The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Leafster]

Two contrasting (polling) takes on the potential of tactical voting to kill off the Tory party:

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Only 18% of Deltapoll's (Oct 2023) respondents knew the information required to vote tactically. They could, of course, look it up.

Doesn't surprise me at all. I know in my seat labour came first and tories second and i'm sure many people on here know who won in their area but a lot of people are not election nerds like us

It will probably save some tory seats unfortunately as people "guess wrongly". Still at least the right is also split for a change

In my constituency (East Surrey), both Labour and the LibDems are saying they are best placed to displace the Tory candidate. Looking at historical results (ignoring the immediate post-coalition period) the LibDems are in a better place especially when you factor in the locals - LibDems have more councillors than the Tories and Labour have none. But earlier polling in this campaign suggested Labour were most likely to win. As things have developed some polls suggest it's neck and neck between the Tories and LibDems but others seem to show that Labour is closest. Even the tactical websites don't show a consensus.

Both the Labour and LibDem social media posts obviously quote the polls which are more favourable to them. I've only had one leaflet, from the LibDems, and that had the usual 'only we can beat the Tories' graph. Although I haven't received one, I believe the Labour leaflet says the same thing about them!

So, even though I've been taking note of all the information, I still can't decide which is the best way to ditch our Tory MP. The less informed won't stand a chance!

We'll probably still end up with a Tory, again. <sigh>

 

[moochedit]

In my constituency (East Surrey), both Labour and the LibDems are saying they are best placed to displace the Tory candidate. Looking at historical results (ignoring the immediate post-coalition period) the LibDems are in a better place especially when you factor in the locals - LibDems have more councillors than the Tories and Labour have none. But earlier polling in this campaign suggested Labour were most likely to win. As things have developed some polls suggest it's neck and neck between the Tories and LibDems but others seem to show that Labour is closest. Even the tactical websites don't show a consensus.

Both the Labour and LibDem social media posts obviously quote the polls which are more favourable to them. I've only had one leaflet, from the LibDems, and that had the usual 'only we can beat the Tories' graph. Although I haven't received one, I believe the Labour leaflet says the same thing about them!

So, even though I've been taking note of all the information, I still can't decide which is the best way to ditch our Tory MP. The less informed won't stand a chance!

We'll probably still end up with a Tory, again. <sigh>

Yep it's like being a goalie in a penalty trying to work out which way the ball will go. I don't have that dilemma myself as i'm in a safe labour seat where the tories are always second and lib dems nowhere.

 

[chilango]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

Maybe in the sense that a tortoise has a better turn of pace than a snail.

 

[danny la rouge]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

Mind you, so does a plaster floating in a swimming pool.

 

[The39thStep]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

A muddy puddle would tbf

 

[Sue]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

It's a pretty low bar. (And obviously it's all about 'charisma and presence'...)

You really need some new friends.

 

[moochedit]

In the latest episode of "I would vote Labour but..." from my m/c friends I hear that apparently Sunak has more charisma and presence than Starmer.

Someone at work told me we should all vote for sunak because he "saved everyone's jobs" with the furlough scheme and "everyone's forgotten that"

 

[Pickman's model]

Someone at work told me we should all vote for sunak because he "saved everyone's jobs" with the furlough scheme and "everyone's forgotten that"

We should all vote sunak so if there's another pandemic in the next parliament we can all make millions out of ppe and lateral flow tests.

 

[brogdale]

Someone at work told me we should all vote for sunak because he "saved everyone's jobs" with the furlough scheme and "everyone's forgotten that"

and "brought down inflation" so everything's cheaper now

 

[moochedit]

and "brought down inflation" so everything's cheaper now

He watches gb news as well so a bit of a tosser. Surprised he wasn't supporting reform to be honest.

 

[Pickman's model]

He watches gb news as well so a bit of a tosser. Surprised he wasn't supporting reform to be honest.

He had to learn how to spell it first

 

[Saints Alive]

Chasing sheep is best left to shepherds

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

My dabble into politics;

What is the future of the Conservative Party after this election? Would they ever recover or is this their Kim Campbell Canadian Conservative party moment?

What is the Conservative Party's future after this election?

*The only thing change I can think of straight at this moment it seems to be the tradition that if you lose an election you're meant to resign as party leader so obviously Rishi Sunak would be gone.

Is the Labour Party now going to be in permanent power like the Social Democrats in Sweden?

 

[Chz]

Would they ever recover or is this their Kim Campbell Canadian Conservative party moment?

