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Anudder Oik said:
The right wing opposition to the right to vote in a referendum has been absolutely disgraceful up till now, not hesitating to stoop to the lowest twisted arguments or insults against what is a massive popular movement with a democratic spirit. Albert Rivera of the Ciutadans party has compared todays voting with practices reminiscent of fascism and nazism. As though voting were something evil.

Perhaps the worst speech has been that of Camacho from the PP. It looks like the evil catalans forced her to broadcast from the zoo.

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How about the right-wingers organising the vote?
 
Catalonia vote: 80% back independence - officials
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29982960
An informal vote on independence for Catalonia has shown more than 80% in favour, officials say.

The non-binding vote went ahead after Spain's constitutional court ruled out holding a formal referendum in the autonomous north-eastern region.

More than two million people out of an estimated 5.4 million eligible voters took part in the ballot.
Click to expand...
 
33% turnout. 80% in favour of independence. In other words, 26.4% of the electorate voted for independence. The other 20% of those who voted were split between those who want Catalonia to be a 'state' but not independent and those who don't want it to be a 'state'.

What can we infer?
  • That there are many people in Catalonia who want Catalan idependence, but we already knew that. The demonstrations demanding independence have been huge.
  • That opponents of independence mostly boycotted this 'illegal' vote

Where now?
The issue is not going to go away, but the pro-independence people are not going to get far with Mr Mas. They need people who are not only willing to organise a proper (albeit 'unconstitutional') vote with a proper electoral register but also prepared to declare independence if the vote goes in favour.

Does Mas even want independence?
He's not going to get it by negotiating with Madrid's stubborn opponents of Catalan self-determination. I'd guess what he really wants and might get is (yet) another renegotiation of Catalan autonomy within Spain.


Personally, I'd prefer the Catalans not to opt for independence, but the endless denial of their right to decide is sickening. If this anti-democratic provocation - in the name of the Constitution and a variety of irrelevant historical observations - continues, I reckon that in the end (5, 10, 15 years?) the Catalans will declare independence.
 
ska invita said:
shit you're right - were did i get that number :hmm:
what happens if you post before 1st tea
ignore my post

*5.4 mill of the the 7.5 are eligible to vote, from which 2.2 mill did - thats a 40% turnout i make it
Click to expand...


Consider this, in the last general elections in Spain 2.7 million people in Catalonia voted. In this non binding referendum 2.2 million have so far voted and people are still voting. They have 15 days more to go.

I spoke today to someone who didn't vote on the grounds that they don't like any form of nationalism as it seperates people. I argued that they should vote (even no) as it weakens the spanish government and confirms the democratic process. Also that, as the Catalans have been the underdogs, their nationalism is one of liberation and is therefore different from say British or Spanish nationalism which is chauvanistic and coming from a dominant position. I also pointed out that the left wing Independence movement is important and is going to lead the parliamentary anti-corruption investigation of the Pujol family which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. They have been put there (The CUP) by a growing grass roots movement which is, it appears, anti-capitalist.

Artur Mas took 30 years to discover the Independence movement. Everyone knows this. He will be brought down by the Pujol or Palau de la musica scandals and, if Independence is declared one day, the shit will really hit the fan if any catalan political party tries to impliment cuts. People here have very high expectations about social justice.
 
Lo Siento. said:
well. About 25 per cent of the people anyway.
Click to expand...

El Pais newspaper did this. They included the entire population in their statisitical calculation. 1.6 million children who can't vote should not be counted. That leaves an almost 50 50 scenario.
 
Papers are digging up dirt on Podemos trying to make out they're corrupt. Small beer so far but they'll throw all the mud they can. I think in the long term it's going to be hard to keep the momentum going while they suffer never-ending scrutiny and attacks.
 
