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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

I'd be interested in seeing an explanation as to why the Survation MRP poll says 99 Tory seats, and why the YouGov MRP poll says 150 - anyone got any views?

(I much prefer the 99 by the way....)
This is the difficulty of a probabilistic model. A lot of these seats are being predicted at less than 2% gap between first and second. What you really need are the confidence intervals for the aggregate result

There’s also a timing difference. Things move fast during an election year.
 
Sure, to be clear this isn't how I see myself.

More of an assessment that there is a cohort of people out there who will vote and they'll vote Green because they see themselves as centrist, have voted for all of the other three parties (or more if you live in Wales or Scotland)and now see the Greens as the only remaining option.
Well the people I know who's contemplating voting Green are certainly not centrist and certainly haven't voted for all the other three parties.
 
Sure, to be clear this isn't how I see myself.

More of an assessment that there is a cohort of people out there who will vote and they'll vote Green because they see themselves as centrist, have voted for all of the other three parties (or more if you live in Wales or Scotland)and now see the Greens as the only remaining option.

The Green Party is certainly not centrist, they are very much to the left of the current Labour Party.

I had mate come down from Stoke last year to attend the Green Party Conference in Brighton, he defected from years of Labour membership after Corbyn was kicked out, and joined them instead. He wanted to stay at my place, offering to pay for me to go along as a guest, being a lot cheaper than booking a hotel. Of course, he could have stayed here for free anyway, but he insisted I should go along as it would be interesting, so I craved in, and went.

It was certainly, err, 'interesting', no wonder they made such a mess of running Brighton council, it's a chaotic party, personally I wouldn't trust them to run a bath, and my mate was so shocked, that he cancelled his membership.

What I did learn is at least they are realistic about winning Westminster seats, and that's why they are only targeting four seats, which is where I got the figure of 'in all bar 4 seats at most', personally I think they have an uphill struggle to hold their Brighton seat, as Caroline Lucas isn't standing again, and I'll be surprised if they win any of the their other three target seats. A vote for the Greens under the first past the post system used for Westminster elections is basically just a protest vote, and if you are trying to unseat a local Tory MP, it's sadly a wasted vote.

And, I say this as someone that has voted for them in recent GEs, because I had moved to a safe Tory seat, and wanted to give them encouragement, and as failed attempts to prevent them losing their deposits. Now it looks likely Labour will win here, I'll holding my nose, and voting for them.
 
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The Green Party is certainly not centrist, they are very much to the left of the current Labour Party.

I had mate come down from Stoke last year to attend the Green Party Conference in Brighton, he defected from years of Labour membership after Corbyn was kicked out, and joined them instead. He wanted to stay at my place, offering to pay for me to go along as a guest, being a lot cheaper than booking a hotel. Of course, he could have stayed here for free anyway, but he insisted I should go along as it would be interesting, so I craved in, and went.

It was certainly, err, 'interesting', no wonder they made such a mess of running Brighton council, it's a chaotic party, personally I wouldn't trust them to run a bath, and my mate was so shocked, that he cancelled his membership.

What I did learn is at least they are realistic about winning Westminster seats, and that's why they are only targeting four seats, which is where I got the figure of 'in all bar 4 seats at most', personally I think they have an uphill struggle to hold their Brighton seat, as Caroline Lucas isn't standing again, and I'll be surprised if they win any of the their other three target seats. A vote for the Greens under the first past the post system used for Westminster elections is basically just a protest vote, and if you are trying to unseat a local Tory MP, it's sadly a wasted vote.

And, I say this as someone that has voted for them in recent GEs, because I had moved to a safe Tory seat, and wanted to give them encouragement, and as failed attempts to prevent them losing their deposits. Now it looks likely Labour will win here, I'll holding my nose, and voting for them.
What this and some of the other posts above are telling me is that there's a huge political vaccum for a genuine broad-based left of centre party.
 
