The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[cupid_stunt]

I've had a fourth Rosie Wrighting 4 Lab leaflet now, this one came in an envelope, I'm deffo getting the 4th july knock from the GOTV labour team. They really must think they've got a chance at unseating old Hollobone, whose held it forever, the last guy was a sawford senior, old school labour many many years ago. His son is now lab/co-op* and in local politics

*the ghost of a party haunting the internal labour party. De jure its own thing, de facto the last lingering remnants of Robert Owens. At least that how it seems to me. Weirdly the lab/co-op people you see talking on ze internet tend to come off as v reactionary. Perhaps thats just internet belligerence but if its not the story of what happened to the co-op as a party would be worth a read, to me. Essays/books if you have them pls, labour history nerds

On a minor note ashworth appeared on the box this morning and both bro (stayed over) and myself said 'fuck off' at exactly the same time as I reached for the mouse to go for songs. He doesn't even know who ashworth is. Or didn't, now he know more than he strictly ever needs to and has not thanked me for it.

The electoral calculus site predicts there's a 89% chance of Labour taking Kettering.

 

[Orang Utan]

Got an SDP leaflet. Didn’t read it as it went straight into the recycling. Other residents tore up theirs and littered the atrium, which I both approve of and disapprove of.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The electoral calculus site predicts there's a 89% chance of Labour taking Kettering.

Wow. That thing only gives Sunak a 50% chance.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wow. That thing only gives Sunak a 50% chance.

I know, wouldn't it be bloody funny if he loses.

Just a bit more tactical voting and it could happen.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't think they necessarily have a red line over some form of state intervention/ nationalisation in exceptional circumstances, after all they have a half hearted pledge to bring some elements of the railways nearer in house , although given what you say that may not happen. The Tories themselves 'nationalised' Transpennine Express etc and the Blair govt 'nationalised ' Northern Rock , so state intervention cannot be ruled out.

In addition, state intervention is not necessarily a good thing.
After all Neo-liberalism requires state intervention, there was a huge amount of state intervention from the Johnson government in the COVID response, PFI is state intervention, state intervention was required to marketise the education, health, care, etc sectors.

I can see state intervention, even brining ownership of certain providers back under government control, from a Starmer government. But the crucial part is that while such interventions are made under the framework of liberalism they will result in further marketisation, and more transfer of wealth upwards.

 

[Winot]

New Tory attack ad from Twittet:

 

[two sheds]

AI - it's getting so difficult to tell the difference

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[belboid]

My god, this SDP advert is hilarious. Ohh, a bit of homophobia thrown in now. And Rod Liddle.

 

[PR1Berske]

I regret to inform you that Sky News' election night programme is to be carried from the Sky Sports studio, and that means 360° tracking of.......oh, I'll let this clip show you

 

[NoXion]

Hopefully the medievalist prick loses his deposit. Him and the Crusades revivalists are two ends of the same claggy turd.

 

[The39thStep]

The candidate is a prick but that Habibi is a horrible right wing Zionist scumbag

 

[Puddy_Tat]

2 more lib dem things through the door today - one 'local newspaper' style and one personally addressed - looked like hand-written name and address on the envelope (although probably a computer font that looks like handwriting)

don't think i've had this much bumf for an election before, even in 1997 when i lived in a fairly marginal seat.

 

[T & P]

Is there anything of substance behind the suggestion that they'll give votes to foreign nationals, or is it pure fantasy on Cleverly's part?

Not only it would be fair and right, it would also be logical and something the Tories would be supportive of if they were genuine about their constant droning on about immigrants needing to integrate and fully embrace life in the UK. As a matter of fact, long term foreign nationals living full time in any country, working, contributing to their communities and paying taxes on their earnings are arguably more deserving of the right to vote in general elections than expats who have lived overseas seas for decades, most often paying fuck all taxes to their birth country for good measure.

And to any Tory suggesting we should confirm our commitment/ loyalty to our adopted country by becoming UK citizens before gaining the right to vote, I would say most of us would have been happy to when the UK left the EU and it became a requirement, but will not/ cannot do so due to the xenophobic, cynical, exploiting bunch of cunts in government at the time who changed the procedure for long-term foreign residents to apply for citizenship from some basic checks and a nominal processing fee to needing to memorise and pass a test on an absurdly comprehensive British history knowledge most natives consistently fail, and charging over £1,200 per person to add insult to injury. Which you’d have to pay again if you fail even once.

I can afford the cost (though hundreds of thousand others will not) and will always consider this country as my own as my birth country. Have lived here longer by now, and whereas I am certainly not wealthy I have probably paid more income taxes over the last three decades than even some multimillionaire Tory-supporting expat scumbags.

