The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Petcha]

35% isn't exactly a resounding mandate. very clever campaigning clearly, targeting the right seats.

 

[Silas Loom]

Someone tell Starmer to let the cat in ffs

View attachment 432074

Wrong cat. That’s not Larry.

 

[Silas Loom]

Hopefully. Though the right sort of trouble.

There’s no right sort.

 

[ouirdeaux]

Strictly speaking, no cat is ever the wrong cat.

 

[Petcha]

I'd be interested to see a model if we did have PR here. I assume Reform would have a lot more than 4 seats

 

[Silas Loom]

Strictly speaking, no cat is ever the wrong cat.

Aren’t they notoriously territorial?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Didn't the Brexit party stand aside in 2019 in a lot of seats to help the Tories against Corbyn?

Just reinforces the fact that Reform and the SNP collapse won it for Starmer.

It's also the fact that Brexit is safely enough in the past that they could just about get away with ignoring it entirely. If you compare now to the circumstances in 2019 there's no way that a Starmer type leader would have been able to square that circle is there. They'd have been absolutely shredded for sure.

 

[Wilf]

Yes, because all of that vote efficiency and unspoken coalition stuff requires a Labour leader who is broadly acceptable to the majority.

So... I THINK you are saying people didn't vote Labour because they were positive about Starmer. Okay...

 

[Silas Loom]

I'd be interested to see a model if we did have PR here. I assume Reform would have a lot more than 4 seats

There are dozens of types of PR. You could get any outcome you wanted, really, depending on the model adopted.

 

[Petcha]

There are dozens of types of PR. You could get any outcome you wanted, really, depending on the model adopted.

Well, the German model. The one NZ based its system on...

 

[Silas Loom]

So... I THINK you are saying people didn't vote Labour because they were positive about Starmer. Okay...

Broadly, yes. LD votes in particular.

 

[moochedit]

I'd be interested to see a model if we did have PR here. I assume Reform would have a lot more than 4 seats

Depends on exact system but i make it 92 or 93....

 

[Wilf]

It's also the fact that Brexit is safely enough in the past that they could just about get away with ignoring it entirely. If you compare now to the circumstances in 2019 there's no way that a Starmer type leader would have been able to square that circle is there. They'd have been absolutely shredded for sure.

And Starmer was of course Labour's 2019 Brexit .... mastermind

 

[littlebabyjesus]

35% isn't exactly a resounding mandate. very clever campaigning clearly, targeting the right seats.

Under 34%.

You give them too much credit, I think. The tories were so unpopular, there was no way they could win. Labour lost more voters than they gained compared to 2019 in terms of absolute numbers. Lost more than 2 million voters compared to 2017. The right wing vote was significantly larger than the Labour vote, but it was split, so Labour romped home. But was that by calculation and cleverness? Nah. It was by luck. They played an unlosable hand very badly.

 

[Plumdaff]

It's also the fact that Brexit is safely enough in the past that they could just about get away with ignoring it entirely. If you compare now to the circumstances in 2019 there's no way that a Starmer type leader would have been able to square that circle is there. They'd have been absolutely shredded for sure.

Starmer was the Starmer type leader who came up with the disastrous Brexit fudge

Wilf great minds

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The idea that they've somehow calculated exactly the amount they need and deliberately gone out to get that and not more through clever tactics is just laughable.

 

[Silas Loom]

412 seats. Looks like the right tactics to me, and I’m not enchanted at all by their policy offer.

 

[Petcha]

Deoends on exact system but 12.4% of 650 seats is about 80 or 81

hang on they got 14.3% One second

It's more complicated than just the percentage of the national vote right? it would be impossible to model it as, if I understand it correctly, the German model involves you voting for a local candidate but allows you to vote for the party nationally? Ie, 2 votes..?

 

[Elpenor]

Didn't the Brexit party stand aside in 2019 in a lot of seats to help the Tories against Corbyn?

Just reinforces the fact that Reform and the SNP collapse won it for Starmer.

Yes - eg in my seat in 2019, 17k majority for Tory over Lib Dem, the Brexit party stood aside as the Tory was a Brexiter.