In addition to employing scab labour, the Green Party has provided confidence and support for Tories, it's moved to a pro-NATO position, in it's first majority council it has backed a standard centrist political line. One of their current co-leaders is a former chief exec and CEO. A former leader worked for the Tories, the party was willing to have an electoral pact with the LibDems.

It is another liberal party, and to be fair it has not pretended to be anything else.
 
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In addition to employing scab labour, the Green Party has provided confidence and support for Tories, it's moved to a pro-NATO position, in it's first majority council it as backed a standard centrist political line. On of their current co-leaders is a former chief exec and CEO. A former leader worked for the Tories, the party was willing to have an electoral pact with the LibDems.

It is another liberal party, and to be fair it has not pretended to be anything else.
Believe the Scottish Greens are a separate party but yeah, sure they're shit anyway.
 
The Green Party is certainly not centrist, they are very much to the left of the current Labour Party.

I had mate come down from Stoke last year to attend the Green Party Conference in Brighton, he defected from years of Labour membership after Corbyn was kicked out, and joined them instead. He wanted to stay at my place, offering to pay for me to go along as a guest, being a lot cheaper than booking a hotel. Of course, he could have stayed here for free anyway, but he insisted I should go along as it would be interesting, so I craved in, and went.

It was certainly, err, 'interesting', no wonder they made such a mess of running Brighton council, it's a chaotic party, personally I wouldn't trust them to run a bath, and my mate was so shocked, that he cancelled his membership.

What I did learn is at least they are realistic about winning Westminster seats, and that's why they are only targeting four seats, which is where I got the figure of 'in all bar 4 seats at most', personally I think they have an uphill struggle to hold their Brighton seat, as Caroline Lucas isn't standing again, and I'll be surprised if they win any of the their other three target seats. A vote for the Greens under the first past the post system used for Westminster elections is basically just a protest vote, and if you are trying to unseat a local Tory MP, it's sadly a wasted vote.

And, I say this as someone that has voted for them in recent GEs, because I had moved to a safe Tory seat, and wanted to give them encouragement, and as failed attempts to prevent them losing their deposits. Now it looks likely Labour will win here, I'll holding my nose, and voting for them.

Sure I've voted Green too and know a few.

But most people don't have a sophisticated understanding of what the smaller parties are actually like, especially if they don't live in an area with organised Greens.

Which is fine? Plenty of parties or causes get votes from people who don't really know anything about them.
 
In addition to employing scab labour, the Green Party has provided confidence and support for Tories, it's moved to a pro-NATO position, in it's first majority council it has backed a standard centrist political line. One of their current co-leaders is a former chief exec and CEO. A former leader worked for the Tories, the party was willing to have an electoral pact with the LibDems.

It is another liberal party, and to be fair it has not pretended to be anything else.

I am not going to address anything they have done, or are doing, in local councils, because all parties can act very differently at council level, due to various local issues, compared to what they do/would do in Westminster, so I'll stick with the national party items, as this is a thread about the GE.

In March 2023, because of Russia's illegal war, they took a common sense decision and abandoned their opposition to NATO. However, it's not as straight forward as that, their policy is to support reform of NATO such as guaranteeing a "no first use" policy on nuclear weapons, that NATO commits to upholding human rights, and that the organisation only acts in defence of member states.

He wasn't in charge of big evil PLCs, he was CE of Centre for Alternative Technology, a small charity running an eco-centre in Wales dedicated to demonstrating and teaching sustainable development, and later CEO of the small MCS Charitable Foundation, involved driving innovation to accelerate the use of carbon free energy in the, etc.

I've no idea which former leader had worked for the Tories, at what age, nor in what position, but that would seem irrelevant to the GP's current leadership and policies.
Under the FPTP system, there is logic in smaller parties forming electoral pacts, to beat one of the major parties at national, and indeed local levels. (As a side note Labour carried on taking loads of Tory seats in the Worthing council elections last year, taking around 50% of the vote in each, but in one ward where the Greens were in 2nd position, they only had a paper candidate with bugger all campaigning, allowing the Greens to take it with over 50% of the vote).

