The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[A380]

Election on the 4th of July. Should anything be read into that?

Well yours is on the 5th November so might be worth checking the Capitol’s wine cellars…

 

[Elpenor]

Interesting read about young candidates; not quite as patronising as i thought

Five of the youngest general election candidates

An 18-year-old who hasn't had his A-levels results yet is among those standing in the general election.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Tory dresses like my dad who is in his 70s

The Lib Dem is standing in Hackney but has stood where I live in the SW as a councillor before so presumably grew up here. Maybe one to watch for the future

 

[klang]

I always wonder where these people think the people on boats will go if stopped in the ocean?

These people don't tend to think about the peoole on the boats too much.

 

[TopCat]

These people don't tend to think about the peoole on the boats too much.

Especially if in the Mediterranean

 

[Rob Ray]

This is quite a striking analysis from the FT.

There is a distinct possibility that the UK general election on July 4 produces the following outcome. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party wins a record 450 seats and a huge majority on a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats win the second-largest number seats, becoming the official opposition, despite finishing fourth on vote share behind both the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
If that sounds far-fetched, it is well within the range of current polling. Even with a less extreme result, it is likely that the Lib Dems could win around 50 seats on a lower share of the vote than Reform, which ends up with a few seats at best.

 

[brogdale]

View attachment 430049

This is quite a striking analysis from the FT.

LDs getting exact PR

 

[Rob Ray]

I'm less convinced by the PR portion of the piece, just because I don't see Labour under Starmer being even slightly interested.

 

[brogdale]

I'm less convinced by the PR portion of the piece, just because I don't see Labour under Starmer being even slightly interested.

I was just looking at the graph, tbh...y'know, 12% VS = 12% seats for the yellow streak of piss

 

[andysays]

View attachment 430049

This is quite a striking analysis from the FT.

Whatever the result of this election, it's not that the system is highly skewed against rightwing parties, more that it generally favours parties whose support is concentrated in particular seats rather than more evenly spread.

And at this election when the rw vote looks like being more or less split down the middle, those rw parties are going to lose out.

Might be interesting post election to see how many seats a hypothetical combined "Con and Reform" party would have won.

 

[Pickman's model]

Might be interesting post election to see how many seats a hypothetical combined "Con and Reform" party would have won

Conform

 

[moochedit]

I'm less convinced by the PR portion of the piece, just because I don't see Labour under Starmer being even slightly interested.

Nor do i. With 400+ seats why would he?

(OK. I do get that vote shares change over time and in future elections FPTP may help the right more than the left again but i doubt starmer will be thinking long term like that)

 

[Artaxerxes]

View attachment 430049

This is quite a striking analysis from the FT.

It’s highly skewed against any party and has been against self proclaimed progressive parties in previous elections

 

[Rob Ray]

Whatever the result of this election, it's not that the system is highly skewed against rightwing parties, more that it generally favours parties whose support is concentrated in particular seats rather than more evenly spread.

And at this election when the rw vote looks like being more or less split down the middle, those rw parties are going to lose out.

Might be interesting post election to see how many seats a hypothetical combined "Con and Reform" party would have won.

Starmer's entire reputation as an election winner seems to rest on the shoulders of Farage, if the FT model is anything like accurate.

 

[Dogsauce]

I’m tempted to go ‘aw, diddums’ when I see this sort of complaint from the right. We had decades of Tory rule when there was a left-of-centre majority in this country. Eat it up you fucks.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

View attachment 430049

This is quite a striking analysis from the FT.

I see a bar charts demonstrating quite clearly that 92% of seats are going to right wing parties (of varying degrees) on 89% of the vote. Tell me again how it's skewed against the right?

 

[CH1]

View attachment 430023

The cause? Even though they're going to make trans women go on men's wards and trans men go on women's wards, they're not changing the equality act to keep trans people out of toilets and changing rooms and other places.

Even with him now saying the incredible kindergarten cop men have a penis women have a vagina, which basically means trans people don't qualify in either category - it's not enough for this billionaire psychopath.

What will Keith do? Try and make Rowling feel better or decide nah fuck it.

Keith?
I have this trouble too. Not sure if it's incipient Parkinsons or Universal Creeping Spellcheck.

 

[CH1]

Did see quite a few Labour signs recently nailed up outside people's houses when walking from home from work this avo (relatively middleclass area in 2024). Not surprising, I think I've only ever seen Labour ones since the 90s, even when our Putney-based tory won comfortably last election. North of my own street you might as well be in Kensington, so things might be different, but I never have cause to go up there to check.

Probably Foxtons hedging their bets!

 

[andysays]

Starmer's entire reputation as an election winner seems to rest on the shoulders of Farage, if the FT model is anything like accurate.

