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UK gov England lockdown predictions!

Lockdown number whatever?

  • September

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • October

    Votes: 6 7.1%

  • November

    Votes: 15 17.6%

  • December

    Votes: 5 5.9%

  • 24 December after spending December telling everyone to be careful in order to 'Save Christmas'

    Votes: 11 12.9%

  • Never, they're just determined to kill old and ill people

    Votes: 13 15.3%

  • They won't need to as everything will just sort itself out and be just fine

    Votes: 5 5.9%

  • They won't lock down again but they'll just reintroduce mask mandate or tighten up isolation again

    Votes: 19 22.4%

  • Fish

    Votes: 11 12.9%
  • Total voters
    85
Some of her comments may be phrased that way because there are tentative signs of a possible peak at the moment in Scotland, although its too early for me to express any confidence about that, need more days data.
 
I think there'll be some form of restrictions again but they'll shy away from calling it a lockdown. Johnson made quite a big deal of easing restrictions on a permanent basis this time around. Going back on his word not exactly a problem for Johnson, admittedly, but his libertarian right pull his strings so I'd be surprised to see him tell us we all had to stay at home again.

Voted December. I could see there being another pre-Xmas panic like last time.

200 plus dead today btw. What they're doing right now isn't working. :(
 
I'm really not sure; torn between nothing at all or some limited restrictions, but think it'll have to get very bad for them to come in again. If they come in think later rather than sooner obviously, November maybe...
 
Seems to me a key calculation the government will be making is how far they can bring the people with them. The last 2 proper long lockdowns (discounting the November shit one) were almost a tail wagging the dog situation as things had clearly got so bad people acted before the government.

I sense this time around things are going to be different. The awfulness of the January (actually November for many of us) thru April lockdown is fresh in the minds of people and everyone I have spoken to have said how awful it was. Couple this with the vaccination programme and with so many adults being double jabbed I sense the mood music may be different this time.

The phrase I heard a lot this summer just before the final unlockening was "We just need to get on with it now". Judging people by their actions that is exactly what I am seeing out and about. People have had enough and are getting on with it. Of course I'm only seeing people out and about and those still staying at home and being very careful are not visible but I sense a shift in the public's attitude.

Its been well observed on this forum that public mood can change very quickly especially if the ambulances start queuing up and people can't access basic treatment but I really think this time it will have to get very bad for a full lockdown to happen again. The government calculation will be they can hold out longer this time because many more people will want them too.
 
Ambulances have been queuing plenty this summer due to a mixture of pressures including Covid. And obviously the level of pressure has varied around the country.

I have no reason to automatically assume things would be very different this time in terms of public compliance. Attitudes have shifted a bit but this sort of thing tends to get exaggerated in peoples minds and so far more than enough people have recognised the reality at key moments and responded accordingly. I'm not suggesting there is no risk of things going wrong on that front, but I certainly wont predict it unless there are clear signs of it happening at frightening scale.

Indeed the fact this thread even exists right now is a sign that plenty of people are still attuned to the prospect of unhappy outcomes this autumn or winter.

The key consideration remains hospital pressure.

Meanwhile here is some stuff from Ferguson via the BBC live updates 12:10 entry: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58418535

Prof Neil Ferguson, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions across the UK, says it’s too early to say if more restrictions will be needed this autumn.

He tells journalists that the rest of the UK could expect cases to surge in step with what’s happened in Scotland once schools return, but the big unknown was how long that surge will last.

The epidemiologist, who sits on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), says that in the post-vaccine world the country can cope with much higher levels of cases and what ministers might consider an “acceptable level of hospitalisation”.
Click to expand...

But he points out that daily caseloads of between 100,000 and 150,000 a day would put “significant demands on the healthcare system”, especially when between 5% and 10% of the population are still unvaccinated.

He adds that, even in high income countries like the UK, healthcare systems could still potentially be overwhelmed in some scenarios.
Click to expand...
 
More 'expert' opinion:

Ministers should do more to prepare the public for the fact there will be waves of higher levels of infection this winter, according to the new director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Prof Liam Smeeth says he does not think there will be a return to severe lockdown restrictions as we’ve seen before and that for most doubled-jabbed adults Covid will now be a "fairly benign disease".

But he adds that the government cannot take its foot off all controls because of the numbers of people still unvaccinated who are vulnerable to severe disease.

Rather than see strict lockdowns, he says there might be periods when the public need to be encouraged not to mix so much, to wear masks in indoor spaces and not to go to hospital unless really necessary.
Click to expand...

Bad news for anyone who was thinking of going to hospital for a bit of a laugh as opposed to for essential reasons :facepalm:
 
Teaboy said:
Seems to me a key calculation the government will be making is how far they can bring the people with them. The last 2 proper long lockdowns (discounting the November shit one) were almost a tail wagging the dog situation as things had clearly got so bad people acted before the government.

I sense this time around things are going to be different. The awfulness of the January (actually November for many of us) thru April lockdown is fresh in the minds of people and everyone I have spoken to have said how awful it was. Couple this with the vaccination programme and with so many adults being double jabbed I sense the mood music may be different this time.
Click to expand...
And yet one of the main reasons why cases have not risen as much as they have is because the majority of people are wearing masks, socially distancing and taking other mitigation factors.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the Euros-driven spike in cases offered an insight into how far things still are from the pre-pandemic norm. “You could view [the Euros] as some sort of extraordinary event but I think that’s the wrong way to look at it,” he added. “I think what it actually is, is a glimpse into normal behaviour that we’ve forgotten. It was not that different to every Friday and Saturday night in a pub before the pandemic and you could see the immediate effect.”
Click to expand...
 

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com www.ft.com

The UK government is gearing up for a parliamentary battle to renew “draconian” emergency coronavirus legislation this month in a sign that pandemic restrictions may need to be reintroduced this winter. Boris Johnson, prime minister, will face his first parliamentary battle of the autumn over the measure when the House of Commons returns from its summer recess next week. Ministers are preparing for a fight with anti-lockdown backbench Conservative MPs over the Coronavirus Act, which handed the government sweeping emergency powers in March 2020.
Click to expand...

Officials at the Department for Health and Social Care said the extension of the legislation was necessary because coronavirus cases across the UK were currently running high, hospitalisations were rising and a difficult flu season was expected. Ministers are also braced for a surge of cases when schools return to England in the next week. One government insider said the government had no choice but to keep the legislation in place. “The Coronavirus Act is going to be one of the trickier bills to pass. We’re gearing up for a fight with our own MPs, who are going to be reluctant to support it.”
Click to expand...
 
Cloo said:
Seems to be a lot of parents thinking they've heard tell of planned October 'firebreak' (seems to be an 'I' paper front news story) Main evidence for that seems to be a DfE tweet insisting they're not planning one... :hmm:
Click to expand...
Yeah, I saw this too. I don't think it's a bad idea if rates are going up again. 2 weeks. no school, no "events", close pubs restaurants, non-food/drink shops.

A colleague's kid went back to school last week. Three kid's in her class have tested positive already (although schools are not a covid spreading hub, clearly, the government has said so). They won't want to close schools again, but a two week half term with a hard lockdown sounds sensible.

except, isn't that what the scientists suggested last year? and they didn't do it? :hmm:
 
It seems sensible although it will suck for anyone who makes plans for half term - I will probably plan some days off to be with kids but not book anything and if worst comes to worst, there's always 'going for a walk' providing weather's not apocalyptic.
 
Cloo said:
It seems sensible although it will suck for anyone who makes plans for half term - I will probably plan some days off to be with kids but not book anything and if worst comes to worst, there's always 'going for a walk' providing weather's not apocalyptic.
Click to expand...
I'm not going to make any plans for that two weeks. Half term doesn't affect us - my daughter is 23, but I'm not booking gig tickets or the suchlike around that time.
 
Indeliblelink said:
Won't an October "firebreak" just be the same as a normal half term?
Click to expand...
I think the idea is that you have a week or two either side of it, so you're not missing too much school.

Frankly I think shutting schools start of December might be an idea (and would have been a good idea last year) as you won't miss too much learning, although may not do much good unless you also try to impose Christmas mixing restrictions, which will be extra hard to do this year unless things look apocalyptic. Also, easy for me to say as we don't celebrate Christmas so my kids don't care too much about Christmassy things at school and so forth.
 
I think the message from the government on this is 'we may be planning a firebreak, but there's no way on earth we're going to say that more than a week or two in advance because then people won't spend lots of money on half term things'
 
They seem to be putting feelers out on the idea and dropping a hint around the time infection numbers may rise as schools return and the idea will sit better with a more anxious population.

Thinking up a name for it which isn't "lockdown" will also need some creative thinking 🤔
 
Ninja said:
They seem to be putting feelers out on the idea and dropping a hint around the time infection numbers may rise as schools return and the idea will sit better with a more anxious population.

Thinking up a name for it which isn't "lockdown" will also need some creative thinking 🤔
Click to expand...
They put feelers out about the NI increase, got shouted out even by tory MPs but still did it.

But I get your point.

On your second point "Firebreak" as mentioned above does the job.
 
mx wcfc said:
They put feelers out about the NI increase, got shouted out even by tory MPs but still did it.

But I get your point.

On your second point "Firebreak" as mentioned above does the job.
Click to expand...
I seem to remember Wales tried a "firebreak" last Autumn when England wouldnt, although it had no meaningful impact in the end. Seems a million years ago now.

Keeping the focus on the idea of schools spreading it will also keep the idea of vaccines for school kids alive despite the JCVI putting a spanner in the works.
 
Looking at the gov't covid dashboard and the graph for covid patients in hospital, to me, it looks as though there has been a slow but steady increase over the past couple of months [July & August] which gave just over 7,600 beds occupied by covid patients on 1st September. If that trend continues at the same rate we could be looking at 13,000 by the end of October ... the trend was steeper in early July so if was to continue at that higher rate, we could be looking at 20,000 ! [that was the level a few days before crimble ...]
I hope that doesn't happen, but something other than just vaccinations has to be providing the defence against infections.

I am definitely not looking forward to the figures for the next few weeks, as the English education sector goes back "to normal" - from the experience when my OH went back after the summer hols, I can guess just how many "bugs" the kids have been incubating !!!
 
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