UK gov England lockdown predictions!

[elbows]

I dont think I usually predict really strong measures until they are really quite close. And I'm used to guesstimating their actions and timing based on things like the actual current hospital pressure, rather than the modelling of hospital pressure. So I dont yet have a prediction about lockdown for this wave. And this is of course separate to what I think should actually be done, and when.

 

[elbows]

quite, which makes me think it's unlikely to be an outlier now too, and while there may be loud voices in the covid threads calling for tighter measures there's a whole lot more who just want to get to their turkey feast next Saturday.

Yes the balance is probably different right now here too but I wont try to guess to quite what extent.

Plus even past wave attitudes were influenced by things like number of daily deaths announced, so in some ways a similar dynamic to what I just described in my previous post. Which means its too early in the Omicron wave to see that side of things and how much it changes attitudes if those numbers start rising in ways that cause rapid alarm.

I'd say the speed of Omicron spread means the same sort of delays as seen previously will lead to far worse numbers, so we'll really need multiple bits of good news to come true for Omicron in order to compensate for that. The immunity picture is messy but there should still be some forms of good news on that front, its just a question of whether its enough to keep the numbers within a certain threshold. And even if lots of people continue to feel negatively towards formal restrictions, there should still be some good news on the 'peoples behaviours' front.

 

[Thora]

I'm doing everything allowed within the rules now, while also thinking a lockdown is certainly necessary and I will comply when it comes in. Most people I know irl are similar.

 

[pbsmooth]

I'd go to see my Mum whatever happens now. She's old and on her own and did Christmas alone last year, we're all triple jabbed and doing bugger all this week so risk is acceptable to all of us. And no risk to anyone else. And fuck Boris Johnson.

 

[weltweit]

I think Johnson firstly is terrified of spoiling Christmas this year so there won't be restrictions before then. After and between Christmas and New Year might be different but he risks open revolt from his party and they are already sharpening their knives where he is concerned.

A lot depends on how Omicron develops.

 

[_Russ_]

quite, which makes me think it's unlikely to be an outlier now too, and while there may be loud voices in the covid threads calling for tighter measures there's a whole lot more who just want to get to their turkey feast next Saturday.

Yea, perhaps Im just hearing one side mostly and the majority of the more libertarian voices in here are not engaging so much on the subject, which would make sense

 

[killer b]

Yea, perhaps Im just hearing one side mostly and the majority of the more libertarian voices in here are not engaging so much on the subject, which would make sense

I think they're mostly in the pub

 

[Cloo]

I'm going for Wednesday next week (22nd)

Nah, they're going to wibble on about probably maybe definitely doing something until 27 December earliest. There's no way they're 'cancelling Christmas'.

 

[killer b]

Nah, they're going to wibble on about probably maybe definitely doing something until 27 December earliest. There's no way they're 'cancelling Christmas'.

Looks like you're probably right - this kind of thing is what's swirling round the lobby atm

 

[platinumsage]

The key question now is the length of it. Not sure what two weeks will achieve.

 

[killer b]

The key question now is the length of it. Not sure what two weeks will achieve.

Crerar reckons a month. It doesn't really matter what they say to start off with though, if we get to the end of that time and numbers aren't coming down it'd be extended.

 

[elbows]

The key question now is the length of it. Not sure what two weeks will achieve.

Some of the SAGE documents dangled the prospect of a few weeks being enough to make a difference, although of course such papers also emphasise the need for early action. And SAGE generally continue to warn about tougher stuff being needed for longer if early opportunities are missed.

Booster rollout timing is one of the things that allows them to make the few weeks claim I suppose.

I dont know if the timing will actually turn out like that, but we would at least have a better sense of public behaviours and Omicron hospitalisation rates by then.

eg:

13. To significantly reduce the peak of such a wave, more stringent restrictions than the current Plan B measures would be required. To illustrate more stringent measures, groups have modelled impacts comparable to Step 2 or Step 1 [footnote 4] of the Roadmap for England. These scenarios suggest that, if sufficiently stringent and enacted early enough, measures and or behaviour change would not need to be in place for more than a few weeks to substantially reduce the potential peak in hospital admissions and infections compared with Plan B alone. The timing of such measures is crucial; if implemented late, it is less likely that these would prevent considerable pressure on health and care settings.

14. Reducing the total number of infections and delaying any wave in the very short term would allow more time for the accelerated booster roll out to take effect. This would also allow many hospitalisations to be prevented as a result, not just delayed.

