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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

Here's the fun bit -

The scale of the rout under this projection means many of the Tories' biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, David Davies, the Welsh secretary and Johnny Mercer, the armed forces minister in the cabinet are all on course to lose their seats under this projection.

Twelve of the 26 members of the cabinet who are running for re-election are at risk in total. In addition, the future of Steve Baker, Cabinet Office minister, and Bim Afolami, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and Lee Rowley, housing, planning and building safety minister, are all hanging in the balance, the projection suggests. Twenty-two of the 45 ministers of the government confirmed to stand are at risk.

 
is it lib dem campaign policy that all their candidates wear stupid hats and dick about on water slides, inflatables and obstable courses like they're in some cutprice reboot of "its a knockout"? They just need stuart hall to do the comentary on July 4th "And here come the lib dems, .. they've played their joker! oh - but they're stuggling through the crazy castle .... AND ITS A LOST DESPOSIT!!"
I don't think Stuart Hall is criminal or sleazy enough the party of Jeremy Thorpe, Cyril Smith, and Clement Freud
 
Just announced Sky News/YouGov MRP poll result -

Labour maj. 194 seats.


Labour - 422 (+221)
Tories - 140 (-232)
LDs - 48 (+40)
SNP - only 17! (-31)
Green - 2 (+1)
Oh Noes how terrible, I suspect it will be less than than that but I can't imagine it being less than a 100 now. What I would like to see based on those figures is those 2 Green MP's being elected. A Green led Govt would be an unmitigated disaster but the one thing the Greens have done is to bring home the point that people are concerned (albeit to different degrees) about climate change and all major parties have a got a little bit more green tinged as a result. Driving this point over a bit more will be a good thing though I still suspect they might get pipped at the post.
I'm drawing up a list of things to check on Election night and will add count Green MP's and check Clacton to see if the Frog Lord wins to that list.
 
Nigel Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to be elected as an MP, having contested these elections …

1994 Eastleigh byelection (Votes 952, vote share 1.7%, 4th)
1997 Salisbury (3,332, 5.7%, 4th)
2001 Bexhill and Battle (3,474, 7.8%, 4th)
2005 South Thanet (2,079, 5%, 4th)
2006 Bromley and Chislehurst byelection (2,307, 8%, 3rd - Rachel Reeves was 4th)
2010 Buckingham (8,410, 17.4%, 3rd - running against speaker John Bercow. 2nd was John Stevens representing the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy)
2015 South Thanet (16,026, 32.4%, 2nd)
A real man of the people.

Well, the people who happen to be wherever he fancies his chances at the time.
 
Shapps just called one of the presenters live on Sky News, he answered asking what Shapps thought about this poll, and that he would be losing his seat, Shapps just hung up.

:D

Oh, even better, Shapps is due to be interviewed by Sophy Ridge on her Sky 7pm show, I wonder if he'll turn up.
 
Blow it up with high explosives pulverise into brick dust, load the brick dust into a rocket and fire the rocket into the heart of the sun
Essex owes me at least a little fun after all these years of accepting its existence
 
Oh, even better, Shapps is due to be interviewed by Sophy Ridge on her Sky 7pm show, I wonder if he'll turn up.
I have to assume he'll be announcing he's standing down, and actually made this decision weeks ago but wanted to tell his staff first, and Alice was on annual leave for a couple of weeks, then Gary was off sick...

No, none of the staff are available for comment, please respect their privacy at this difficult time.
 
I have to assume he'll be announcing he's standing down, and actually made this decision weeks ago but wanted to tell his staff first, and Alice was on annual leave for a couple of weeks, then Gary was off sick...

No, none of the staff are available for comment, please respect their privacy at this difficult time.
Photos below, of Alice and Gary, along with Michael, Corinne and Sebastian:

1717434799893.png1717434801769.png1717434812285.png1717434807960.png 1717434824355.png
 
Keep in mind that Clacton was briefly UKIP, when Douglas Carswell defected from the Tories. He won the subsequent by-election, and the 2015, but didn't stand in 2017, when UKIP were dumped to third, with the Tories retaking it.

That suggests Carswell the man may have been more popular there than either of his parties.
 
I reckon farage will win that seat and I reckon reform will around the same share of the popular vote as the LDs if not more.
 
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