Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
He's hoping enough people in Europe would rather throw Ukraine under a bus than suffer from higher gas prices/gas shortages. He may be right.
Russia to stop gas supplies to Europe (1/4/22)
- Thread starter cupid_stunt
- Start date
He's hoping enough people in Europe would rather throw Ukraine under a bus than suffer from higher gas prices/gas shortages. He may be right.
cesare
shady's dreams ♥
In the short term, yes. But longer term governments will source more reliable alternative supplies to mitigate the risk of this happening again when Putin sets his sights on another target.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Which relies on other supplies being reliable and not disrupted. That's a big ask
cesare
shady's dreams ♥
I predict that the effects on climate change will be disregarded as the likes of Australia hike up LNG production, for example.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
If China acts in the south china sea... if china acts against Taiwan... if tensions rise in the Persian gulf and Iran blocks the hormuz straits...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh. But if shit hits fan elsewhere I don't suppose Australia can supply enough. And if there's one thing we're not short of ATM it's people throwing shit at fans
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
There's plenty of gas still in the UK's north sea sector, it's just hasn't been tapped, because it was cheaper to import it, mainly from Norway.
Cid
Proper break this time
Guessing broadly what will happen is some level of rationing this year, potentially with price cap... Then maybe another north sea oil rush (I mean come on, Tories in need of money and unexploited resources?) along with other suppliers ramping up. Gas will find its way out of Russia too; China is exporting LNG to europe at the moment because 'lockdowns meant less gas use', in a totally unrelated coincidence Russia is trading LNG to China in roubles and yuan.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
There's a concerned face looking at Cumbria.
moochedit
Mr Mooched It
If orange is gas then where is norways? (Further north off the map?)
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Possibly, but I think they have land based gas sites too.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
In the Norwegian sector; spatial spread doesn't necessarily equate to quantity
elbows
Well-Known Member
If we are going to talk about remaining North Sea reserves then we need to look at what sort of maximum rates of production could be achieved. I'm years out of date but the slide in production after the peak early this century was a large one, and there was never any expectation that we could ever get production back to aything close to peak levels, it was supposed to be the ultimate peak and then a story of decline or at best stagnation once thing had fallen far below the peak. So far enough new finds were exploited that they eventually halted the steep decline in production, but getting those levels to go back up substantially is a big ask. But I'm years out of date, I'll have to look at what the most optimistic predictions can come up with - I'm assuming not much, but maybe I am wrong.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont know how long it will take me that enables me to answer that question to my own satisfaction. For now I just stumbled on this, but I dont know if its the full picture:
From In numbers: The UK’s natural gas predicament - edie
From In numbers: The UK’s natural gas predicament - edie
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Danes really fucked over the Germans with that waters border swerve to take in the mixed field.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
It’s not just the Ukraine war causing high energy prices, there are other factors limiting energy supply at the moment adding to the situation:
* France used to export a lot of energy to other European countries (including the U.K.) generated from the large number of nuclear stations they have. Unfortunately this aging (whatever the appropriate collective noun is) of nuclear stations is being unreliable and problematic, and their modern replacements are years from completion due to construction problems. As a result France is actually importing power a lot of the time.
* Germany has phased out nuclear generation (a decision made after Fukushima) , the last two stations were due to go offline at the end of the year, but will now be kept running for a few months more until winter is over. They’ve replaced this generation with gas power plants using mostly Russian gas.
* Scandinavia was also a big electricity exporter, with most coming from hydroelectric sources, but low rainfall during this hot year means generation has been much reduced.
* It’s also been a less windy than usual summer, with wind generation lower than expected. Gas generation makes up the shortfall.
* Locally, the decision to phase out gas storage in the U.K. is now looking like a really bad shortsighted idea.
* Rising demand post-Covid, more working on home (needing heat, power for laptops etc), more electric cars, bigger tellies etc…
some of these things may improve, others will linger for years.
* France used to export a lot of energy to other European countries (including the U.K.) generated from the large number of nuclear stations they have. Unfortunately this aging (whatever the appropriate collective noun is) of nuclear stations is being unreliable and problematic, and their modern replacements are years from completion due to construction problems. As a result France is actually importing power a lot of the time.
* Germany has phased out nuclear generation (a decision made after Fukushima) , the last two stations were due to go offline at the end of the year, but will now be kept running for a few months more until winter is over. They’ve replaced this generation with gas power plants using mostly Russian gas.