But when the incumbent government suddenly moves the goalposts and increases the administration fees to a blatant poor people repelling device, and further insult us by imposing an absurd history test that most home born Brits would fail, as well as being completely useless at any pretend purpose of promoting integration and loyalty to our adopted home country, one can’t help but think the government doesn’t really want us dirty foreigners here, and will put up
with those of us who qualify for Settled status because they have no other choice under the Brexit agreement, but ultimately would rather prefer us not to become UK citizens.

I seem to remember reading some rumours about Labour granting long term foreign residents automatic citizenship. I might be partial on the issue but still think it’d be a completely deserving and just move, even if Starmer’s reasons for it were purely self-serving.

 

[JimW]

From another forum, the finally all agreed and certified candidate numbers this year.

No. on register	Registered party	Candidates	Withdrawn/Invalid	Valid candidates
12653	Abolish The Welsh Assembly Party	3		3
12700	Alba Party	19		19
10288	Alliance for Democracy and Freedom	9		9
67	Alliance for Green Socialism	2		2
616	Animal Welfare Party	4		4
3902	Ashfield Independents	1		1
6342	Blue Revolution	1		1
1765	British Democratic Party	4		4
2834	British Unionist Party - B.U.P.	2		2
2883	Chesterfield And North Derbyshire Independents (CANDI)	1		1
2893	Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship"	2		2
79	Christian People’s Alliance	22		22
12958	Climate Party	13		13
375	Common Good	1		1
17412	Communist Future	1		1
12791	Communist League Election Campaign	2		2
78	Communist Party of Britain	14		14
12939	Confelicity	2		2
14170	Consensus	1		1
51	Conservative and Unionist Party	633	3	630
12685	Count Binface Party	1		1
14064	Democracy for Chorley	1		1
12881	English Constitution Party	4		4
17	English Democrats	13		13
17415	Fairer Voting Party	1		1
17509	Freedom Alliance	5		5
63	Green Party	575	1	574
10327	Hampshire Independents	10		10
12550	Heritage Party	41		41
11433	Independence for Scotland Party	2		2
6839	Independent Alliance (Kent)	1		1
1951	Independent Network	5		5
17505	Independent Oxford Alliance	1		1
6662	Independents for Direct Democracy	1		1
6302	Kingston Independent Residents Group	1		1
53	Labour Party	582		582
90	Liberal Democrats	631	1	630
54	Liberal Party	12		12
684	Libertarian Party	2		2
733	Lincolnshire Independents Lincolnshire First	2		2
14103	Liverpool Community Independents	1		1
1931	National Health Action Party	1		1
12918	New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership	1		1
17713	Newham Independents Party	1		1
15315	One Leicester	2		2
17545	Party of Women	16		16
77	Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales	32		32
10253	Portsmouth Independent Party	1		1
12731	Propel	1		1
6655	Psychedelic Movement	1		1
12493	Putting Crewe First, Independent Residents Group.	1		1
2674	Rebooting Democracy	1		1
7931	Reform UK	611	2	609
11423	Rejoin EU	26		26
6712	Save Us Now	1		1
6380	Scottish Family Party	16		16
130	Scottish Green Party	44		44
15208	Scottish Libertarian Party	4		4
102	Scottish National Party (SNP)	57		57
46	Scottish Socialist Party	2		2
1912	Shared Ground	2		2
243	Social Democratic Party	122		122
17454	Social Justice Party	1		1
633	Socialist Equality Party	2		2
73	Socialist Labour Party	12		12
12670	South Devon Alliance	1		1
12666	Sovereignty	2		2
12793	Stockport Fights Austerity No to Cuts	1		1
6730	Swale Independents	1		1
6615	Taking The Initiative Party	1		1
2117	The Common People	1		1
15293	The Mitre TW9	1		1
17515	The North East Party	1		1
66	The Official Monster Raving Loony Party	22		22
133	The Peace Party - Non-violence, Justice, Environment	2		2
110	The Socialist Party of Great Britain	2		2
17452	The Yoruba Party in the UK	1		1
804	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	40		40
12596	Transform Party	2		2
12922	True & Fair Party	4		4
85	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	25	1	24
9053	UK Voice	1		1
8009	Volt United Kingdom	2		2
2755	Women’s Equality Party	5	1	4
11382	Workers Party of Britain	153	1	152
184	Workers Revolutionary Party	5		5
2055	Yorkshire Party	27		27
17 and 85	English Democrats and UK Independence Party (UKIP)	2		2
53 and 119	Labour Party and Co-operative Party	49		49
103	Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland	18		18
7968	Aontú	10		10
51	Conservative and Unionist Party	5		5
4037	Cross-Community Labour Alternative	1		1
70	Democratic Unionist Party – D.U.P.	16		16
305	Green Party	11		11
773	People Before Profit	3		3
55	SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party)	18		18
39	Sinn Féin	14		14
680	Traditional Unionist Voice – TUV	14		14
83	Ulster Unionist Party	17		17
	(Blank)	41		41
	Annibynnol / Independent	1		1
	Independent	408	3	405
	Independent / Annibynnol	10		10
	Independent Candidate	1		1
	Representing the people. Not a party†	1		1
	The Speaker seeking re-election	1		1