Evictions back in the news this week. PAH Vallecas tried to prevent the eviction of Carmen Martinez Ayuso, an 85 year old widow, whose house was repossessed because she was the guarantor of a loan her son took out and was unable to repay. The eviction produced the unedifying spectacle of the Madrid riot police deploying in huge numbers to make sure that this happened:

1416597148_584689_1416600122_noticia_normal.jpg


She's back in now because the manager & players of the local La Liga team, Rayo Vallecano, paid her loan off. Pic from their match today: (banners read: Carmen Stays/The evictions of a state that's sick/The solidarity of a working-class neighbourhood)

B3IBk6dCAAAfDgk.jpg
 
Interesting article from the FT...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/48e6fa76-70bd-11e4-8113-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3JyAJP5Qt

Radical left is right about Europe’s debt

et us assume that you share the global consensus view on what the eurozone should do right now. Specifically, you want to see more public-sector investment and debt restructuring.
Now ask yourself the following question: if you were a citizen of a eurozone country, which political party would you support for that to happen? You may be surprised to see that there is not much choice. In Germany, the only one that comes close to such an agenda is Die Linke, the former Communists. In Greece, it would be Syriza; and in Spain, it would be Podemos, which came out of nowhere and is now leading in the opinion polls.

You may not consider yourself a supporter of the radical left. But if you lived in the eurozone and supported those policies, that would be your only choice.
What about Europe’s centre-left parties, the social democrats and socialists? Do they not support such an agenda? They may do so when they are in opposition. But once in government they feel the need to become respectable, at which point they discover their supply-side genes. Remember that, François Hollande, France’s president, explained the policy shift of his government by saying that supply creates demand.

Of the radical parties that have emerged recently, the one to watch is Podemos. It is still young, with an agenda in the making. From what I have read so far, it may be the one that comes the closest of all those in the eurozone to offering a consistent approach to post-crisis economic management.

In a recent interview, Nacho Alvarez, a senior member of the party’s economics team, laid out his programme with a refreshing clarity. The 37-year-old economics professor says the Spanish debt burden, both private and public, is unsustainable and needs to be reduced. That could include some combination of a renegotiation of interest rates, grace periods, debt rescheduling and a haircut. He also said Podemos’ goal was not to leave the eurozone – but that equally the party would not insist on membership at all costs. The aim is the economic wellbeing of the country.

To an outsider, that seems a balanced position. Not so in Spain. The establishment fears that this agenda will turn the country into a European version of Venezuela. But there is nothing controversial about the statement that if debt is unsustainable it needs to be restructured. Or that if the euro were to bring decades of suffering, it would be perfectly legitimate to question the eurozone’s institutions and policies.

The parties of the centre-left and the centre-right are allowing Europe to drift into the economic equivalent of a nuclear winter
The Podemos position recognises a simple truth about the eurozone in late 2014. It is logically inconsistent for the single currency to enter a secular stagnation and not restructure its debt. Since nothing is being done to avoid the former, there is a probability approaching 100 per cent of the latter happening.

Yet, for the moment, European governments keep playing the “extend and pretend” game. Where such a short-sighted strategy leads to can be seen in Greece. After six years of economic depression, the government finds itself in an acute political crisis. Syriza is leading in the polls, and stands a good chance of assuming power at the next general elections, possibly in 2015.

Spain is not yet at that juncture. Podemos might deprive the largest parties – the Popular party of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the opposition Socialist party – of an absolute majority in next year’s elections. It might force the two into a German-style grand coalition – which would establish the new party as the main opposition.

The situation in Italy is different but no less serious. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to generate an economic recovery in his remaining three years in office, the opposition Five Star Movement would be in pole position to form the next government. Unlike Podemos, this is a truly radical party, a firm advocate of euro exit. So are the National Front in France and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland.

What Podemos still needs to do is offer a coherent vision of life after a debt restructuring. It would be a good idea if the party organised itself at eurozone-level beyond its alliance with Syriza in the European Parliament, because that is where the relevant policy decisions are made. A debt resolution for Spain, necessary as it is, can only be the start of a wider policy shift.

The tragedy of today’s eurozone is the sense of resignation with which the establishment parties of the centre-left and the centre-right are allowing Europe to drift into the economic equivalent of a nuclear winter. It is a particular tragedy that parties of the hard left are the only ones that support sensible policies such as debt restructuring. The rise of Podemos shows that there is a demand for alternative policy. Unless the established parties shift their position, they will leave a big opening to the likes of Podemos and Syriza.
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Came here to post that. Looks increasingly likely that we might see a Greek-style political class coalition to keep Podemos out.
 
J Ed said:
Came here to post that. Looks increasingly likely that we might see a Greek-style political class coalition to keep Podemos out.
Click to expand...
you have to wonder if even the PSOE are thick enough to fall into that trap... I mean as it is Podemos' main appeal is that the PP and PSOE are essentially the same thing, and PSOE's remaining supporters are essentially the people who don't buy that and still think PSOE represent their half of the "Two Spains" . Simultaneously confirming what their detractors say about them and alienating most of their remaining supporters? Within a month of joining a grand coalition the PSOE would be polling sub-10% ...
 
Quick question - 'Gafapasta' - came across this word in an article 'Indies, hipsters y gafapastas' - I speak & read some Spanish, but it's new to me - it has more political/class/gentrification implications than the fashion-based hipster, right?

Edited to add - I found an explanation in another article about the same writer, Victor Lenore - 'el despistado barbudo con gafas de pasta...en realidad es un despiadado corrosivo de la mentalidad hipster, de su hiperconsumismo, su elitismo banal y su conservadurismo político.'
 
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Later today Iglesias is due to present (a draft of) Podemos' economic programme. Perhaps it will disappoint some people. This will not be a programme for socialism and it will not be a long wish-list of motions passed by the hundreds of 'circles'. It is going to be a lot more modest and interesting than that, I think.

With the general election almost a year away, it is far too early to say if they are really in with a chance of winning, but they seem serious about doing just that, so the economic programme is crucial.
 
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Following on from JHE's comments, the programme is being announced

The main highlights so far:

Reduction of the working day to 35 hours
An audit of Spain's debt
Basic income (no specifics yet)
 
Patteran said:
Quick question - 'Gafapasta' - came across this word in an article 'Indies, hipsters y gafapastas' - I speak & read some Spanish, but it's new to me - it has more political/class/gentrification implications than the fashion-based hipster, right?

Edited to add - I found an explanation in another article about the same writer, Victor Lenore - 'el despistado barbudo con gafas de pasta...en realidad es un despiadado corrosivo de la mentalidad hipster, de su hiperconsumismo, su elitismo banal y su conservadurismo político.'
Click to expand...

Gafas de pasta are glasses with big plastic rims and there's nowt else to it as far as I know. People used the term before people started before hipster was used in Spanglish.

Gafapastas is just someone who wears them but I don't know if that particular word predates hipsterism.
 
J Ed said:
Following on from JHE's comments, the programme is being announced

The main highlights so far:

Reduction of the working day to 35 hours
An audit of Spain's debt
Basic income (no specifics yet)
Click to expand...

The full document's here - negative criticism by both PP & PSOE has been immediate & predictable.
 
I do think Podemos are busy illustrating the impossibility of doing electoral politics and "doing politics differently". Essentially participative politics has translated into "participating" in the election of Pablo and friends, then watching as they come up with a Left-leaning economic strategy (presumably for "the circles" to rubber stamp later on). Pretty much exactly as any other political party has functioned in the past.
 
Lo Siento. said:
I do think Podemos are busy illustrating the impossibility of doing electoral politics and "doing politics differently". Essentially participative politics has translated into "participating" in the election of Pablo and friends, then watching as they come up with a Left-leaning economic strategy (presumably for "the circles" to rubber stamp later on). Pretty much exactly as any other political party has functioned in the past.
Click to expand...