Two things about this. One, in Canada the Reform Party had a major stronghold in Western Canada. Which somewhat breaks FPTP voting and allowed them a very strong result on a small vote percentage, whereas the PC Party had their vote stretched across the country. Somewhat like what happened the past few elections in Scotland. We don't have that here. In addition (point 1.5?), the PQ in Quebec - Canada's own SNP - were on the ascendant and killed any chance of returning many Conservative MPs there. So two blocs of the country were already not returning Conservatives (or Liberals, for that matter). The Liberals only needed to win over half the country for a large majority. The UK Reform Party is spread thinly, and FPTP works against them, rather than for them.

Second, the rump of the Conservatives just did the inevitable and merged with Reform (who ran out of steam, as all protest parties do), with former Tories ending up running things and the new party called the Conservatives. They then went on to win elections and run the country for a decade.

ETA: So it was embarassing for the Progressive Conservatives, but it did them no lasting harm, didn't prevent them from forming governments, and most people regard it as ancient history now.

 

[moochedit]

Is the Labour Party now going to be in permanent power like the Social Democrats in Sweden?

They said that about the tories in the 80s and new labour in the late 90s/early 2000s but the pendulum always swings back eventually. How many elections it takes though i couldn't say.

 

[PR1Berske]

What nobody says about Canada 93 is how it never happened again. It's a useful yardstick for reference, it's just not a signifier of parties always being in line to collapse.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

Reform Party: flash in the pan? Will they return to low percentage marks as happened in the 2017 election?

2015 -12.6%


2017 - 1.8%

 

[Chz]

Reform Party: flash in the pan? Will they return to low percentage marks as happened in the 2019 election?

Protest parties rarely have longevity in the polls, but it can happen. I wouldn't rule them out Just Because. It hurts that there aren't European elections to hijack with silliness any more, so I'd think the outlook is more pessimistic than it was for UKIP back in the day.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Interesting evidence of Hope Not Hate pimping for the Labour Right here Rochdale actions

 

[Silas Loom]

Good for them. As evidenced by the publication having a pop at them, which you are happy to cite, being some weird alt-right thing.

 

[Hotel Chocolate]

The only thing I can think of is there will be a slight increase in the demand for electoral reform and proportional representation. But I don't know how many people support proportional representation now, is it popular?

The only thing I can find so far:

Half of Britain wants voting system to change, with clear majority among Labour supporters | National Centre for Social Research

For the first time, more people in Britain favour introducing proportional representation than keeping the current voting system.

natcen.ac.uk

The strange thing about proportional representation was when it was explained to us at school when I was 8, I got it and wanted it!

 

[brogdale]

A straw in the wind from this fuckwit...pointing towards collapsing, front-line vermin morale

 

[moochedit]

Reform Party: flash in the pan? Will they return to low percentage marks as happened in the 2017 election?

2015
View attachment 429599

2017
View attachment 429600

I think something may have happened in 2016. Can't remember

 

[moochedit]

A straw in the wind from this fuckwit...pointing towards collapsing, front-line vermin morale

View attachment 429609

Him that's fucked it then

 

[moochedit]

The only thing I can think of is there will be a slight increase in the demand for electoral reform and proportional representation. But I don't know how many people support proportional representation now, is it popular?

The only thing I can find so far:

Half of Britain wants voting system to change, with clear majority among Labour supporters | National Centre for Social Research

For the first time, more people in Britain favour introducing proportional representation than keeping the current voting system.

natcen.ac.uk

Not seen any recent polls on PR. Always used to be popular before the con/lib governent and AV ref (which i know was not PR)

As another poster mentioned (can't remember who) you could start to see some people on the right start to support PR but there are a lot of people in both of the 2 main parties that are strongly opposed to any change. I doubt starmer would be interested in changing anything.

 

[andysays]

This is worth a read

Bar chart wars: What to watch out for on leaflets telling you who can win your seat

TLDR: they all lie, but the LibDems are the worst

 

[moochedit]

This is worth a read

Bar chart wars: What to watch out for on leaflets telling you who can win your seat

TLDR: they all lie, but the LibDems are the worst

They should ban parties from putting bar charts of previous elections in leaflets or at the very least require them to be to scale and include all candidates.

 

[andysays]

They should ban parties from putting bar charts of previous elections in leaflets or at the very least require them to be to scale and include all candidates.

According to the article, many of them also cherry-pick what figures they use depending on which puts their candidate in the best light, so eg one party uses the previous GE, but another uses the recent Local Elections.

 

[moochedit]

According to the article, many of them also cherry-pick what figures they use depending on which puts their candidate in the best light, so eg one party uses the previous GE, but another uses the recent Local Elections.

Yes good point. if graphs are allowed then they should be based on the previous election of same type.