The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
Rob the young to feed the old that are already rich enough to benefit from the tax cut.. The old that aren’t can just suck it.
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kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
That’s a hell of a spread. Might as well just shrug. I’d be interested to know what “feasible” translates to. That will depend on methodology. Is it a confidence interval, for example, arising from statistical modelling? Is it a scenario test? Is it just the aggregation of lots of individual unlikely but feasible results? Very different things.
prunus
Tick tock.
Yes it’s pretty meaningless without some kind of distribution descriptors.
I’d hazard it’s not CI though, as I don’t think there’s enough error (in a statistical sense) in any of the polling to give Reform 16 seats. Or even 1.
I’d guess it’s the third of your list. Some of the extremes are probably vanishingly unlikely, although that isn’t indicated in a bald list of spreads like that. Should probably read the source material but y’know, can’t be bothered. It’ll all be moot in less than 6 weeks and I’ve got other things to do.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I predict Labour will get between zero and 600 seats.
I predict a football team will win the euros.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Not precise enough, I'm afraid. Which euros?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Between 1935 and 1975 63,000 women who the Swedish state decided were eugenically unfit were forcibly sterilised. The Danes has a similar policy in Greenland in the 1960s and 1970s where Inuit women and girls were secretly fitted with coils to control the growth of the non-nordic population. Hardly the Social Democratic paradises some would like us to believe. And let's not forget IKEA that great purveyor of flat back furniture and Meatballs. Founded by a young Nazi, Ingvar Kamprad in 1942, run by him until his death in 2018 and widely promoted as symbolising all that is wonderful about the Swedish way
Sweden forced sterilisation - European Disability Forum
Sweden forced sterilisation
The Fins also had one of the most lenient post war trials after fighting on the Nazis side in which after a few years all those guilty were pardoned and released.
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
Don't worry Rishi, these poor fuckers have your back....just after they get back from the foodbank
The SNP will get between 1 and 54 seats.
Out of the 59 in Scotland they're running in.
Insightful work from the Economist.
Jennaonthebeach
What would Picard do?
Just a long winded way of saying the Tories can't win. Though I note it leaves open the possibly of the Tories doing deals and getting back into power that way.
GarveyLives
Well-Known Member
The terrifying shape of things to come:
BBC apologises to Nigel Farage over impartiality breach after calling his language ‘inflammatory’
BBC apologises to Nigel Farage over impartiality breach after calling his language ‘inflammatory’
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
latest poll - first by this polling company since the election was called.
Survation
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead, highest since November 2022.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)
F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024
ETA - another poll out today -
Redfield Wilton
12,000 Sample.
Labour leads by 23%.
Westminster Voting Intention (25-27 May):
Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 19 May
So its all pretty much as you were - tories fucked. Polls havent really moved in 6 months.
Survation
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.
23 point Labour lead, highest since November 2022.
LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)
F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024
ETA - another poll out today -
Redfield Wilton
12,000 Sample.
Labour leads by 23%.
Westminster Voting Intention (25-27 May):
Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 19 May
So its all pretty much as you were - tories fucked. Polls havent really moved in 6 months.
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Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
It's funny, Rayner could stand again for Labour while this (laughable) investigation was going on. Diane Abbot can't stand for Labour even though her investigation finished months ago. Funny that.
ruffneck23
front left
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
feeling sleepy already
Serge Forward
Just enjoyin' my coffee.
Two Tory twats talking twaddle.
say it fast 6 times
say it fast 6 times
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
I'd rather spend an hour pulling my toenails out with rusty pliers.
ska invita
back on the other side
....what about the Labour Health Secretary though
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
They'll be just as shit as the tories.
ska invita
back on the other side
What I mean is if they talk about the NHS then Wes Streeting will get more privatising airtime!
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
When
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
I think it’s dangerous to have two black holes in such close proximity!
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, I was regarding this in purely electoral strategy terms.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
TBF this is absolutely the standard of testable prediction we've come to expect from the highly legitimate, definitely non-bullshit discipline of economics.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Smacks of carelessness.
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