The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Storm Fox]

I don't think it disenfranchises them. But I do think that every week from about mid June onwards, thousands of students (and their votes) move from their digs in cities (where chances are they'll pile up with all other Labour votes and make sod all difference) to their family homes (some of which of course are still in cities and safe labour seat, but many will be in more Tory areas) where their vote might make a difference.

I had read this ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote Which indicates it may be a problem.

Hundreds of thousands of students could be left unable to vote if the government calls an October general election, because there may not be enough time to register them, universities and student unions have warned.

 

[PTK]

.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Ah I see. An October specific problem for new students who may not be registered in their new cities yet. Hopefully a postal vote campaign will get a fair few of them voting in their old home seat.

 

[brogdale]

Useful, generic post.

 

[MickiQ]

I don't think it disenfranchises them. But I do think that every week from about mid June onwards, thousands of students (and their votes) move from their digs in cities (where chances are they'll pile up with all other Labour votes and make sod all difference) to their family homes (some of which of course are still in cities and safe labour seat, but many will be in more Tory areas) where their vote might make a difference.

That pretty much describes Student Q (aka Youngest) her digs are in a solid Labour seat where her vote isn't really relevant whereas Chez Q is in what was once a safe Tory seat but is now predicted to have a 77% chance of going Labour.
However their dastardly plan will come unstuck since she has registered for a postal vote which I will either forward or she will collect when she comes home.

Sevenbins is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, getting the Rwanda Bill through Parliament is a feather in his cap but it is just the latest step in his plan, he's fantasising if he thinks there will be any flights by July so this is probably his only chance to get any votes from it. Plus a massive (and at this stage inevitable) wipeout at the LE's are going to make his life difficult to say the least so an early election might be best.
On the other hand I think he is still hoping for his Falkands moment to happen so that he can hog the credit and win (don't think that's going to happen either)

We'll just have to see but I bet it's the last thing on his mind every night and the first thing every morning.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

dunno really. what's to be gained from this (or speculating about it)?

overshadowing the local elections which are likely to be bad for the vermin?

which in turn could lead to more revolting tory MP's and a (party) confidence vote - threatening to call a general election instead might shut them up. sunak doesn't care if he loses his current job, he's loaded and can make more money elsewhere. other tory MPs may be less keen on a general election any time soon.

doing it while the SNP is in a bit of a state?

getting the election in before some scandal we're not aware of yet comes out?

 

[brogdale]

Sevenbins is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, getting the Rwanda Bill through Parliament is a feather in his cap but it is just the latest step in his plan, he's fantasising if he thinks there will be any flights by July so this is probably his only chance to get any votes from it. Plus a massive (and at this stage inevitable) wipeout at the LE's are going to make his life difficult to say the least so an early election might be best.

With some of the sort of low-information sociopaths that make up the vermin core, maybe?

 

[Storm Fox]

With some of the sort of low-information sociopaths that make up the vermin core, maybe?

Most of them will have fucked off to Reform. So I really don't think it's the electoral win he thinks it is.

 

[A380]

Rumours are flying around Westminster an general election will be called in the next 48 hours.

I tend to be sceptical of this stuff but what’s raised ab eyebrow is hearing all minister meetings have been cancelled for the foreseeable future.

That usually signals a visit to the palace is in the offing…

And, TBF, your predictions have never been wrong before…

 

[Storm Fox]

So if he sees Chucky this afternoon, and depending whether today is day 1 and not day 0 the earliest day would be Thursday 30th May.

 

[moochedit]

I had read this ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote Which indicates it may be a problem.

I bet some students have left their passport at their parents house as well and don't realise until the last moment.

 

[editor]

*threads merged

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Why does everything nowadays have to exist in a megathread?

 

[danny la rouge]

Why does everything nowadays have to exist in a megathread?

Please ask this on the appropriate thread in the Feedback Forum.

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/why-dont-we-just-merge-every-thread-at-the-end-of-every-evening.220436/

 

[MickiQ]

With some of the sort of low-information sociopaths that make up the vermin core, maybe?

I think getting his bill through Parliament will appeal to more people than it will put off tbh. The sort of people who object to it wouldn't vote for Sevenbins anyway so they don't matter. It's aimed at keeping those Tory voters who are less radical and sufficiently pissed off with them to vote LD or even Labour. I agree with StormFox that this probably isn't the potential win that Sevenbins is hoping for though. Immigration (regular or otherwise) is probably in most people's top ten issues but not the number 1 issue for most of them. To those people to whom keeping out the brown people pre-empts all other concerns aren't likely to be voting anything other than Tory (or maybe Reform) anyway.