In 2024 though, reform get 8.5k votes, Lib Dems gain 3k votes, Tory loses a lot of votes and so Lib Dem win the seat

 

[Plumdaff]

412 seats. Looks like the right tactics to me, and I’m not enchanted at all by their policy offer.

Tactics, or being very fortunate in terms of circumstances. I'll give you that Starmer is non threatening enough to have operated on easy mode from legacy media so far, but let's see how the master tactician manages in government.

 

[moochedit]

It's more complicated than just the percentage of the national vote right? it would be impossible to model it as, if I understand it correctly, the German model involves you voting for a local candidate but allows you to vote for the party nationally? Ie, 2 votes..?

I amended that post above as i got the vote share wrong. If you used a party list with whole country as one constituency then it would be about 90 ish but in practice it would depend on exact pr system used. German is a mix of local mps and national list (and i think scotland is simalar) but i don't know what difference that would make.

 

[Wilf]

There’s no right sort.

Ha ha, I misread that. I thought you meant there's no right sort of CAT! Anyway keep the like...

 

[Monte]

We had a referendum on PR in 2011.
There was a resounding no. 67.9%

 

[Silas Loom]

Ha ha, I misread that. I thought you meant there's no right sort of CAT! Anyway keep the like...

That too!

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/the-1771-encyclopaedia-brittanica-on-cats.158451/

 

[Wilf]

They played an unlosable hand very badly.

This.

Pedantic edit: Labour actually played their safety first, no risks, no deep engagement campaign extremely well. A tight ship. What was wrong was everything about Starmer's inversion of Corbynism, shedding of the unions, weaponisation of anti semitism and the rest. Following on from that, the only thing that could win here was a grey void of a party, business friendly and unable to meet the rise of populism..

 

[Petcha]

I amended that post above as i got the vote share wrong. If you used a party list with whole country as one constituency then it would be about 90 ish but in practice it would depend on exact pr system used. German is a mix of local mps and national list (and i think scotland is simalar) but i don't know what difference that would make.

Objectively then, Reform can feel a bit hard done by really. Don't get me wrong I definitely do not want them to have any seats at all, but democratically our system is pretty fucked. Again, objectively.

 

[Knotted]

BBC summary here

Rishi Sunak accepts responsibility for historic Tory defeat

In a speech outside Number 10, Mr Sunak said he would step down as party leader once arrangements for a successor are in place.

www.bbc.co.uk

Linked to just for how studiously they are ignoring the Gaza independents (I haven't got a better term for them, there's surely more to them than Gaza). They've unseated Jonathan Ashworth and Thangham Debonaire, surely a bigger story than how well Reform lost in Liz Truss's seat.

 

[Silas Loom]

Objectively then, Reform can feel a bit hard done by really. Don't get me wrong I definitely do not want them to have any seats at all, but democratically our system is pretty fucked. Again, objectively.

Is right wing Twitter gloating about their four seats or ranting about the democratic deficit and Reform’s stolen landslide? Anyone braved the cesspit yet?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

BBC summary here

Rishi Sunak accepts responsibility for historic Tory defeat

In a speech outside Number 10, Mr Sunak said he would step down as party leader once arrangements for a successor are in place.

www.bbc.co.uk

Linked to just for how studiously they are ignoring the Gaza independents (I haven't got a better term for them, there's surely more to them than Gaza). They've unseated Jonathan Ashworth and Thangham Debonaire, surely a bigger story than how well Reform lost in Liz Truss's seat.

They won four and ran some others close. Labour ignore this at their peril, imo. It's not an issue that is going away any time soon.

tbh a bit with Blair and Iraq, it's probably too late to win back a certain section of a certain generation. They might not have needed them this time round. But who knows in the future?

 

[Lord Camomile]

Efficient vote distribution and improved polling accuracy means that people in safe Tory votes seeking a Lab government are happy to vote either LD or Lab, while people in safe Labour seats feel comfortable with risk-free protest votes for nonsense candidates and minor parties. There aren’t any electoral rewards for vote share, so why should Labour chase it?

I know this isn't necessarily something you're defending, but "there's no electoral rewards from getting more people to vote for you" is one of many damning sentiments for FPTP.

Meanwhile, "people who feel they don't have to vote Labour don't vote Labour" is fairly damning for Labour.