Russia to stop gas supplies to Europe (1/4/22)
- Thread starter cupid_stunt
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Cid
Proper break this time
The famous Ukrainian Baltic fleet, yes.
Cid
Proper break this time
That is partly what I was getting at incidentally; it seemed a weird choice for the Russians. But I assume it's not at all easy to attack a submarine pipeline largely undetected, so probably not some plucky fisherman.
On further consideration, from RU's POV, it would show ability to strike submarine infrastructure, which is a pretty large threat. Leaving aside pushing Europe on energy issues, which doesn't seem to stack up. But haven't thought that through fully.
On further consideration, from RU's POV, it would show ability to strike submarine infrastructure, which is a pretty large threat. Leaving aside pushing Europe on energy issues, which doesn't seem to stack up. But haven't thought that through fully.
Boris Sprinkler
Dont be scared
They haven't blamed anyone but its the main news story across the media here. I'm too lazy to translate.Several baltic countries are calling it sabotage.
nyheder.tv2.dk
Vores nabolande omkring Østersøen er enige: Gasudslip er sabotage
Sverige oplyser, at man har registreret undersøisk sprængning - og Polen siger, at man kan frygte flere af den slags provokationer fra Rusland.
nyheder.tv2.dk
Supine
Newt Member
Don't pretend to any special knowledge either of international affairs or of plumbing(well know a bit of plumbing) but if the Russians didnt want the gas to flow could they not just turn it off at the stopcock?
They could, but maybe they wanted to sow seeds of doubt about who did it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
They had already turned off supply via those pipelines.
With murky events like this, coming up with plausible motives is often not enough to be really confident of the perpetrator. And in this case we could probably come up with motivations for a bunch of potential perpetrators. So unless more info emerges I probably wont try.
With murky events like this, coming up with plausible motives is often not enough to be really confident of the perpetrator. And in this case we could probably come up with motivations for a bunch of potential perpetrators. So unless more info emerges I probably wont try.
Cid
Proper break this time
Don't pretend to any special knowledge either of international affairs or of plumbing(well know a bit of plumbing) but if the Russians didnt want the gas to flow could they not just turn it off at the stopcock?
They have already. It had gas in it because the pipelines need to be kept pressurised to maintain structural integrity.
Cid
Proper break this time
Not opportunity though.
It's a submerged pipeline buried in the seabed, presumably with fairly heavy sonar traffic (ok the last is total speculation, just seems likely).
Cid
Proper break this time
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Cid
Proper break this time
fwiw my first thought was light sabotage that had caused a collapse further down the line through pressure drop (maybe there are safety systems to prevent that?)... But the explosions put paid to that idea. I honestly have no idea, and of course am speculating. Just think that if a) it's sabotage and b) involved explosions either some surface vessel will be in hot water soon, or someone with a lot of capabilities did it.
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steveseagull
Well-Known Member
Polish MEP
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Married to Ann Applebaum who wrote Gulag and later, Twilight of Democracy
Indeliblelink
\......👁&👁......./
Back in Feb Biden threatened to "end" Nord Stream II if Russia invaded Ukraine.
Of course that doesn't mean they did it but they certainly looked at the possibility.
Of course that doesn't mean they did it but they certainly looked at the possibility.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Who are our guys ?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
It's stupid enough to be the US.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I wonder if there will be any effect on public opinion in Germany ?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Ukraine has accused Russia of causing leaks in two major gas pipelines to Europe in what it described as a "terrorist attack".
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.
He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine.
A few credibility issues here
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.
He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine.
A few credibility issues here
No assumptions there then, it's all on based on your comprehensive knowledge of deniable and covert undersea sabotage operations against gas pipelines?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Indeed. 'Straightforward' though, I think that might be a bit over confident. Me going to Asda tomorrow for my shopping is straightforward, not sure I'd count the planning and execution of a covert operation to sabotage an undersea pipeline as the same, but maybe that's just me.
If I had to bet Russia or adjacent types on behalf, and that seems to be the most likely candidate by far also according to a bunch of commentators. Reasons are standard; disruption, provocation, sending a message, etc. All the stuff they've done numerous times and places in recent history. Can't see any other logical possibilities tbh, although open mind to anything, although seems like we'll never really know. Russia would deny it anyway, even if remnants of bombs were found with 'Made in Russia' on them and we had photographic evidence of GRU agents taking a boat for a 'tourist cruise' over the pipeline the day before.
Galloway and all his ilk blaming the US/NATO. Of course.
Galloway and all his ilk blaming the US/NATO. Of course.
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Nylock
I hate 'these days'...
Why would Russia do it?
It could also be a drop in pressure causing catastrophic structural failure of the pipeline... Basically, who the fuck knows at this stage...?
- Sow fear and dispruption in EU and NATO states reliant on Russian gas.
- Cause hardship during the winter which could destabilise EU/NATO states reliant on Russian gas.
- Sends a message that Russia could attack and destroy any other essential undersea infrastructure (HV cables, Network infrastructure etc)
- Soften support for Ukraine by blaming/framing them
- Due to sanctions and an EU wide shift to future renewables/alternate suppliers the EU market is becoming a 'dead-end' for Russian energy exports so why not spectacularly cut it now for maximum impact?
- Demonstrate a warning to Russia that their pipelines and energy export infrastructure is vulnerable to attack and that the US can attack it at will
- 'Plausible deniability': Blame Russia for the attack to harden EU/NATO state support of Ukraine war effort/potential NATO escalation if Russia goes Nuclear
- Announce (without outright saying it) that there are US subs now stationed in the Baltic.
- Harden support for Ukraine by blaming/framing Russia
- Pissing off Russia and cutting off a revenue stream to Putin's war coffers
It could also be a drop in pressure causing catastrophic structural failure of the pipeline... Basically, who the fuck knows at this stage...?
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Ships don't float very well in gasses and tend to sink rapidly.
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