UK gov England lockdown predictions!

[Flavour]

i think they'll avoid imposing any serious restrictions but the unofficial, non-binding advice will become "no household mixing over christmas" though a huge % of the country will go ahead with mixed-household family christmas events anyway

 

[Supine]

Three hours ago i said the 28th. I’m starting to think something a bit earlier, but no mention of the word lockdown.

 

[frogwoman]

I don't think we'll have a lockdown but I think they'll bring back tiers/rule of 6.

 

[killer b]

Lockdown measures are polling really badly fwiw - the last couple had massive support well before they were announced.

 

[elbows]

I was expecting some erosion in support but thats on the worryingly high side, beyond my expectations. Will just have to see how much it changes in the weeks ahead.

I expect reasons include the party stuff, do as we say not as we do. And overselling the extent to which vaccines could do all the heavy lifting in the pandemic. And the stupid use of promises that can only last for one or two seasons, all the 'irreversible' bollocks. Plus other failures to deliver clear and consistent messaging. And peoples resolve decreasing as the pandemic drags on. And the failings of the media, stretching quite far beyond the publications that have been shit all the way through and are always anti-lockdown. And all the stuff about Omicron being milder. And people trying to cling to their Christmas plans. And some peoples tendency to need to see the hospital and deaths figures increase sharply before they really believe things are getting that bad. And probably some other stuff that isnt leaping readily to mind right now.

 

[8ball]

I was expecting some erosion in support but thats on the worryingly high side, beyond my expectations. Will just have to see how much it changes in the weeks ahead.

I expect reasons include the party stuff, do as we say not as we do. And overselling the extent to which vaccines could do all the heavy lifting in the pandemic. And the stupid use of promises that can only last for one or two seasons, all the 'irreversible' bollocks. Plus other failures to deliver clear and consistent messaging. And peoples resolve decreasing as the pandemic drags on. And the failings of the media, stretching quite far beyond the publications that have been shit all the way through and are always anti-lockdown. And all the stuff about Omicron being milder. And people trying to cling to their Christmas plans. And some peoples tendency to need to see the hospital and deaths figures increase sharply before they really believe things are getting that bad. And probably some other stuff that isnt leaping readily to mind right now.

I'd add just not sensing any indication that following the rules is doing anything but drag things out when people are saying it's becoming something people will inevitably catch and that the vaccine is offsetting the worst effects so how long is everyone expected to put significant parts of life on hold for.

But very much the general fatigue with it all (that you mentioned) - I think that's probably the biggest thing.

Those figures surprised me a little too.

I think to add to that: the health, economic and social costs of the pandemic are also more obvious to many than at the time of previous lockdowns.

 

[redsquirrel]

Wednesday 23rd

Not full lockdown but vague restrictions on size and number of gatherings. Drink inside on a Tuesday but restaurants closed on the first Thursday of each month.

They already dithered and the time to take action to reduce the risk of chaos was some time ago. Now its more about reducing the potential number of hospitalisations and deaths, and plenty of that is already baked into the current situation.

Yeah I'm pretty sceptical a lockdown will happen. Further restrictions seem much more likely.

There's not just less support for a lockdown within the populace, IME businesses are also being (even) less responsive. I won't say my employer acted well in previous moments of crisis - they didn't they were unwilling to move ahead of government 'advice' - but nevertheless there was some sense of deep concern.
This time I'm not getting any of that. We are to have exams week in mid-Jan and this year bosses are still planning for these to be in person. They're not even discussing the possibility that these may have to go online.

With the lack of push for a lockdown I can't see the government introducing a lockdown. And if the pressure does build for a lockdown then by the time it has reached a tipping point then it could be of limited value.

 

[_Russ_]

I still dont think they will lockdown before Christmas, im guessing they will just introduce some London only measures backed up by financial support for all the poor businesses that are quite happy to make large private profits in the good times yet want socialism when shit hits the fan

 

[platinumsage]

Yeah I'm pretty sceptical a lockdown will happen. Further restrictions seem much more likely.

There's not just less support for a lockdown within the populace, IME businesses are also being (even) less responsive. I won't say my employer acted well in previous moments of crisis - they didn't they were unwilling to move ahead of government 'advice' - but nevertheless there was some sense of deep concern.
This time I'm not getting any of that. We are to have exams week in mid-Jan and this year bosses are still planning for these to be in person. They're not even discussing the possibility that these may have to go online.

With the lack of push for a lockdown I can't see the government introducing a lockdown. And if the pressure does build for a lockdown then by the time it has reached a tipping point then it could be of limited value.