Instead of binging up a few minor things, that are basically irrelevant, in order to suggest they are a liberal/centrist party, you really do need to look at their actual policies overall, or their manifesto for the next GE, when it is released.

A brief summary from their 2019 manifesto -
To overhaul the UK's current voting system and rebalance government power by lowering the voting age from 18 to 16 and redefining the jurisdiction of local governments; the "green quality of life guarantee", which addressed social issues such as housing, the NHS, education, countryside conservation, discrimination, crime, drug reform, animal rights, and the implementation of a universal basic income; and the "new deal for tax and spend", which outlined the party's economic policies such as simplifying income tax, increasing corporation tax to make big businesses pay their fair share, supporting small business, and ending wasteful spending
 
To base politics on vague, statements in manifesto's rather than the actual actions and practice of groups is absurd. The Labour Party still claims it is a democratic socialist party, but only a fool would agree with that. In fact it's the exact sort of silly nonsense that had fools vote for Stamer.

Regardless, in fact everything you have posted, including that paragraph from their manifesto reiterates the essentially liberal nature of the party. Supporting the EU and NATO, promoting businesses, these are good examples of the Green's liberal politics. The Greens, whether in England and Wales or Scotland, are not a Social Democratic Party.
 
I reckon the Lib Dems will do well from tactical voting in hitherto safe Tory seats where they've traditionally come second and people want anyone but Tory.
That's pretty much the situation here in St Ives ward, although we're a marginal, not a safe Tory seat. Predicted to go back Lib Dem by a big margin at the next election.

Which still leaves my anti-Tory Labour vote fairly pointless here but I'll be glad to see the back of Derek Thomas, the utterly useless Tory bloke we've currently got.

I did a vote swap last time around. Mate of mine in Wales voted Labour for me in Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin got in) and I voted LibDem for him here (Andrew George didn’t). Might try something similar this time.
 
In addition to employing scab labour, the Green Party has provided confidence and support for Tories, it's moved to a pro-NATO position, in it's first majority council it has backed a standard centrist political line. One of their current co-leaders is a former chief exec and CEO. A former leader worked for the Tories, the party was willing to have an electoral pact with the LibDems.

It is another liberal party, and to be fair it has not pretended to be anything else.
They did a ‘rainbow coalition’ in Leeds a while back with Tories and Lib Dems, one of the few times the city wasn’t Labour controlled, and it was piss poor. Stopped me from considering voting for them, empowering tories is a red line. Saying that, I have a friend there who was a Labour councillor (a decent one, community activist sort) and they left the Labour Party at the last local elections due to the direction of the party and ran as a green in their seat, running Labour pretty close. I’d vote for her without hesitation.
 
Is this the thread where we slag off the Green Party?

I don't doubt there are some decent people involved, but they just can't shake off that middle-class liberal vibe. My experience of two Green councillors in my part of the world isn't great either: one's idea of green issues appears to be of the NIMBY busybody school and the other is another ex-Labour Corbynite who can't differentiate between supporting the Palestinian people and antisemitic conspiraloonery. He also appears to have very little grasp of actual green issues and is mainly involved in local politics to feed his delusional ego.

In conclusion: A Bunch of Wankers. Mostly.
 
No idea of this is the cutting edge of political forecasting, but drinking around Bristol then other day - Montpellier, Redland, Clifton, Westbury etc.. the only 'vote for...' signs in people's gardens were for the Greens.
 
No idea of this is the cutting edge of political forecasting, but drinking around Bristol then other day - Montpellier, Redland, Clifton, Westbury etc.. the only 'vote for...' signs in people's gardens were for the Greens.
various polls have a green win in Central. All but one of the wards have green councillors already. Back into the sea with Thangam Debboniare.
 