That's why I'm curious to see what the result would be with the Conform* votes added together in each constituency.

It would certainly be a much closer thing than what's currently predicted.

* thanks Pickman's model

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Whatever the result of this election, it's not that the system is highly skewed against rightwing parties, more that it generally favours parties whose support is concentrated in particular seats rather than more evenly spread.

And at this election when the rw vote looks like being more or less split down the middle, those rw parties are going to lose out.

Might be interesting post election to see how many seats a hypothetical combined "Con and Reform" party would have won.

This is true but also the system is designed to produce majorities isn't it. Which in practice has meant large majorities for parties with a little over 40% of the vote - which has normally been the Tories. It's a bit rich to start bleating as soon as it's not.

 

[andysays]

This is true but also the system is designed to produce majorities isn't it. Which in practice has meant large majorities for parties with a little over 40% of the vote - which has normally been the Tories. It's a bit rich to start bleating as soon as it's not.

Having read the whole article (which I hadn't when I made my post) it appears that it isn't right wing parties bleating ATM, but someone from the electoral reform campaign group Make Votes Matter predicting that they will.

 

[agricola]

Having read the whole article (which I hadn't when I made my post) it appears that it isn't right wing parties bleating ATM, but someone from the electoral reform campaign group Make Votes Matter predicting that they will.

predicting that right wing parties will bleat when they lose is like predicting a sunrise

 

[Elpenor]

Mailshots received this morning

Labour - nice picture of the Teign estuary taken from Teignmouth back beach I think. The candidate is only 19. First one from them.

Tory - blah blah blah she is the current MP. First time I’ve ever seen her face, she is very anonymous round here I’ve found. Also the first mailshot.

Lib Dem’s - second one from them. Strong on cost of living and South West Water being shit. Big mention of how shit the last 3 Tory PMs have been. Fighting for a fair deal for Devon.

 

[cupid_stunt]

That's why I'm curious to see what the result would be with the Conform* votes added together in each constituency.

It would certainly be a much closer thing than what's currently predicted.

* thanks Pickman's model

A lot of those intending to vote Reform are doing it as a protest against the Tories, if Reform wasn't standing, a lot of those voters would be more likely to not bother voting, or even vote for another party, so adding Reform & Tory voters together could be interesting, it's not how it would have actually played out.

 

[andysays]

A lot of those intending to vote Reform are doing it as a protest against the Tories, if Reform wasn't standing, a lot of those voters would be more likely to not bother voting, or even vote for another party, so adding Reform & Tory voters together could be interesting, it's not how it would have actually played out.

Yes, a lot are doing it as a protest against the Tories, but it's a specifically right wing protest.

If Reform weren't standing, some of their voters probably wouldn't vote, but many (if not a majority) would vote Conservative. Very few would vote Lab or LibDem or Green, IMO.

So it's reasonable to combine the vote totals of Conservative and Reform in each seat to see how the "Right Wing" vote compares to the "Left Wing" vote for Labour.

It's a crude measure, but potentially interesting.

 

[Silas Loom]

There are a lot of Lab to Reform switchers. Not as many as Lab to Con, but it’s a substantial part of Reform’s current poll showing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If Reform weren't standing, some of their voters probably wouldn't vote, but many (if not a majority) would vote Conservative. Very few would vote Lab or LibDem or Green, IMO.

I disagree, I personally know former Tory voters around here that switched to Labour in the borough council elections, allowing them to take control of the council for the first time ever, in one ward, where they're too posh to vote Labour, they elected two Greens over the last 2 years, and I expect the 3rd seat will go the same way, when it's up for election.

Likewise I know people switching to Labour for the GE, as they are best placed to remove the Tories, and both seats in Worthing are likely to be taken by Labour, again for the first time ever. I expect the same is happening in areas where the LDs are in the best position to remove Tories.

This is a very strange election, which is why I find it so interesting.

 

[Silas Loom]

A lot of voters are tactically sophisticated. Also, a lot of voters are just really fucking stupid.

 

[PR1Berske]

Conform

From ConDem to ConForm

 

[The39thStep]

Whose seat is Labour spending the most on ?

 

[andysays]

I disagree, I personally know former Tory voters around here that switched to Labour in the borough council elections, allowing them to take control of the council for the first time ever, in one ward, where they're too posh to vote Labour, they elected two Greens over the last 2 years, and I expect the 3rd seat will go the same way, when it's up for election.

Likewise I know people switching to Labour for the GE, as they are best placed to remove the Tories, and both seats in Worthing are likely to be taken by Labour, again for the first time ever. I expect the same is happening in areas where the LDs are in the best position to remove Tories.

This is a very strange election, which is why I find it so interesting.

Tactical voting isn't the same as protest voting.