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4 minute warning?

It confirms here that you won't get the alert if on a 3G network. Also you need Andriod 11 and i'm on Andriod 7.


However i've also now discovered 3G is getting switched off in the next year or so, so looks like it's time for me to start looking for a new phone soon anyway.
 
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Remember visiting the peace museum in Hiroshima, some twenty years ago. It's a really sobering look at the horrors of using nuclear weapons and you have to wonder how such inhumanity could be replicated once more.

Understand why some joke about it, because in the face of such destruction, such vanity ridden, arrogant and paranoid "leaders" what else can you do?
 
krtek a houby said:
Remember visiting the peace museum in Hiroshima, some twenty years ago. It's a really sobering look at the horrors of using nuclear weapons and you have to wonder how such inhumanity could be replicated once more.

Understand why some joke about it, because in the face of such destruction, such vanity ridden, arrogant and paranoid "leaders" what else can you do?
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The difference now, compared with Hiroshima, is that any such attack would invoke a similar response. It’s self policing in that way.
 
There is another difference

iu
 
Isambard said:
From what I have heard China is possibly trying to broker some peace deal. Xi is visiting Moscow and then Washington soon I think.
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It's a funny peace deal that doesn't involve any communication with Kyiv.

The Good Friday Agreeement is a good example of what a peace deal actually involves - intensive shuttle diplomacy back and forth between Westminster, Dublin, and Stormont, and between representatives of both Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries, going back and forth to find demands and concessions acceptable to both sides.

China's "Peace Plan" involves meeting exclusively with Russia, allowing Russia to keep the land it currently occupies, and insisting Ukraine receives no more military support and agrees not to join NATO or any other defensive bloc. It isn't a serious proposal. It simply allows Russia time to recover (they have been unable to advance for a long time anyway) and renders Ukraine defenceless for round two.
 
Rimbaud said:
It's a funny peace deal that doesn't involve any communication with Kyiv.

The Good Friday Agreeement is a good example of what a peace deal actually involves - intensive shuttle diplomacy back and forth between Westminster, Dublin, and Stormont, and between representatives of both Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries, going back and forth to find demands and concessions acceptable to both sides.

China's "Peace Plan" involves meeting exclusively with Russia, allowing Russia to keep the land it currently occupies, and insisting Ukraine receives no more military support and agrees not to join NATO or any other defensive bloc. It isn't a serious proposal. It simply allows Russia time to recover (they have been unable to advance for a long time anyway) and renders Ukraine defenceless for round two.
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I'm not sure the gfa is a good example of what a peace deal involves. The peace of westphalia probably better. With the gfa the 26 cos gave up their claim to the 6 cos, sf dropped their opposition to pretty much everything and copperfastened partition. We were told there'd be a united Ireland by 2016. Doesn't seem to have been advanced that far by sinn fein
 
Pickman's model said:
I'm not sure the gfa is a good example of what a peace deal involves. The peace of westphalia probably better. With the gfa the 26 cos gave up their claim to the 6 cos, sf dropped their opposition to pretty much everything and copperfastened partition. We were told there'd be a united Ireland by 2016. Doesn't seem to have been advanced that far by sinn fein
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One water supply system. Check.
One functioning government in Ireland. Check
One Electricity system and market. Check
One economy effectively in the EU separate to the one in GB. Check

Although I’ll grant you two out of four have the Man Frog to thank rather than SF…
 
Rimbaud said:
It's a funny peace deal that doesn't involve any communication with Kyiv.

The Good Friday Agreeement is a good example of what a peace deal actually involves - intensive shuttle diplomacy back and forth between Westminster, Dublin, and Stormont, and between representatives of both Republican and Loyalist paramilitaries, going back and forth to find demands and concessions acceptable to both sides.

China's "Peace Plan" involves meeting exclusively with Russia, allowing Russia to keep the land it currently occupies, and insisting Ukraine receives no more military support and agrees not to join NATO or any other defensive bloc. It isn't a serious proposal. It simply allows Russia time to recover (they have been unable to advance for a long time anyway) and renders Ukraine defenceless for round two.
Click to expand...

I think the Good Friday Agreement gives us a guide to what a peace settlement might look like.

Both Ireland and Britian reducing their legalised claims to the 6 Counties.
Ceasefires and standing down of paramilitary groups.
Ramp down of British military activity.
Policing reform.
Regional autonomy.
Power sharing.
Cross border institutions.
Free travel and trade (why fcuking Brexit is a bollix).

These tenets would fit quite well to Crimea, Donetzk & Luhansk Regions.
But I would see more opposition to this kind of settlement coming from Kyiv (& hawks in Washington & Brussels) than Moscow.

We will see.
 