 

[emanymton]

Why does everything nowadays have to exist in a megathread?

You'd hate discord.

With good reason, it's shit

 

[cupid_stunt]

Why does everything nowadays have to exist in a megathread?

TBF, it's a bit daft having two threads on exactly the same subject, i.e. speculation about the next GE.

 

[Yossarian]

I think with something as big as a GE there's room for threads on more than one aspect, i.e rumours that it will be called in the next 48 hours

 

[Silas Loom]

Depends on the plausibility of the rumours.

 

[Chz]

I think with something as big as a GE there's room for threads on more than one aspect, i.e rumours that it will be called in the next 48 hours

I think the main thread is exactly where that belongs. Thread merging is relatively rare here, but this was absolutely the right call. Talking about the separate parties and their chances/manifestos/whatever, sure. We can have a Lab thread, a Con thread, a (lol) LD thread and that makes sense. But speculation about the timing of the general election itself absolutely belongs in the main thread.

The only other place the speculation would belong is if there were a general "What's new in the news today?" thread.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think with something as big as a GE there's room for threads on more than one aspect, i.e rumours that it will be called in the next 48 hours

Such a thread would last little more than 48 hours whichever way the rumours went, and so is best living the GE Rumours in General thread; such rumours being by nature, time sensitive.

 

[Silas Loom]

The only other place the speculation would belong is if there were a general "What's new in the news today?" thread.

Thank god that we do not. It would just be the Twitter feeds of the people who chunk their Facebook feeds onto the bandwidth thread.

 

[Yossarian]

Guess I'm a sucker for clickbait because I'm way more likely to open a new thread titled 'Rumours fly that election announcement is imminent' or whatever than check for updates in an old thread dozens of pages long

 

[MickiQ]

I bet some students have left their passport at their parents house as well and don't realise until the last moment.

Driving licences are good as well but the identity documents list is clearly rigged in favour of older people, Youngest Q has more than once passed pithy comment upon the fact that my pensioners bus pass is valid as a form of voting id but her student railcard is not

 

[Chz]

Guess I'm a sucker for clickbait because I'm way more likely to open a new thread titled 'Rumours fly that election announcement is imminent' or whatever than check for updates in an old thread dozens of pages long

The true clickbait sufferer just clicks on everything in the "Alerts" list and reads every useless bit of data.

 

[danny la rouge]

The true clickbait sufferer just clicks on everything in the "Alerts" list and reads every useless bit of data.

 

[brogdale]

I think getting his bill through Parliament will appeal to more people than it will put off tbh. The sort of people who object to it wouldn't vote for Sevenbins anyway so they don't matter. It's aimed at keeping those Tory voters who are less radical and sufficiently pissed off with them to vote LD or even Labour. I agree with StormFox that this probably isn't the potential win that Sevenbins is hoping for though. Immigration (regular or otherwise) is probably in most people's top ten issues but not the number 1 issue for most of them. To those people to whom keeping out the brown people pre-empts all other concerns aren't likely to be voting anything other than Tory (or maybe Reform) anyway.

The YG polling from a couple of days ago does not suggest that the passage of the bill will be an unalloyed electoral boon, tbh...



Even before it fails, the policy idea has only 41% support and, more remarkably, only 69 % of 2019 vermin voters support the plan, with only 40% believing the flights will ever take off and just 27% thinking that would represent good value for money.

Once it becomes clear that either the flights will never take off or that a few do and the "small boats" keep coming, those polling %s will likely crash.

 

[MickiQ]

The YG polling from a couple of days ago does not suggest that the passage of the bill will be an unalloyed electoral boon, tbh...

View attachment 422075

Even before it fails, the policy idea has only 41% support and, more remarkably, only 69 % of 2019 vermin voters support the plan, with only 40% believing the flights will ever take off and just 27% thinking that would represent good value for money.

Once it becomes clear that either the flights will never take off or that a few do and the "small boats" keep coming, those polling %s will likely crash.

That's pretty much what I said but with numbers, getting it through Parliament is just the first step, it will get challenged in the courts generally by charities opposed to it. If they win then it's back to Westminster for yet more tweaking, even if they lose it will waste even more of what little time there is left. And even after that each individual deportee can appeal the decision to deport them.
That's another possible reason for him going to the polls before even those who think it's a good idea realise they've been sold a dud.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

You'd hate discord.

With good reason, it's shit

Discord is amazing. Probably because I only converse with one person on it.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Guess I'm a sucker for clickbait because I'm way more likely to open a new thread titled 'Rumours fly that election announcement is imminent' or whatever than check for updates in an old thread dozens of pages long

You know, like how it used to be?