I’m considering voting for the Greens. Not because I like either the party or the people representing it, but because it registers a vote against the big three parties about 0.00001% better than voting spunking cock does.
 
I’m considering voting for the Greens. Not because I like either the party or the people representing it, but because it registers a vote against the big three parties about 0.00001% better than voting spunking cock does.
"Vote Green because we're not Spunking Cock" perhaps not the best rallying call. I think the Greens will probably do well in terms of votes period but fail to win any seats, without Lucas I don't think they will keep Brighton. But happy to be proven wrong.
I'm in two minds about the Greens myself, it's clear they're a disorganised shower who couldn't run a whelk stall let alone a country but it's good that they get some support to encourage the parties that will get actual seats to try competing for Green votes by stealing some of their more rational policies.
 
The most interest I can muster for the Green targets is statistical. But it is interesting that the swing needed for them to lose Brighton Pavilion to Labour is almost the same as the swing needed for them to win Bristol Central (ex Bristol West) from Labour. And we're talking big numbers.

I don't believe both can happen. General Elections aren't that localized that the Greens can drop a massive swing in one place but get it back in another 150 miles away.

I don't think they'll win Bristol. They may just hang on in Brighton.

/end of interest in Green Party politics.
 
I might vote Green for similar reasons, and because it's a little tick in a 'maybe we should think about the environment at least a bit' box (regardless of what their failings might be in that area). Or I might not bother to vote tbh.
 
No idea of this is the cutting edge of political forecasting, but drinking around Bristol then other day - Montpellier, Redland, Clifton, Westbury etc.. the only 'vote for...' signs in people's gardens were for the Greens.

It's one of their four target seats, every penny the national party can afford is being focused on these four areas, I sat in on the session when this was all presented to the membership*.

The prediction is they will win it, rather than Labour, mainly based on how well they did in the council elections, but as everyone knows a lot of people tend to vote very differently in local elections, so I am not convinced, although I hope they do. The prediction is they will hold onto Brighton Pavilion, despite Lucas not standing, again I am not convinced, despite Siân Berry being an excellent replacement candidate, although I hope they do.

I can't remember their thinking behind the other 2 seats, the yawn factor had bubbled up, because it looks like they are wasting their time and money, in Waveney Valley it looks like Labour will take it from the Tories, and in North Herefordshire it'll be a Tory hold.

Denyer told the Guardian the party would be “laser-focused on those four target constituencies” – Brighton Pavilion; the newly created seat of Bristol Central, where Denyer is standing; Waveney Valley, another new seat across parts of Norfolk and Suffolk, where Ramsay is standing; and North Herefordshire, where Ellie Chowns is standing.


* Forgot to mention, whilst my mate paid for me to attend the GP conference as a guest, when I realised I would be locked out of members sessions, I joined a few days before, then cancelled the monthly DD before they had processed the first payment. :oops: :D
 
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I don't have any axe to grind on behalf of the Green Party, but this article suggests they are way to the left of their three main rivals on at least one issue

Greens demand more affordable housing at local election campaign launch


The Greens have kicked off their local election campaign with a demand for more affordable homes. They said the country was facing an "acute housing crisis", both of supply "but also a crisis of housing quality". Ms Denyer, who is a member of Bristol City Council, said: "We desperately need a massive increase in the supply of affordable social housing. I hear regularly from people who have been living in unacceptable conditions, crying out for a secure home or struggling to make ends meet because their rents are through the roof."
The Green Party of England and Wales is calling for more funding to help councils build homes and say they would introduce rent controls in areas where prices are high. They also highlighted a long-standing Green policy to abolish the right for tenants to buy their social home, introduced under Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher. Councils and housing associations should also be given first dibs on the resale of homes bought under the Right to Buy scheme, and on other properties, such as those left empty for an unacceptably long time, the party says.
 
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