Should There Be A Tier 5 Or Another Third National Lockdown?

[maomao]

Us all being where we are now kinda suggests “they” were right in September, no?

The shitshow currently happening is a direct result of decisions taken months ago.

The mutation to a more transmissable form wasn't predictable or inevitable. Or at least it wasn't predictable or inevitable where and when it happened. That's what's changed my mind about schools. If that hadn't happened and transmission rates were flat I'd be okay with a slightly improved tier system. I'd still have a lot of problems with the way the government is handling it but I wouldn't think the answer was close everything now.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Only if you assume the only two options are 'what we've got' and 'full lockdown now.'

Even the shoddy tier system we have had some impact on infections, which were coming down in the North as we entered the November lockdown.

If those interventions had been better timed, better funded, better targeted? We would be in a much better position now.

But there’s the problem - “some” impact, in certain areas, quite clearly isn’t enough. This country isn’t big enough for different regions to be viewed as separate entities. When you have an area the size of China or the US, maybe. We needed to act on the country as a whole, not the useless dicking about we had.

 

[andysays]

It's the speed with which some people, you included occasionally, jump to "lock everything away!" that comes across as gleeful. Not actually jumping for joy, but a grim satisfaction, like extreme schadenfreude. I don't know you, of course, and in real life in sure we'd be able to discuss this more reasonably - except of course we can't

But no fucking way in the world am I sharing any thoughts or ideas on here. You've got to be kidding. If I suggest keeping anything at all open I'll be accused of literally killing people's grannies.

I think I can understand what you're saying about how it might look like some people are gleeful, but to me it reads more like desperate.

We've seen nearly a year of half arsed measures (I'm not even going to use the L word), and we appear in many ways to be no nearer genuinely dealing with the problem than we were at the beginning.

In many ways, we've had the worst of all possible worlds - we've had all the various problems and disruption caused by restrictions, and they have without doubt fallen most heavily on those least able to deal with them, largely because of the absence of proper support. But because the restrictions have been so half arsed - not strict enough, too many exemptions, changing so often that people don't really know what's happening - we have all made sacrifices over the past year which appear to have been largely for nothing - mortality and infection rates are high, the hospitals are overwhelmed and it's difficult to see much prospect of much improvement.

IMO, this is 100% a result of the failure of government to bring in appropriate twin measures of strong restrictions and meaningful support at any stage, and given everything we've seen over the past 10 months, I don't think we'll see any genuine progress until they do.

But I hope you'll believe me when I say there's no glee in that, more a feeling of despair that so many have gone through so much for mostly nothing.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

The mutation to a more transmissable form wasn't predictable or inevitable. Or at least it wasn't predictable or inevitable where and when it happened.

Where and when, no. But a virus doing what a virus does was entirely predictable. The major failing has been reacting to what the virus has been doing, rather than preparing for the future.

 

[LDC]

I think I can understand what you're saying about how it might look like some people are gleeful, but to me it reads more like desperate.

Yeah, that.

 

[Winot]

Only if you assume the only two options are 'what we've got' and 'full lockdown now.'

Even the shoddy tier system we have had some impact on infections, which were coming down in the North as we entered the November lockdown.

If those interventions had been better timed, better funded, better targeted? We would be in a much better position now.

For example: the UK has terrible sick pay provisions. It is quite likely that people have not been isolating when they should because they are worried about starving. Increased help for those off sick could have made a profound difference.

 

[maomao]

Where and when, no. But a virus doing what a virus does was entirely predictable. The major failing has been reacting to what the virus has been doing, rather than preparing for the future.

So when you were calling for a full lockdown in early October it was because you knew the current situation was inevitable? You should look into a career in epidemiology.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I think it's just that the 'hard lockdown now!' crew are finally, indisputably right, so they're taking a moment to revel in it. But they've mostly been saying the same thing since September, so it's more a stopped clock being right twice a day situation than anything else.

Clocks stopped in September, is more like it. Nobody's revelling, just grimly relieved that maybe, just maybe, what should have been done ages ago might finally happen.

 

[Pickman's model]

Clocks stopped in September, is more like it. Nobody's revelling, just grimly relieved that maybe, just maybe, what should have been done ages ago might finally happen.

I will be astonished if the govt do what's right on the day they kill parliamentary democracy in this country

 

[LDC]

None of what people have been calling for here is at all out of step with what plenty of official and unofficial but knowledgeable advice has been calling for as well.

 

[killer b]

But there’s the problem - “some” impact, in certain areas, quite clearly isn’t enough. This country isn’t big enough for different regions to be viewed as separate entities. When you have an area the size of China or the US, maybe. We needed to act on the country as a whole, not the useless dicking about we had.

I just said the measures weren't strong enough, timely enough or properly funded. What did you think you were replying to?

