I don’t know who electionmapsuk are - the website says it’s run by a 22 year old student - so I would take this screenshot of what their algorithm says for my constituency with a massive pinch of salt.
But it implies a four way marginal, with a huge anti-Tory vote one way or another, swing chiefly from Tory to reform which suggests no one here has really changed their politics, they just want the tories out. End result is the incumbent Tory just retaining the seat. The Lib Dem candidate is a longstanding councillor though the council are vocally hates on social media for their attempts to pedestrianise a road in the town centre, the usual complaints like why can’t I park everywhere for free, and has been active campaigning locally as far as I can tell.
The reform and Labour candidates are more or less paper candidates I think (Labour guy is 19, no idea about reform but we did have Farage in the constituency on Monday addressing a 1500 person Trump style rally) but if you aren’t following things closely you’d not know that and may vote for a party based on the leader
My gut feeling is the Labour and possibly reform support is overstated by this algorithm, see electoral calculus for a different view
New Seat Details - Newton Abbot and it’s a really a two or three way race but what if it isn’t?
I would not be surprised if this sort of pattern is seen in a lot of small working class towns. I wouldn’t describe Newton Abbot as left behind, it’s not the same as Ashfield judging by that Novara video, but there are some demographic similarities.
It does make me think there is a sizeable majority who want the tories out but still want Tory style policies on immigration and low tax (for themselves anyway)
www.broadcastnow.co.uk
