The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Elpenor]

Yep, founder James Melville, a media commentator who does not farm but says he grew up on a family farm in Fife, sits on the board of Together, which runs campaigns against Covid-19 lockdowns and the ULEZ.

Got to give the PM credit here for his insight

Rishi Sunak:
On too many occasions recently, our streets have been hijacked by small groups…

 

[teuchter]

Look at this insanity.

 

[The39thStep]

Look at this insanity.

Jesus . Even Gotham City only had the third highest crime rate of all the DC Comic cities.

 

[Bingoman]

Robert Halfon resigns as skills minister

Former education committee chair will also stand down as an MP at the election

schoolsweek.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Robert Halfon resigns as skills minister

Former education committee chair will also stand down as an MP at the election

schoolsweek.co.uk

Both him and James Heappey - Armed Forces Minster, have announced they'll not be standing at the next GE.

 

[brogdale]

Rats; ship

 

[Elpenor]

Today is the deadline for calling an election to coincide with the scheduled May elections

 

[skyscraper101]

Labour has '99% chance' of general election victory, says Prof John Curtice

Professor Sir John Curtice delivered the dire warning to Rishi Sunak as the Conservatives continue to languish behind Keir Starmer's Labour party in the polls

www.mirror.co.uk

Labour have a 99% chance of winning according to John Cutice

 

[Karl Masks]

99 Red Loons...

 

[ska invita]

 

[Elpenor]

This feels like the best thread

Am out for a friends birthday, one of the other guests works for a backbench Tory MP (not saying which one as it’s not fair). He obviously isn’t sharing too much, and I wouldn’t expect him too - and tbh he’s quite good at evading questions. Despite being a Tory he’s not a total headbanger and can see pragmatism despite clear ideological differences to me. Definitely a political wonk.

Anyway he says they’d be ecstatic with sub 100 Labour majority. For next leader FWIW he backs Priti or Penny (on strong local constituency association manoeuvres)

 

[bluescreen]

. Despite being a Tory he’s not a total headbanger and can see pragmatism despite clear ideological differences to me. Definitely a political wonk.

[...]For next leader FWIW he backs Priti or Penny (on strong local constituency association manoeuvres)

TBH I'm finding it hard to reconcile the two arms of your argument here. Not a total headbanger yet backs Priti or Penny? Or do you mean he doesn't personally support, but bets one or the other of them would win?
Tories, what are they like.

 

[The39thStep]

This feels like the best thread

Am out for a friends birthday, one of the other guests works for a backbench Tory MP (not saying which one as it’s not fair). He obviously isn’t sharing too much, and I wouldn’t expect him too - and tbh he’s quite good at evading questions. Despite being a Tory he’s not a total headbanger and can see pragmatism despite clear ideological differences to me. Definitely a political wonk.

Anyway he says they’d be ecstatic with sub 100 Labour majority. For next leader FWIW he backs Priti or Penny (on strong local constituency association manoeuvres)

I thnk that makes some sense . I don't think that there will be a coup against Sunak tbh before the GE however if there was Mordant should have the sense to stay out of it and wait for the next opportunity after the GE.

 

[Elpenor]

TBH I'm finding it hard to reconcile the two arms of your argument here. Not a total headbanger yet backs Priti or Penny? Or do you mean he doesn't personally support, but bets one or the other of them would win?
Tories, what are they like.

Who he thinks not who he wants (he was quite clear to be vague on this, giving his informed view not personal opinion, supposedly wants to be a MP in the future)

 

[Elpenor]

I thnk that makes some sense . I don't think that there will be a coup against Sunak tbh before the GE however if there was Mordant should have the sense to stay out of it and wait for the next opportunity after the GE.

He also said his boss has turned down junior minister job offers as he has felt better to get the position on the bounce back up not at the nadir

 

[Funky_monks]

I had a look on their website and couldn't work out where this ParlGov survey was supposed to be from (they seem to focus just on election outcomes, though do have a function for assessing parties' positions on the political compass), but did find a reference to a survey of 15 Western nations in this study, which also references ParlGov, seems to be covering the same subject matter and is based on analysing the 2016 European Social Survey (pdf) data. I'm wondering if he got his reference muddled.

Normally in the online newspapers, when they make claims like this (or reference scientific studies), they make the source material a clickable link. The fact that he didn't suggest he's just made it up, or distorted wildly.

 

[Funky_monks]

The tories, including Sunak, jumped right on board with the Welsh farmers at their protest!

Rishi Sunak backs protesting farmers at Welsh Conservative conference

The prime minister tells farmers "we've got your back" at the Welsh Conservative conference.

www.bbc.co.uk

also...

Farmers fear support of those with 'hidden agendas'

Welsh farmers are concerned their recent protests are being "used" to further "other agendas".