Isambard said:
I think the Good Friday Agreement gives us a guide to what a peace settlement might look like.

Both Ireland and Britian reducing their legalised claims to the 6 Counties.
Ceasefires and standing down of paramilitary groups.
Ramp down of British military activity.
Policing reform.
Regional autonomy.
Power sharing.
Cross border institutions.
Free travel and trade (why fcuking Brexit is a bollix).

These tenets would fit quite well to Crimea, Donetzk & Luhansk Regions.
But I would see more opposition to this kind of settlement coming from Kyiv (& hawks in Washington & Brussels) than Moscow.

We will see.
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Er Britain didn't reduce its claim to the six counties. You might be thinking of the Downing Street declaration of 1993 where John major said basically there was no selfish aspect to Britain's claim. There is of course the unionist veto. Ireland gave up articles 2 & 3, Britain didn't give up a thing. Where are pray tell the cross border institutions?

There were various negotiations and peace talks between republicans for more than 20 years before the dsd, 25 years to the gfa. And it was years after that before there was policing reform and standing down of eg the provos

Events elsewhere will overtake aspirations to a peace taking so long to obtain
 
Pickman's model said:
I'm not sure the gfa is a good example of what a peace deal involves. The peace of westphalia probably better. With the gfa the 26 cos gave up their claim to the 6 cos, sf dropped their opposition to pretty much everything and copperfastened partition. We were told there'd be a united Ireland by 2016. Doesn't seem to have been advanced that far by sinn fein
Click to expand...

There was more to it than that, people born in Northern Ireland got the right to Irish passports, an open border was established, amnesties and prisoner releases were established, power sharing etc, and the door was left open to a peaceful road to unification which will happen when a clear majority in Northern Ireland desire it, which they don't yet.

It wasn't perfect - the power sharing effectively institutionalised sectarianism - but it did bring an end to the violence (mostly).
 
Pickman's model said:
Er Britain didn't reduce its claim to the six counties. You might be thinking of the Downing Street declaration of 1993 where John major said basically there was no selfish aspect to Britain's claim. There is of course the unionist veto. Ireland gave up articles 2 & 3, Britain didn't give up a thing. Where are pray tell the cross border institutions?
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Yeah PM, it is a bit of a liberal wobble and I'd have been almost disapointed if you hadn't of jumped in. 😃

I was thinking of the 1993 declaration by Major and also the supposed position of the British state it would leave the 6 Counties when a majority wished it to do so. IF you can take the British state by its word, natch.

The one cross border institution that came to mind was Irish Waterways which in terms of the conflict is Ukraine is quite pertinent. Crimea's primary source of water for irrigation is a channel starting in mainland Ukraine which the Kyiv government blocked, causing hardship for agriculture. So some devolved/shared/joint control would be a good thkng.

Water is a strategic resource, Israel doesn't occupy the Golan Heughts for the scenic views.

Long time no post, nice to see you are still around.
 
Rimbaud said:
There was more to it than that, people born in Northern Ireland got the right to Irish passports, an open border was established, amnesties and prisoner releases were established, power sharing etc, and the door was left open to a peaceful road to unification which will happen when a clear majority in Northern Ireland desire it, which they don't yet.

It wasn't perfect - the power sharing effectively institutionalised sectarianism - but it did bring an end to the violence (mostly).
Click to expand...
And you think these agreements represent a model for for ending conflict between two states.
 
Isambard said:
I think the Good Friday Agreement gives us a guide to what a peace settlement might look like.

Both Ireland and Britian reducing their legalised claims to the 6 Counties.
Ceasefires and standing down of paramilitary groups.
Ramp down of British military activity.
Policing reform.
Regional autonomy.
Power sharing.
Cross border institutions.
Free travel and trade (why fcuking Brexit is a bollix).

These tenets would fit quite well to Crimea, Donetzk & Luhansk Regions.
But I would see more opposition to this kind of settlement coming from Kyiv (& hawks in Washington & Brussels) than Moscow.

We will see.
Click to expand...

Regional autonomy, power sharing, and cross border institutions might be a solution to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea but I don't think Moscow will accept this either given that will have to mean a military withdrawal. It will be justifiably hard for Kyiv to trust Moscow without them withdrawing given that Crimea's "autonomy" was merely a cover for its annexation by Russia.
 
Pickman's model said:
And you think these agreements represent a model for for ending conflict between two states.
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No, I never said that. It was the method not the content which is instructive. It involved intensive shuttle diplomacy back and forth to hammer out an agreement acceptable to all parties. By contrast China's peace plan involved talking only to Moscow and nobody else and listing some incredibly vague principles. They have since - after several months - had an hour phone call with Zelensky but haven't updated their peace plan in any way as a result.
 
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