 

[purenarcotic]

For example: the UK has terrible sick pay provisions. It is quite likely that people have not been isolating when they should because they are worried about starving. Increased help for those off sick could have made a profound difference.

Mate of mine’s husband works in PHE. When they looked at some of the local outbreaks, they were linked to workplaces with no sick pay. They worked out people were going in when they shouldn’t because they couldn’t afford not to. Devi Shridar has been saying for a long time we need to incentivise people to isolate by financially compensating them. I wonder what difference it would have made if we had paid people their full salary plus a bonus to isolate.

 

[Steel Icarus]

So what do you suggest?

I imagine it revolves around living off the remains of anyone small enough to go trip-trapping across his bridge.

 

[LDC]

I wonder what difference it would have made if we had paid people their full salary plus a bonus to isolate.

I'd have definitely had symptoms then! Almost certainly more than once.

 

[purenarcotic]

I'd have definitely had symptoms then! Almost certainly more than once.

I don’t care if people took the piss with it. Fine by me. I think overall it would have been a benefit.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

But I hope you'll believe me when I say there's no glee in that, more a feeling of despair that so many have gone through so much for mostly nothing.

Very much this.

 

[Edie]

Mate of mine’s husband works in PHE. When they looked at some of the local outbreaks, they were linked to workplaces with no sick pay. They worked out people were going in when they shouldn’t because they couldn’t afford not to. Devi Shridar has been saying for a long time we need to incentivise people to isolate by financially compensating them. I wonder what difference it would have made if we had paid people their full salary plus a bonus to isolate.

I got a text saying if I was on a low income I could claim £500, and that the local government would help support me to stay at home.

 

[xenon]

I do see the need, since there seems to be nothing else to avoid infections rising. But there had better be a plan. Not just months on end of everything shut. Accelorate vaccine roll out, form a backup plan in case this is not effective in a timely way.

I can't say I definitely won't bend the rules. I'm not going to live in effective isolation for an indephenate amount of time.

As for things like permits to pass, security at residential blocks, you can fuck off with that, Not that it will happen. Are police / the army immune anyway, as they're leaning over checking your papers.

I have no objection to egrecious rule breakers being fined but the general discourse on here about the stupid, the maskless, just plays into this idea that the rise in infections is down to the disobedient public, who must be kept in line with force. Security at residential blocks. Have a word with yourselves. ON the contrary it's surprising how well observed most of this stuff is. The virus is spreading because it's highly contagious, schools are open, many people still need to go out to work and shop. If there were 0 house parties or whatever, this would still be the situation.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Incidentally, so many of my customers are coming down with this right now, not just in the UK; two people from Nice going to St Martin yesterday, both their PCR tests came back positive. A family of five going on a work placement to Florida before Xmas, husband came down with it, infected wife and son. Re-scheduled to fly today, 2 weeks later, wife and son's PCRs came back negative, husband's positive and the two daughters now positive. It's fucking rampant.

 

[Edie]

I do see the need, since there seems to be nothing else to avoid infections rising. But there had better be a plan. Not just months on end of everything shut. Accelorate vaccine roll out, form a backup plan in case this is not effective in a timely way.

I can't say I definitely won't bend the rules. I'm not going to live in effective isolation for an indephenate amount of time.

As for things like permits to pass, security at residential blocks, you can fuck off with that, Not that it will happen. Are police / the army immune anyway, as they're leaning over checking your papers.

I have no objection to egrecious rule breakers being fined but the general discourse on here about the stupid, the maskless, just plays into this idea that the rise in infections is down to the disobedient public, who must be kept in line with force. Security at residential blocks. Have a word with yourselves. ON the contrary it's surprising how well observed most of this stuff is. The virus is spreading because it's highly contagious, schools are open, many people still need to go out to work and shop. If there were 0 house parties or whatever, this would still be the situation.

Well said

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It's the speed with which some people, you included occasionally, jump to "lock everything away!" that comes across as gleeful. Not actually jumping for joy, but a grim satisfaction, like extreme schadenfreude. I don't know you, of course, and in real life in sure we'd be able to discuss this more reasonably - except of course we can't

But no fucking way in the world am I sharing any thoughts or ideas on here. You've got to be kidding. If I suggest keeping anything at all open I'll be accused of literally killing people's grannies.

I think there's definitely a certain range of acceptable discourse that has grown up on these threads. I think it's similar to the politics forum in a way, although with different people involved - the responses here remind me of the indignant responses from the politics hardcore when the occasional 'is politics too hostile' threads start up.

I don't know if it's such a terrible thing tbh, a lot of the time I generally agree with the people involved in most cases. It does shut out other views and experiences though IMO.

 

[The39thStep]

I got a text saying if I was on a low income I could claim £500, and that the local government would help support me to stay at home.