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 15 December 2021

www.gov.uk

 

[dessiato]

January is my best guess now.

 

[_Russ_]

FFS They only reason they even had this second Cobra meeting was to deflect attention from the one yesterday where our glorious leader didnt even fucking show up.
I keep thinking he can't doing anything more blatantly contemptuous then he goes and surprises me.

Biggest fucking arsehole in British political history

 

[platinumsage]

FFS They only reason they even had this second Cobra meeting was to deflect attention from the one yesterday where our glorious leader didnt even fucking show up.
I keep thinking he can't doing anything more blatantly contemptuous then he goes and surprises me.

Biggest fucking arsehole in British political history

Today's meeting was a cabinet meeting, a different thing.

 

[_Russ_]

Makes fuck all difference what you call it

 

[magneze]

Incorrect

 

[Pickman's model]

FFS They only reason they even had this second Cobra meeting was to deflect attention from the one yesterday where our glorious leader didnt even fucking show up.
I keep thinking he can't doing anything more blatantly contemptuous then he goes and surprises me.

Biggest fucking arsehole in British political history

he's facing some sterling competition from you

 

[Cloo]

Press seem to be calling 'Christmas is safe!' (no it isn't there's a extra-highly infectious virus that can kill vulnerable people about just when loads of large groups are about to spend the day together, but hey ) and that it'll be a 2-week circuit-breaker from 28th.

 

[Supine]

Press seem to be calling 'Christmas is safe!' (no it isn't there's a extra-highly infectious virus that can kill vulnerable people about just when loads of large groups are about to spend the day together, but hey ) and that it'll be a 2-week circuit-breaker from 28th.

Christmas is safe? If only it was, my visiting unvaxxed sister and kids will be the most dangerous thing to happen to me this year!

 

[LDC]

Christmas is safe? If only it was, my visiting unvaxxed sister and kids will be the most dangerous thing to happen to me this year!

Much more for them than you though?

 

[Supine]

Much more for them than you though?

Maybe, but that is their choice. I’m worried about me

 

[elbows]

It was the Daily Mail and they meant safe as in safe from the last minute imposition of new rules.

 

[xenon]

Load of bollocks. I'm not in favour of a lockdown, circuit breaker whatever but if there's going to be one, just let us know already.

 

[Cloo]

Load of bollocks. I'm not in favour of a lockdown, circuit breaker whatever but if there's going to be one, just let us know already.

Well exactly - I think there probably should be something, but they need to let people know in case they need to rearrange plans, eg some people might need to rearrange seeing people if it's going to turn out they only have 2 days after Christmas or something.

 

[Pickman's model]

Load of bollocks. I'm not in favour of a lockdown, circuit breaker whatever but if there's going to be one, just let us know already.

plans have changed at various libraries over the last few days - for example one london college was supposed to close tomorrow but told its library staff yesterday they were closing at 5pm yesterday and reopening on 10 january. other places are showing more backbone. but it's a shitshow, i'm told, with students finding out today they can't come and collect books they'd ordered and with essays due in at the start of next term. there's no one who knows what the fuck is going on and this to me means that 2022 will likely be a compilation of the must aggravating parts of 2020 and 2021.

 

[xenon]

Yep. I'm staying with family for Xmas, back some time next week. We'll make our own minds up but would still be nice to know what the rules will be, what will be open after boxing day.

 

[Cloo]

It sounds to me like hospitals etc will be a totally shitshow for at least a month, maybe more, even with, say, a January-long serious lockdown, and when you come out of it, Omicron is still there ready to create more awfulness. The gov seems to be hoping they can get away with a short sharp or longer less heavy lockdown and it'll 'burn out' and that the NHS can survive a few weeks effectively in a state of disintegration and then hope COVID tails off, rather than a couple of 'merely' horrendous months. I presume that's the 'data' they're waiting for, which they won't get presumably as nowhere with a comparable demographic or vaccination scenario is letting it rip as much as we are.

 

[8ball]

Press seem to be calling 'Christmas is safe!' (no it isn't there's a extra-highly infectious virus that can kill vulnerable people about just when loads of large groups are about to spend the day together, but hey ) and that it'll be a 2-week circuit-breaker from 28th.

I got the feeling that Boris would be trying his hardest to keep things going til just after New Year.

Hospitality etc. goes a bit quiet after that.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I got the feeling that Boris would be trying his hardest to keep things going til just after New Year.

Hospitality etc. goes a bit quiet after that.

Yep
I repeat my previous bet:
Monday