[tbody] [td colspan="5"]GB Register[/td] [td colspan="5"]Joint candidates[/td] [td colspan="5"]NI Register[/td] [td colspan="5"]Other candidates[/td] [/tbody]

NB: Does not take account of candidates whose endorsement was withdrawn
† Erroneously permitted description[/quo
te]

What's interesting is the Democracy for Chorley candidate is standing in Bideford, he just has warm fellow-feeling for the Duchy of Lancaster.

 

[xenon]

What does number on register mean in that table above?

 

[Dom Traynor]

What does number on register mean in that table above?

That's the partys number on the register of parties

 

[Pickman's model]

I'd have thought the only ones holding out now are the Bullingdon Club.

You say that but MSN

 

[PR1Berske]

One senior Tory claimed the only message that was resonating with the party’s voters was the line that failing to vote Conservative would hand Labour a supermajority on Thursday.

Senior Tory criticises ‘worst campaign in my lifetime’ as frustration grows

Rishi Sunak accused of failing to tackle threat from Reform while candidates complain of lack of support from CCHQ

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is probably a good example of how the Tories are facing a near wipe out on Thursday.

Just had another look at the predictions from electoral calculus for what has been true blue West Sussex, and compared them to what I posted back on 27th May, it's actually got worst for the Tories, it now looks like there's a good chance of them losing 6 out of 8.5 seats, I had missed the new seat of 'East Grinstead & Uckfield' last time, that is partly in both East and West Sussex counties.

The top four were predicted to remain Tory, now it looks like they will hold only one of those. The second four were predicted to change hands, although it was a mystery that Chichester would go to Labour when the LDs have always been best placed to take it, and with a bit more tactical voting it could still go to them.

I think the change in predications are down to both more tactical voting showing up in the polls, and the increase in the predicted Reform vote, after Farage took over as leader.

Those in bold are the six seats the Tories are likely to lose, watching the county results will certainly add an extra 'wow factor' for me.

Arundel and South Downs - Tory win, not sure why, as they have them on 48% chance of winning, against Labour on 49%. Tory win 58% / Labour 30%
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Tory win - 52% chance, Labour 46%. Labour win 61% / Tory 26%
Horsham - Tory win - 34% chance, Labour 34%, LDs 32% LDs win 72%
Mid Sussex - Tory win - 40% chance, Labour 36%, LDs 24% LDs win 91%

Chichester - Labour win - 75% chance. Tory win 38% / LDs 30%
Crawley - Labour win - 94% 98% chance.
Worthing East and Shoreham - Labour win - 97% 98% chance.
Worthing West - Labour win - 84% 85% chance.

East Grinstead & Uckfield - Tory win - 93%

 

[ska invita]

Senior Tory criticises ‘worst campaign in my lifetime’ as frustration grows

Rishi Sunak accused of failing to tackle threat from Reform while candidates complain of lack of support from CCHQ

www.theguardian.com

Noticeable lack of three word slogan this year.

 

[andysays]

Noticeable lack of three word slogan this year.

"Tories are fucked"

 

[ska invita]

"

Thing about PFI investment is that its short term gain for long term pain...Its like going to a loan shark
It does however allow for a honeymoon period and it will allow short term investment towards "tackling" the rot....the problems (of over the odds cost and shoddy standards) only really kick in down the line

Nationalise naturalo monopolies!
Cough, privatise them

 

[andysays]

Second Reform candidate has jumped to the Tories

 

[Voley]

Second Reform candidate has jumped to the Tories

“I am in no doubt that the party and its senior leadership are not racist. However, as the vast majority of candidates are indeed racist, misogynistic, and bigoted, I do not wish to be directly associated with people who hold such views that are so vastly opposing to my own and what I stand for.

“I also have been significantly frustrated and dismayed by the failure of the Reform Party’s leadership to tackle this issue in any meaningful way, and their attempts to instead try to brush it under the carpet or cry foul play.

She sounds surprised.

 

[andysays]

She sounds surprised.

I was thinking naive, tbh

 

[frogwoman]

"

Nationalise naturalo monopolies!
Cough, privatise them

I mean energy companies are already private tbf?

 

[frogwoman]

2 more lib dem things through the door today - one 'local newspaper' style and one personally addressed - looked like hand-written name and address on the envelope (although probably a computer font that looks like handwriting)

don't think i've had this much bumf for an election before, even in 1997 when i lived in a fairly marginal seat.

I've only had leaflets from labour and the pro Palestine independent.