Got to be on

• Universal Credit
• Working Tax Credits
• Income-related Employment and Support Allowance
• income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance
• income Support
• Pension Credit
• Housing Benefit

 

[editor]

I do see the need, since there seems to be nothing else to avoid infections rising. But there had better be a plan. Not just months on end of everything shut. Accelorate vaccine roll out, form a backup plan in case this is not effective in a timely way.

I can't say I definitely won't bend the rules. I'm not going to live in effective isolation for an indephenate amount of time.

As for things like permits to pass, security at residential blocks, you can fuck off with that, Not that it will happen. Are police / the army immune anyway, as they're leaning over checking your papers.

I have no objection to egrecious rule breakers being fined but the general discourse on here about the stupid, the maskless, just plays into this idea that the rise in infections is down to the disobedient public, who must be kept in line with force. Security at residential blocks. Have a word with yourselves. ON the contrary it's surprising how well observed most of this stuff is. The virus is spreading because it's highly contagious, schools are open, many people still need to go out to work and shop. If there were 0 house parties or whatever, this would still be the situation.

I still blame that sleazy fuck Cummings and the government for letting him get away with it. You could almost hear the country saying, "well if it's OK for him to break the rules, fuck it..."

 

[purenarcotic]

I got a text saying if I was on a low income I could claim £500, and that the local government would help support me to stay at home.

I would be intrigued to know how easy that payment is to claim and how T&T link you up with local government, or whether they assume you can do it yourself. It isn’t local government here anyway tbh, the main response has been from a local charity (who during lockdown one were incredibly well organised and coordinated in their response).

 

[purenarcotic]

Got to be on

• Universal Credit
• Working Tax Credits
• Income-related Employment and Support Allowance
• income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance
• income Support
• Pension Credit
• Housing Benefit

So fucked if you’re on just above to not qualify for benefits, but definitely not on enough to cope with loss of pay.

 

[existentialist]

For example: the UK has terrible sick pay provisions. It is quite likely that people have not been isolating when they should because they are worried about starving. Increased help for those off sick could have made a profound difference.

I am very glad that I haven't had to make that decision - as a self-employed person, the only sick pay option open to me would be a benefits claim - but I am fortunate in that much of my work has been able to move online. If that option had not been open to me, I am sure that I would have had to tread a fine line between trying to keep the wolf from the door and doing my civic duty not to assist in the spread of the virus, and that would have been a very difficult decision. Thousands - perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands - of people are going to be in the same boat.

It's all very well pointing in outrage at the Brecon Beacons being full of cars, but - blatantly outrageous as that is - it's the tip of the iceberg when you think about how many people must have been on the cusp of penury before Covid-19 hit, and would be having to decide between food and rent vs isolation. It's hard to sit in judgement on people having to make those choices.

 

[The39thStep]

So fucked if you’re on just above to not qualify for benefits, but definitely not on enough to cope with loss of pay.

Looks that way . The government page takes you to your local council for application. For example this is Stockport's Self-isolation support payment

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

So when you were calling for a full lockdown in early October it was because you knew the current situation was inevitable? You should look into a career in epidemiology.

No, it’s because people with far more knowledge than me about this were saying it.

 

[xenon]

Since I’ve been and still am so ill- struggling to breathe and fighting this terrible fever, I would not wish this on my worst enemy. I would say you must all do whatever you can to avoid getting it, cos if you get it bad it’s a terrible thing. Stay at home, be really fucking cautious, and get vaccinated as quickly as you can. Fucking horrible plague

Missed that you'd got it. Hope you're doing OK Edie. Well if that doesn't sound too trite, given ^ but yKWIM.

 

[andysays]

I do see the need, since there seems to be nothing else to avoid infections rising. But there had better be a plan. Not just months on end of everything shut. Accelorate vaccine roll out, form a backup plan in case this is not effective in a timely way.

I can't say I definitely won't bend the rules. I'm not going to live in effective isolation for an indephenate amount of time.

As for things like permits to pass, security at residential blocks, you can fuck off with that, Not that it will happen. Are police / the army immune anyway, as they're leaning over checking your papers.

I have no objection to egrecious rule breakers being fined but the general discourse on here about the stupid, the maskless, just plays into this idea that the rise in infections is down to the disobedient public, who must be kept in line with force. Security at residential blocks. Have a word with yourselves. ON the contrary it's surprising how well observed most of this stuff is. The virus is spreading because it's highly contagious, schools are open, many people still need to go out to work and shop. If there were 0 house parties or whatever, this would still be the situation.

Something else to point out is that the reason it's all dragged on for so long is that the restrictions have been so half hearted.

If we'd had a few months of genuine lockdown, with proper support, where everything which wasn't genuinely essential was shut, we'd be in a far, far better position now.

I also think that if it had been done in a way which stressed how serious and how important it was, we might have had less of the bullshit about making exceptions and people thinking it was OK to bend the rules a little, because it can't really hurt, can it...