* Scandinavia was also a big electricity exporter, with most coming from hydroelectric sources, but low rainfall during this hot year means generation has been much reduced.
* It’s also been a less windy than usual summer, with wind generation lower than expected. Gas generation makes up the shortfall.
* Locally, the decision to phase out gas storage in the U.K. is now looking like a really bad shortsighted idea.
* Rising demand post-Covid, more working on home (needing heat, power for laptops etc), more electric cars, bigger tellies etc…
some of these things may improve, others will linger for years.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
A European Union proposal to cap the price Europe pays for Russian gas did not receive broad support from energy ministers in a meeting on Friday, two diplomats with knowledge of the talks told Reuters.
“There was a big debate about capping the price of gas, and the Commission should come up with a proposal that will help reduce the prices of all gas, but at the same time will not jeopardise gas supplies to Europe,” one of the diplomats said.
On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said European Union countries should set a price cap on Russian gas.
The finance ministers from the G7 countries have already agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports.
Asked about the plans at an economic form last week, President Putin said Russia’s response to price caps would be to “just halt supplies” of gas, oil, diesel oil, and coal.
“There was a big debate about capping the price of gas, and the Commission should come up with a proposal that will help reduce the prices of all gas, but at the same time will not jeopardise gas supplies to Europe,” one of the diplomats said.
On Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said European Union countries should set a price cap on Russian gas.
The finance ministers from the G7 countries have already agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports.
Asked about the plans at an economic form last week, President Putin said Russia’s response to price caps would be to “just halt supplies” of gas, oil, diesel oil, and coal.
smmudge
i know the smudge is true
Isn't that a bit weird? What's the chances of a huge tsunami hitting Germany?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Anti-nuclear politics was always quite a big deal in Germany, so it wasnt very surprising that Fukushima pushed it past the point that the government at the time felt comfortable dealing with. And the green party occupies a meaningful position within their political system. eg see Anti-nuclear movement in Germany - Wikipedia
And the Fukushima stuff was always going to cause some concerns that were not directly related to the detail of that accident. Plus even if we strip away the earthquake and tsunami detail, it was a story of decay heat vs loss of offsite power and backup power generation. Tsunamis arent the only thing that can affect the power supply, eg see the current concerns about the nuclear plant in Ukraine.
The current problems with the supply of other forms of energy may well change the balance of sentiments, but then it still takes years and years to change course when it comes to stuff like bringing back nuclear. Even before the Ukraine war some in power had second thoughts in Germany about the nuclear closures, but the industry itself then sometimes made noises about how it was already too late to change direction again, too much had already been lost in terms of specialised workforce etc.
RD2003
Got a really fucking shitty attitude
Back to the 1940s/'50s?
www.theguardian.com
EFL clubs to discuss energy crisis as Mansfield change kick-off to 1pm
English Football League clubs will convene next week to discuss measures that could combat the energy crisis
Cid
Proper break this time
Wonder what the nature of these Nord Stream leaks are? Seems to be both pipelines which is er... suspicious. Also apparently 'unprecedented damage'.
www.theguardian.com
www.theguardian.com
Russia-Ukraine war: Sweden launches sabotage investigation after explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines – as it happened
Swedish seismologists says blasts detected near gas pipelines, which are leaking into Baltic sea
Russia-Ukraine war: Sweden launches sabotage investigation after explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines – as it happened
Swedish seismologists says blasts detected near gas pipelines, which are leaking into Baltic sea
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Word on the street is sabotageWonder what the nature of these Nord Stream leaks are? Seems to be both pipelines which is er... suspicious. Also apparently 'unprecedented damage'.
Russia-Ukraine war: Sweden launches sabotage investigation after explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines – as it happened
Swedish seismologists says blasts detected near gas pipelines, which are leaking into Baltic sea
Russia-Ukraine war: Sweden launches sabotage investigation after explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines – as it happened
Swedish seismologists says blasts detected near gas pipelines, which are leaking into Baltic sea
Cid
Proper break this time
Swedish seismologists saying they detected explosions...
Russia-Ukraine war: explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines as gas leaks into Baltic Sea – live
Swedish seismologists says blasts detected near gas pipelines, which are leaking into Baltic sea
Cid
Proper break this time
I don't.
Cid
Proper break this time
The assuming is there to indicate that there's uncertainty, but for the purposes of the sentence I want to use that assumption. It's not a particularly unusual construction.
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