so that could bolster the Tory vote but I think it will voters from Maidenhead itself who have the most influence

eta: although, looking closer at the map, it's not Ascot and Sunningdale that are moving to Maidenhead it's the Bracknell Forest side of Ascot. Hmmm. Interesting

 

[PR1Berske]

I don't actually I'm afraid

Just been looking at the changes. The majority is still Maidenhead, which will continue be the largest urban area iyswim. Not sure how Twyford leaving will affect things, that was the second biggest urban area I think

Parts of Ascot, which is in RBWM but wasn't part of the Maidenhead constituency until the current changes, does have its fair share of rabid Tories (Yes Mrs. Hilton I am thinking of you!!) and the Ascot and Sunninghill ward did vote in 3 Tory councillors at the last local elections, contrary to most other areas in the borough, so that could bolster the Tory vote but I think it will voters from Maidenhead itself who have the most influence

eta: although, looking closer at the map, it's not Ascot and Sunningdale that are moving to Maidenhead it's the Bracknell Forest side of Ascot. Hmmm. Interesting

 

[PTK]

Back to Theresa May, Jess Phillips is calling her choice of the Maidenhead Advertiser for this announcement “classy”. I get the point, and going to the Hymen Gazette rather than to Twitter is definitely a laudable signal to her constituents.

But I don’t think that any Labour MP should be using “classy” as a term of approbation. It feels very off, and I’m often confused to see it here as well. Or am I completely misunderstanding the etymology?

I think that making the announcement in the local paper is laudable.

 

[brogdale]

I think that making the announcement in the local paper is laudable.

Or meaningless, knowing, performative localism designed to garner plaudits.

 

[Silas Loom]

Or meaningless, knowing, performative localism designed to garner plaudits.

Why would she need to bother? She’s serious about going full time on the modern slavery stuff and isn’t really a political performer, as we saw in 2017.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Somewhat surprised to have just had a Labour GE campaign leaflet delivered, and it's targeted for this village, with a quote from a local resident commenting on how the candidate, who is both a doctor and leader of Worthing Borough Council, knows the village well and the threats it faces of overdevelopment, there's additional quotes of support from a local business owner, and a GP - all very slick for the target audience.

It has always been a safe Tory seat, even in the Labour landslide of 1997 Bottomley had a majority of 7,713, but Electoral Calculus currently predicts there's 81% chance of Labour winning, so they are clearly going to throw a lot of resources into kicking the 'Father of the House' out.

View attachment 413923


So, has the campaign started where you are?

I am even more surprised that just under 2 weeks later, I've just had the second Labour GE leaflet delivered, this one is a more general one, clearly focusing on a wider area, as it was delivered by the Royal Mail, so they are throwing a lot of money into winning this seat.

Nothing at all received from any of the other parties.

 

[kebabking]

I am even more surprised that just under 2 weeks later, I've just had the second Labour GE leaflet delivered, this one is a more general one, clearly focusing on a wider area, as it was delivered by the Royal Mail, so they are throwing a lot of money into winning this seat.

Nothing at all received from any of the other parties.

Out here in leafy Worcestershire, labour are delivering one leaflet a month or so. The local Tory association are apparently about 20 people, almost all ancient, and are all at the UKIP end of the the Tory party. They've not delivered any leaflets or done any canvassing or whatever in town in years.

20k majority - having been Lab, and independent, and then Tory - since '97. Expected to just about hang on at the next GE (no idea why, MP is utterly useless, and earns about £150k a year outside of his MP's salary...).

 

[GarveyLives]

The terrifying shape of things to come:

The terrifying shape of things to come:

"The recent spate of vile anti-Muslim rhetoric from the Tories shows they have decided that stoking hatred against minorities is their only way to avoid electoral annihilation ..."

These ruthless, bigoted Tories would have Enoch Powell smiling from his grave

 

[GarveyLives]

The terrifying shape of things to come:

"He who pays the piper calls the tune" ...

 

[GarveyLives]

The terrifying shape of things to come:

"He who pays the piper calls the tune" ...

One cannot fault their honesty:

Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester

 

[PR1Berske]

Rishi has told ITV West Country (what was TSW in old money) that there are enough important elections happening on May 2nd so a general election won't be amongst them.

 

[Elpenor]

PCC elections are not important

 

[cupid_stunt]

Rishi has told ITV West Country (what was TSW in old money) that there are enough important elections happening on May 2nd so a general election won't be amongst them.

It was Westward TV in proper old money, from 1961-81, when those TSW young'uns replaced them.

 

[brogdale]

Rishi has told ITV West Country (what was TSW in old money) that there are enough important elections happening on May 2nd so a general election won't be amongst them.

And on C4N Gary Gibbon related that he'd been told that some staff at CCHQ had been tasked on scoping a "summer election". The implication being that the only way that rat-boy can ride-out the blowback from the May locals debacle will be to put the party into an immediate 'war' footing.

 

[PR1Berske]

And on C4N Gary Gibbon related that he'd been told that some staff at CCHQ had been tasked on scoping a "summer election". The implication being that the only way that rat-boy can ride-out the blowback from the May locals debacle will be to put the party into an immediate 'war' footing.

July and August are rarely chosen (if ever?) so I wonder if that means the day after a cull of Tory Councillors he goes straight to the Palace and asks Charlie (or William, or Harry, or who knows at this point) for an immediate June poll.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Charlie (or William, or Harry, or who knows at this point)

I'm putting my money on Kang.

 

[brogdale]

July and August are rarely chosen (if ever?) so I wonder if that means the day after a cull of Tory Councillors he goes straight to the Palace and asks Charlie (or William, or Harry, or who knows at this point) for an immediate June poll.

Gibbon was also suggesting that he's heard (parliamentary) tory views that rat-boy can't possibly make it through to the winter without facing a leadership election.

 

[Elpenor]

I heard the latest idea is to hope there’s a Euros / Olympics boost to people’s morale and then call an election

 

[GarveyLives]

One cannot fault their honesty:

Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester

"Rishi Sunak is under fresh pressure over his ties to Frank Hester - the party donor embroiled in a race row - amid reports his party received £5m more than previously declared ..."

Frank Hester: Prime Minister under pressure over 'new £5m' from donor accused of racism