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes, I think the "No Farmers, No Food" Bloke is some far right antivax loon who's using it to generate politcal capital.

 

[Funky_monks]

Yep, founder James Melville, a media commentator who does not farm but says he grew up on a family farm in Fife, sits on the board of Together, which runs campaigns against Covid-19 lockdowns and the ULEZ.

Beat me to it, sorry.

 

[belboid]

Anyway he says they’d be ecstatic with sub 100 Labour majority. For next leader FWIW he backs Priti or Penny (on strong local constituency association manoeuvres)

Shame for him that Penny probably won't be an MP by then. Shame for the rest of us that Patel will be.

 

[Elpenor]

Shame for him that Penny probably won't be an MP by then. Shame for the rest of us that Patel will be.

They won’t be in any form of power I’m sure besides I reckon a clean skin will be sought

 

[Humberto]

If they had any sense it'd be Gove.

 

[belboid]

They won’t be in any form of power I’m sure besides I reckon a clean skin will be sought

bless.

odds on, they'll be a rump of MP's. And they're not as tightly controlled as Labour MP's are, so it could go anyway. If the party faithful get a choice, they'll go with the loon option.

 

[belboid]

If they had any sense it'd be Gove.

The poll shows Mr Gove’s having just a 3 per cent majority over his rival.

Apparently

 

[Elpenor]

bless.

odds on, they'll be a rump of MP's. And they're not as tightly controlled as Labour MP's are, so it could go anyway. If the party faithful get a choice, they'll go with the loon option.

Well I have no idea. It was interesting to me to talk to someone who knows more than me about that world even if he probably isn’t to be trusted!

 

[belboid]

Well I have no idea. It was interesting to me to talk to someone who knows more than me about that world even if he probably isn’t to be trusted!

Hey, neither do I. But I dont think anyone can really predict what is going to happen if they go down to 100 seats. Doesn't matter how connected they are.

 

[Elpenor]

Hey, neither do I. But I dont think anyone can really predict what is going to happen if they go down to 100 seats. Doesn't matter how connected they are.

he reckoned anything better than 1997 was a good result; we will see

 

[brogdale]

Rat-boy's response to this radio interview this morning will do nothing to dispel the rumours that No.10 is gearing up for a July election...

 

[cupid_stunt]

This feels like the best thread

Am out for a friends birthday, one of the other guests works for a backbench Tory MP (not saying which one as it’s not fair). He obviously isn’t sharing too much, and I wouldn’t expect him too - and tbh he’s quite good at evading questions. Despite being a Tory he’s not a total headbanger and can see pragmatism despite clear ideological differences to me. Definitely a political wonk.

Anyway he says they’d be ecstatic with sub 100 Labour majority. For next leader FWIW he backs Priti or Penny (on strong local constituency association manoeuvres)

I am not surprised by that, considering the latest Survation MRP poll, on a sample of over 15,000 voters, gives them just 98 seats, against 468 for Labour, making it worst than 1997 when they won 165 seats.

Survation’s latest MRP analysis of a poll of 15,029 residents in Great Britain conducted on behalf of Best for Britain, and published last night in The Times, paints a worrying picture for the Conservatives, putting them on 98 seats, with Labour on 468 seats. Here are three things that we can learn from it, and three things that we can’t.​

What We Can Learn From Our Latest MRP (and what we can't) | Survation

Survation’s latest MRP analysis of a poll of 15,029 residents in Great Britain conducted on behalf of Best for Britain, and published last night in...

www.survation.com

 

[Voley]

I am not surprised by that, considering the latest Survation MRP poll, on a sample of over 15,000 voters, gives them just 98 seats, against 468 for Labour, making it worst than 1997 when they won 165 seats.

What We Can Learn From Our Latest MRP (and what we can't) | Survation

Survation’s latest MRP analysis of a poll of 15,029 residents in Great Britain conducted on behalf of Best for Britain, and published last night in...

www.survation.com

Just 90 Con seats according to the Electoral Calculus email I had this morning.

Prediction: Con 90, Lab 459, Lib Dem 49, SNP 28, Labour majority of 268

General Election Prediction

 

[skyscraper101]

Breaking news from the YouGov Mega Poll. The good news is it's a Tory 'wipeout'

Labour forecast to win landslide of over 400 seats, as YouGov poll predicts Tory wipeout at election

Labour are forecast to win a majority of 154 in a new poll conducted by YouGov - almost double the number the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.

news.sky.com

If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Tories than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair's New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.

A [Labour] majority of 154 seats would also be double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.

Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Ian Duncan Smith.

^^ I'll probably stay up all night for this one. Shapps, Hunt, Duncan Smith and Mordaunt all getting binned off would be box office viewing.