I agree with this, no lockdown and also any resultant hospital overloading will be blamed on the unvaccinated.

 

[LDC]

Javid not denying the possibility of measures coming in BEFORE Xmas now.

 

[thismoment]

I wish they’d just get it over and done with. This procrastination is driving me round the bend

 

[platinumsage]

Javid not denying the possibility of measures coming in BEFORE Xmas now.

That’s the easiest headline in the world these days though - the media know no Tory minister is ever again going to deny the possibility of anything like this. It’s just lazy journalism.

 

[Elpenor]

Currently the govt mood music feels like - “have a normal Christmas, if you kill your relative in the new year it weren’t our fault”

Usually, by the time we get leaks of govt considering lockdown, we ought to have locked down a few days before.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

I think with other surrounding countries going into lockdown it's going to look terrible in retrospect if the UK doesn't do anything at all this week - they'll want to avoid another round of the blame game once this wave is over.

 

[clicker]

It's a bit staggering that anyone is still waiting for advice from our current govt, on how to spend Christmas.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

It's a bit staggering that anyone is still waiting for advice from our current govt, on how to spend Christmas.

And even if new “rules” are brought in soon, millions of people are past giving a fuck.

 

[platinumsage]

I think with other surrounding countries going into lockdown it's going to look terrible in retrospect if the UK doesn't do anything at all this week - they'll want to avoid another round of the blame game once this wave is over.

What countries are those?

 

[_Russ_]

It's a bit staggering that anyone is still waiting for advice from our current govt, on how to spend Christmas.

Thats the one that has baffled me all through this , the amount of people that quote government guidelines as actual guides to there own choices as if it lends some sort of moral weight to doing shitty things.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think with other surrounding countries going into lockdown it's going to look terrible in retrospect if the UK doesn't do anything at all this week - they'll want to avoid another round of the blame game once this wave is over.

I think Boris Johnson isn't too worried about the UK's reputation, if he was he'd have topped himself some years back

 

[elbows]

What countries are those?

Not to answer that directly in full, but on a related note I see that the country which was said to have similar strong travel etc links to South Africa as the UK, The Netherlands, has gone into lockdown.

 

[Badgers]

I think with other surrounding countries going into lockdown it's going to look terrible in retrospect if the UK doesn't do anything at all this week - they'll want to avoid another round of the blame game once this wave is over.

France and now Germany closing borders. Netherlands already locking down strictly. More likely to follow

Our beshitted government will try to save face and lose more face as things get out of control. They don't care about the NHS or most the public, that is obvious to anyone with a fucking brain. Sunak has been over in the USA pitching the sale of taxpayer funded assets to the bidder offering them the best ROI.

Disgraced Prime Minister de Pfeffel Johnson has dug himself into a hole with his corruption and if he ruins Christmas again then he is fucked.

When will they lockdown not if...

 

[nagapie]

Lockdown measures are polling really badly fwiw - the last couple had massive support well before they were announced.

View attachment 301654

I wonder how this compares to an Urb poll.

 

[killer b]

I wonder how this compares to an Urb poll.

I'd imagine if you asked how many of us will change our Christmas plans without being compelled to by the government we'd find similar numbers tbh

 

[Badgers]

I am meh now.

Have nice plans but if it is called off I am happy to stay home. Worry about my families health more than turkey.

 

[Sue]

I'd imagine if you asked how many of us will change our Christmas plans without being compelled to by the government we'd find similar numbers tbh

A few people have commented on views/behaviours here being quite different to those they're experiencing irl so wouldn't be surprised if the numbers were different.

 

[killer b]

A few people have commented on views/behaviours here being quite different to those they're experiencing irl so wouldn't be surprised if the numbers were different.

Suspect anyone who's full steam ahead is keeping quiet about it tbh

 

[_Russ_]

I'd imagine if you asked how many of us will change our Christmas plans without being compelled to by the government we'd find similar numbers tbh

I dont, from what I see everywhere else both online and irl this place is an outlier

 

[elbows]

Until the polling mentioned yesterday the opinion polls pretty much always indicated significant support for taking strong measures, in a manner that suggested this place was not demonstrating unusual views at all.

 

[killer b]

Until the polling mentioned yesterday the opinion polls pretty much always indicated significant support for taking strong measures, in a manner that suggested this place was not demonstrating unusual views at all.

quite, which makes me think it's unlikely to be an outlier now too, and while there may be loud voices in the covid threads calling for tighter measures there's a whole lot more who just want to get to their turkey feast next Saturday.

 

[platinumsage]

The feeling in the lobby: