Should There Be A Tier 5 Or Another Third National Lockdown?

[zora]

I think I can understand what you're saying about how it might look like some people are gleeful, but to me it reads more like desperate.

We've seen nearly a year of half arsed measures (I'm not even going to use the L word), and we appear in many ways to be no nearer genuinely dealing with the problem than we were at the beginning.

In many ways, we've had the worst of all possible worlds - we've had all the various problems and disruption caused by restrictions, and they have without doubt fallen most heavily on those least able to deal with them, largely because of the absence of proper support. But because the restrictions have been so half arsed - not strict enough, too many exemptions, changing so often that people don't really know what's happening - we have all made sacrifices over the past year which appear to have been largely for nothing - mortality and infection rates are high, the hospitals are overwhelmed and it's difficult to see much prospect of much improvement.

IMO, this is 100% a result of the failure of government to bring in appropriate twin measures of strong restrictions and meaningful support at any stage, and given everything we've seen over the past 10 months, I don't think we'll see any genuine progress until they do.

But I hope you'll believe me when I say there's no glee in that, more a feeling of despair that so many have gone through so much for mostly nothing.

^^^This, so much. Despair, and in my case, now, again, for the first time since March/April, terror. For myself and loved ones coming down with this wretched illness and there possibly not being adequate medical care available. All the while having to cope with the despair and the terror while being cut off from closest loved ones.

We have been living under such massive restrictions for such a long time. Even Tier 2 is hugely restrictive - in my case meaning not being able to stay with my non-cohabiting partner as we both share a house with other people. And I know everyone across all situations and age groups have got similar and worse deprivations to bear. And for all these long months, because the measures and their implementations have consistently fallen short of improving the situation enough.

 

[Cid]

I didn't see weltweit's post originally, but reading it in your post...er, yes, well. China . Of course we're not going to get away with a paramilitary lockdown like that.

<after writing this, am mainly using your point as a jump-off to something wider>

China's lockdown didn't work because it was paramilitary, it worked because China is highly regionalised. Which I think is what sam and weltweit were discussing. Chinese provinces are a bit more akin to states... But even within those provinces municipal divisions are quite distinct. As is the division between city and countryside. Your citizenship is tied to your city, and this affects where you can work or study (I forget the specifics). Couple that with private cars being basically inaccessible to most Chinese... Specific licensing arrangements in major cities, high cost of ownership etc. There are more intangible things too - arguably greater social cohesion within er... microdivisions (an apartment complex etc). Still some degree of multi-generational households...

The authoritarian stuff does play into of course... I'm pretty sure general faith in government remains strong, at least among the most significant groups (working Han Chinese). But the relationship to authority in China is... complicated. Even local police forces are to a degree attached to their communities, and will stick by them. Which... if you're a member of a minority group in that area or something... Not always good. But not the point here. Policing also tends to operate at bottlenecks - baggage checks on metro/trains etc. It's much less visible when you're just walking about. This may vary from city to city of course, but I'll say I never felt remotely intimidated by police presence in China. It certainly does happen to foreigners, Africans can have a pretty hard time of it afaik, but am getting off the point again... Which is that the Chinese relationship to authority allows a great degree of independence as long as you stick within certain parameters. Business interest are still a factor, lockdown fatigue is still a factor, a frustrated population is still a factor.

I say this because it's easy to say 'oh that worked in China, but clearly wouldn't work here because authoritarian'. But that isn't the full picture... I don't think it's even the main picture, given the success of other Asia-Pacific countries. Granted those were often lockdown free, but there were other intrusions. Even here, in lockdown 1, we did have vehicle checks. We certainly have had pretty intrusive levels of community policing in past crises - Blitz being the rather tired example. What I think it requires above all else is faith in government actions. Not faith in government; S. Korea, Aus, NZ etc aren't really known for that... But at least a sense that government's absolute priority right now is dealing with the crisis. That is where the UK has failed in just about every way possible... Whether that be clearly corrupt awarding of contracts, failure to utilise existing structures, failure of prominent individuals to adhere to rules (and failure to punish consistently for that). I mean, fuck, for much of the time they barely even seem to take the pandemic seriously. There are other things, our local leadership structures tend to be crap for example. And it's difficult for police forces plagued by structural racism to take an active role in many places. But I don't think these things were insurmountable.

I'll pop that KGM - Devi Sridhar interview in again, because I think she covers a lot of those problems very well...

 

[weltweit]

I'm not sure, honestly. I known the virus needs to be got under control, but the thought of several months, in the winter, of everything being shut down and not seeing anyone in person is really fucking depressing.

Yes, it is depressing, I have almost been like that already, working from home, avoiding people, the main time I am with others is when I am food shopping, which is also one of my most risky activities.

The thing is, the Wuhan shutdown starved the virus of hosts such that it literally died out. And that was when there were no hopes of vaccines or even many effective treatments. They beat it. We could also if the will was there.