Well they are a political party. Maybe they are making a crucial strategic decision to accept the reality of the present. Rather than - as so many lefties do - deciding they are going to rewrite the air we breath. 'Oh you won't need oxygen under (insert party here) we will all breath the love of (insert dead russian here)'. Followed immediately by millions of people looking the other way...

When you have a really big thing - the existing Spanish state - in such a dire way you need changes fast and pragmatic. It depends if Podemos sell out or not...depends if they can actually pass any of their ideas...depends if they work...
 
The Podemos leadership has decided to pitch their party as a movement of moderate social democratic policy. This has been a theme in Iglesias' comments for some time and is confirmed by the moderate draft of the party's economic policy. They also want people to see their movement as beyond left and right.

This does not indicate that the Boys from the Complu have given up on changing the world or Spain. It does not mean that their aspirations, hopes and plans are really limited to those moderate social democratic policies.

It indicates that they have given up on one particular way that leftists have tried to do politics. From a position of permanent opposition, many left-wingers present their programme to the people and aim to convince a majority who they hope will then carry the wise lefty programme-mongers to power, through election, insurrection or whatever. Iglesias and chums have rejected this way of doing left-wing politics.

There is a rather neat and likeable expression of that way of doing politics. A little over 20 years ago at the start of the Euro election campaign, a journalist shoved a microphone in front of Julio Anguita, the then Gen Sec of the PCE and leader of the United Left , and asked him what his party's strategy would be in the electoral campaign. Anguita, I think, didn't like the question, but he barely hesitated. "Explicaremos nuestro programa [We shall explain our programme]," he replied. "Programa, programa, programa..."

I think this - "programa, programa, programa" - has a great appeal to some leftists (and others, for that matter). It sounds wonderfully principled, honest and is about bringing enlightened guidance to the people. It just doesn't seem to work very well.

(In fact, the IU strategy in that election was not just "programa, programa, programa". Really it was to tell left-wing voters that PSOE was now no different from their right-wing opponents in PP, so voters who wanted to vote for the left or against the right had better vote for the United Left.)

Ironically, Anguita is one of the IU people in most friendly agreement with the Podemos people and not long ago the Boys from the Complu tried to recruit him. He politely declined, pointing out that he is a disciplined member of the PCE.

The Boys from the Complu are very influenced by the Latin American movements that interest them and, at least in the case of Venezuela, have employed them.

For good or ill, they want to follow a similar course. Chavez articulated popular discontent and did not in the early years present himself or his new movement as any variant of socialism, though people who knew him personally claimed he was 'anti-imperialist' and left-wing.

As Hugo C did, the Boys from the Complu are creating a new movement. They aim to ride a wave of discontent against what they have labelled 'the caste', get into government, use that position to set the political agenda and have much more influence in the mass media, involve masses of people in a process of re-writing the constitution, maintain a much higher level of political involvement and mobilisation... which they expect to take (or expect to give) a further leftist turn. They do not want to move too far ahead of what the people will support.

Do they have a detailed plan for two, three years into government? Do they have an already-worked-out socialist programme that they will reveal at some future point? I doubt it very much, but that's the direction they want to go.

This has nothing to do with 'selling out'. It is an attempt at a different strategy. Maybe it will succeed. Maybe it will fail miserably. Maybe it will improve Spain. Maybe it'll lead to disaster. I don't know, nobody knows really, but it's very interesting because unlike so many lefty initiatives it is led by people who are serious about winning elections, by winning widespread popular support, from way way beyond the minority who would have been inclined to vote for IU, and remaking the political system.
 
I agree totally. Personally right now I think Podemos are very encouraging. Makes a lot of sense to me at any rate. The way they talk, work with the media, look for mass appeal, appears absolutely spot on. I really hope it works.

Who are the `Boys from the Complu`? Ah, the university?
 
The only thing the far-left or anarchos can teach Podemos, Syrizia or RIC in Scotland is how not to do things. It's really important they don't listen to them.
 
Fantastic level of analysis here. Let's just live the history of twentieth century social democracy over and over again without even stopping to think, yeah?
 
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