The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Dogsauce]

I want to challenge ‘British values’ ffs. Especially all the cap-doffing shit, public school-oxbridge-government pipeline etc. Anyone sane should.

 

[PR1Berske]

The Economist has published its first "seat spread" prediction, looking at the feasible low and high figures for the result on polling day. 326 required for a majority.

Labour 305-397
Con 82 (!!!)-266
LD 8-58
SNP 1-54
Reform 0-16

 

[kabbes]

So, rob the young to feed the old, is it? They're so transparent.

Rob the young to feed the old that are already rich enough to benefit from the tax cut.. The old that aren’t can just suck it.

 

[kabbes]

The Economist has published its first "seat spread" prediction, looking at the feasible low and high figures for the result on polling day. 326 required for a majority.

Labour 305-397
Con 82 (!!!)-266
LD 8-58
SNP 1-54
Reform 0-16

That’s a hell of a spread. Might as well just shrug. I’d be interested to know what “feasible” translates to. That will depend on methodology. Is it a confidence interval, for example, arising from statistical modelling? Is it a scenario test? Is it just the aggregation of lots of individual unlikely but feasible results? Very different things.

 

[prunus]

That’s a hell of a spread. Might as well just shrug. I’d be interested to know what “feasible” translates to. That will depend on methodology. Is it a confidence interval, for example, arising from statistical modelling? Is it a scenario test? Is it just the aggregation of lots of individual unlikely but feasible results? Very different things.

Yes it’s pretty meaningless without some kind of distribution descriptors.

I’d hazard it’s not CI though, as I don’t think there’s enough error (in a statistical sense) in any of the polling to give Reform 16 seats. Or even 1.

I’d guess it’s the third of your list. Some of the extremes are probably vanishingly unlikely, although that isn’t indicated in a bald list of spreads like that. Should probably read the source material but y’know, can’t be bothered. It’ll all be moot in less than 6 weeks and I’ve got other things to do.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The Economist has published its first "seat spread" prediction, looking at the feasible low and high figures for the result on polling day. 326 required for a majority.

Labour 305-397
Con 82 (!!!)-266
LD 8-58
SNP 1-54
Reform 0-16

I predict Labour will get between zero and 600 seats.

I predict a football team will win the euros.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

I predict Labour will get between zero and 600 seats.

I predict a football team will win the euros.

Not precise enough, I'm afraid. Which euros?

 

[The39thStep]

Between 1935 and 1975 63,000 women who the Swedish state decided were eugenically unfit were forcibly sterilised. The Danes has a similar policy in Greenland in the 1960s and 1970s where Inuit women and girls were secretly fitted with coils to control the growth of the non-nordic population. Hardly the Social Democratic paradises some would like us to believe. And let's not forget IKEA that great purveyor of flat back furniture and Meatballs. Founded by a young Nazi, Ingvar Kamprad in 1942, run by him until his death in 2018 and widely promoted as symbolising all that is wonderful about the Swedish way

Sweden forced sterilisation - European Disability Forum

Sweden forced sterilisation

www.edf-feph.org

The Fins also had one of the most lenient post war trials after fighting on the Nazis side in which after a few years all those guilty were pardoned and released.

 

[Karl Masks]

Don't worry Rishi, these poor fuckers have your back....just after they get back from the foodbank

 

[Cerv]

The Economist has published its first "seat spread" prediction, looking at the feasible low and high figures for the result on polling day. 326 required for a majority.

Labour 305-397
Con 82 (!!!)-266
LD 8-58
SNP 1-54
Reform 0-16

The SNP will get between 1 and 54 seats.
Out of the 59 in Scotland they're running in.

Insightful work from the Economist.

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

The SNP will get between 1 and 54 seats.
Out of the 59 in Scotland they're running in.

Insightful work from the Economist.

Just a long winded way of saying the Tories can't win. Though I note it leaves open the possibly of the Tories doing deals and getting back into power that way.

 

[GarveyLives]

The terrifying shape of things to come:

BBC apologises to Nigel Farage over impartiality breach after calling his language ‘inflammatory’

 

[Kaka Tim]

latest poll - first by this polling company since the election was called.

Survation
NEW: First Westminster voting intention from the campaign period.

23 point Labour lead, highest since November 2022.

LAB 47 (-1)
CON 24 (-3)
LD 11 (+3)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 8 (-)
SNP 3 (-)
OTH 4 (-)

F/w 24th - 27th May. Changes vs. 22nd May 2024

ETA - another poll out today -

Redfield Wilton
12,000 Sample.

Labour leads by 23%.

Westminster Voting Intention (25-27 May):

Labour 46% (+1)
Conservative 23% (–)
Reform UK 13% (+1)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 3% (+2)

Changes +/- 19 May

So its all pretty much as you were - tories fucked. Polls havent really moved in 6 months.

 

[Kaka Tim]

in other news - police have dropped investigation into Angela Raynor and the non returned library books/putting wrong bin out/not returning the super market trolley allegations.

 

[Wilf]

in other news - police have dropped investigation into Angela Raynor and the non returned library books/putting wrong bin out/not returning the super market trolley allegations.

It's funny, Rayner could stand again for Labour while this (laughable) investigation was going on. Diane Abbot can't stand for Labour even though her investigation finished months ago. Funny that.

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[PR1Berske]

ITV announces first head-to-head General Election debate -- Sunak vs Starmer -- Tuesday 4th June at 9pm, for an hour.

 

[brogdale]

ITV announces first head-to-head General Election debate -- Sunak vs Starmer -- Tuesday 4th June at 9pm, for an hour.

feeling sleepy already

 

[Serge Forward]

Two Tory twats talking twaddle.

say it fast 6 times

 

[weepiper]

ITV announces first head-to-head General Election debate -- Sunak vs Starmer -- Tuesday 4th June at 9pm, for an hour.

I'd rather spend an hour pulling my toenails out with rusty pliers.

 

[brogdale]

Politically, I think Starmer's campaign team are right to go for the disgrace of the vermin NHS early. I think it needs to be often, as well.

 

[ska invita]

Politically, I think Starmer's campaign team are right to go for the disgrace of the vermin NHS early. I think it needs to be often, as well.

View attachment 426446

....what about the Labour Health Secretary though

 

[brogdale]

....what about the Labour Health Secretary though

They'll be just as shit as the tories.

 

[ska invita]

They'll be just as shit as the tories.

What I mean is if they talk about the NHS then Wes Streeting will get more privatising airtime!

 

[Wilf]

ITV announces first head-to-head General Election debate -- Sunak vs Starmer -- Tuesday 4th June at 9pm, for an hour.

When worlds voids collide.

 

[danny la rouge]

ITV announces first head-to-head General Election debate -- Sunak vs Starmer -- Tuesday 4th June at 9pm, for an hour.

I think it’s dangerous to have two black holes in such close proximity!

 

[brogdale]

What I mean is if they talk about the NHS then Wes Streeting will get more privatising airtime!

Yes, I was regarding this in purely electoral strategy terms.

 

[SpookyFrank]

The SNP will get between 1 and 54 seats.
Out of the 59 in Scotland they're running in.

Insightful work from the Economist.

TBF this is absolutely the standard of testable prediction we've come to expect from the highly legitimate, definitely non-bullshit discipline of economics.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[JimW]

View attachment 426500

Smacks of carelessness.