Me I am scared of this virus, I don't want to gamble I might get a light dose, I might get a killer dose as easily.

What residential entry and exit points? I'm not sure how they managed to get that to work in China, but I can't see how it can be practical here. Putting ring of steel style cordons around boroughs maybe?

In Wuhan they stopped public transport, then started with barriers on entry and exit points of city residential blocks. You were only allowed to pass if you had the right written authority. They wanted to prevent any infected people visiting blocks that had no infections. Later they blocked roads also to prevent car traffic.

When they started to release the lockdown there were people who lived in blocks that had had no cases, they were allowed out first. Others whose blocks had been infected had to have a negative test result to move about.

How could it work here? Well for example we could block perhaps 4 roads and our village would be isolated, then it would be a question of eliminating any cases inside the village and preventing anyone infected from entering or leaving unless to go to hospital.

I don't know, I am just looking around and seeing what does seem to have worked, the Wuhan lockdown does seem to have worked.

BBC News Channel - Our World, Wuhan: Life under Lockdown

 

[elbows]

And, tbh, fuck the 'glee' stuff. Where do those who are suggesting it think this 'glee' is coming from? A love of repression? That seems to be the suggestion. And stuff those who might just be suggesting harder lockdowns as the only way out of it?

Yeah, its not glee. Its relief, and taking a stance that acknowledges that there is very little wiggle room to indulge those whose sour grapes, ignorance and instincts are incompatible with an appropriate pandemic response.

 

[scifisam]

Exactly. Those are the people who DON’T need it cos they’ve got money coming in. They are idiots. It’s those in the gig economy or on zero hours that need help.

edit: actually you can get it when employed:
View attachment 246091

Yes, it's only for employed/self-employed people - you have to be working and in receipt of one of those benefits as a top up.

By those rules Mr W (who doesn't go out to work) would get the £500 (ESA and housing benefit in his name) but I (who work full time) wouldn't, despite us sharing the household bills and essentially having a joint low income.

Nah, it's not as bad as that! Mr W wouldn't be eligible. You would, though, because you're working and your partner receives housing benefit.

The people who miss out are those who earn just over the benefits threshold as a household, or they can't get one of them for some other reason, like they live with their parents so can't get housing benefit even if they're the ones paying the rent. £500 for ten days' work isn't a hell of a lot.

In Wuhan they stopped public transport, then started with barriers on entry and exit points of city residential blocks. You were only allowed to pass if you had the right written authority. They wanted to prevent any infected people visiting blocks that had no infections. Later they blocked roads also to prevent car traffic.

When they started to release the lockdown there were people who lived in blocks that had had no cases, they were allowed out first. Others whose blocks had been infected had to have a negative test result to move about.

How could it work here? Well for example we could block perhaps 4 roads and our village would be isolated, then it would be a question of eliminating any cases inside the village and preventing anyone infected from entering or leaving unless to go to hospital.

I don't know, I am just looking around and seeing what does seem to have worked, the Wuhan lockdown does seem to have worked.

England doesn't have anything like a block system for that to work. To block off an area that included my flat but also included a mini supermarket you'd have to block off about 40 roads, not 4. And that'd mean loads of people in flats with no gardens and also no access to a park. Somehow I can't see that working. And I don't think the army is big enough to police all that.

 

[StoneRoad]

I must admit, as time has gone on, I'm getting more terrified of this damm virus, this new variant is a real threat.

I know there are treatments for some of the symptoms (including the cykostine (sp ?) storm), there are means of ventilation etc, etc ... but I still worry, for myself and my friends & family, as well as people in general.

Finally, there is some light at the end of the tunnel, with the vaccines (Pfizer and the Oxford ones).

We need to not lose our nerve and give up on the masks, social distancing and washing hands - plus the other anti-mixing measures that are all needed for controlling the rate of infections ...

 

[gentlegreen]

I anticipate still masking in the supermarket in 2022 - but I find I can do what I want to do without endangering myself or others
I'm getting more at ease with time- especially since learning a bit about viruses and how we need them as much as they need us ..

 

[The39thStep]

Yes, it's only for employed/self-employed people - you have to be working and in receipt of one of those benefits as a top up.



Nah, it's not as bad as that! Mr W wouldn't be eligible. You would, though, because you're working and your partner receives housing benefit.

The people who miss out are those who earn just over the benefits threshold as a household, or they can't get one of them for some other reason, like they live with their parents so can't get housing benefit even if they're the ones paying the rent. £500 for ten days' work isn't a hell of a lot.



England doesn't have anything like a block system for that to work. To block off an area that included my flat but also included a mini supermarket you'd have to block off about 40 roads, not 4. And that'd mean loads of people in flats with no gardens and also no access to a park. Somehow I can't see that working. And I don't think the army is big enough to police all that.

Anyone advocating a Chinese type lockdown in the UK needs to wobble their heads a bit