Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

[not-bono-ever]

Yes its good to see the non-racist Brexit Party not being racist like UKIP were / are. No racism to see here.

On other matters why do UKIP still bother?

Egos.

The same egos that led it its self cannibalism and will likely infect the brexit lot before long.

Farage will be ahead of the curve on this and will have distanced himself from the misanthropic melee that rabble rousers invariably attract.

 

[Don Troooomp]

'this slightly averted ruination of a vanquished labour party'?

Sorry - Just been doing some light reading.
Would you prefer, "That was fucking lucky - Phew, labour was close to getting a right shagging"?

 

[Pickman's model]

Sorry - Just been doing some light reading.
Would you prefer, "That was fucking lucky - Phew, labour was close to getting a right shagging"?

i'd prefer something that suggested you had a grip, however loose, on the matter at hand

 

[Proper Tidy]

If there was a GE now, I reckon Tories would lose a fuckton of seats and the labour vote would remain fairly solid as a reluctant section votes labour to stop the rise of BP, resulting in a likely labour majority (with a fair few traditional labour seats lost/not regained, like in '17).

Ofc a GE now is unlikely and Tories will look to regain the swing to BP under new leader, although as teaboy points out this leaves them exposed to losing votes and seats to LibDems when a GE is called. Maths looking worse for Tories whichever way you cut it imo

 

[Teaboy]

The tories have been here before and recently, when Reckless and Carswell defected and then won their by-elections. The tories still went on to remain in power at the next GE.

There are a group of people making a lot of noise about Brexit but when push comes to shove at a GE people will vote on the usual reasons. Its a bit of a bold prediction but I think we may have already passed the Brexit Party's high water mark.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Maybe,but we had a referendum offering AV and rejected it, so it's what we're stuck with. Anyway,it beats the Party List system we have in EU elections. At least with FPTP you chose a person as well as a party.

AV was the shittiest of alternatives, and the one that the Lib Dems calculated would be most to their advantage. It was rightfully rejected, and isn't "proportional representation". As for choosing person as well as party, that's bollocks if you're a tribal voter.

 

[redsquirrel]

Those around Corbyn advising on continuation of the 'constructive ambiguity' will obviously use this win as evidence that they're right to hold off from any remainist re-positioning.

With some justification surely.

 

[brogdale]

The tories have been here before and recently, when Reckless and Carswell defected and then won their by-elections. The tories still went on to remain in power at the next GE.

There are a group of people making a lot of noise about Brexit but when push comes to shove at a GE people will vote on the usual reasons. Its a bit of a bold prediction but I think we may have already passed the Brexit Party's high water mark.

Hmmm...I think the Brexit party's high water mark is yet to come; specifically over the next 8 weeks or so, and will culminate with the election of a Brexit(eer) party leader of the tory party.

 

[brogdale]

With some justification surely.

Well, yes, evidently.
But the problem will emerge as the tory party transitions into full Brexit barmy mode under the new leader.

 

[Don Troooomp]

In three months time the tories will be led by a Brexit chaos monkey. They will be chattering a wall of noise about identity, nationhood, threats, terrorism and most of all the betrayal of Brexit by parliament. They will whip up emotions and aim to chew up a big chunk of Nigel's voters. Life long Labour votes are up for grabs in those towns around the M62 and down the M6 and A1.
Labour sounds like a party for students hyped up about minorities, transgender issues and who think of everyone outside of the university towns as racist gammons and toxic masculinity.
It may be a lie but that is what many people hear. And the chaos monkey will target those people with soothing promises of taking them seriously.

Sadly, you're about right.
Labour has to change leaders, message, and presentation or it's doomed to many more years in opposition and, even worse, to end up like the Lib Dems - A sad set of fools no one listens to - A sort of political footnote in the history of parliament for historians to argue about and old activists to talk about while dribbling their soup in nursing homes.
Brexit could well be a new Invergordon Mutiny for the Labour party, but very possibly permanently destroy it this rime.

Will historians see this as the final blow for Labour, a party that since its first victory in 1924, 95 years ago, has only seen 34 years in power? I believe they might well unless something big happens, and happens quickly.
The saddest point, 10 of those 34 years were Blair, America's yapping little lapdog.

 

[brogdale]

People of Peterborough must be regretting that they've collectively spurned such talent...

 

[killer b]

The maths don't change in parliament regardless how brexity the new leader is, but the more brexity the tory leader is, the more space the Labour leadership have to come down off the fence. I won't pretend that kind of increased polarisation is something to look forward to, but I also don't think a mad no-deal leader is necessarily the election winning machine for the tories some of you seem to think it is.

 

[Don Troooomp]

i'd prefer something that suggested you had a grip, however loose, on the matter at hand

Could you suggest where I'm wrong?

What happened is:
Labour almost got fucked
Brexit almost got a seat
Brexit got a massive number of votes

If that isn't a massive problem, what the fuck is?

 

[Supine]

It was a single seat, it had to be won by a single person, who should it be if not the candidate that won the most votes?

I am a passionate believer in PR, but you can’t really do it for a single election. I suppose, proportionate job shares?

Brexit party was close. If faragcunt had stood he might have won the seat. Glad he didn't

 

[Don Troooomp]

The maths don't change in parliament regardless how brexity the new leader is

No, but the number of members with soiled underpants at the thought of losing their seats increases, and the results of this election is a big dose of laxative.

 

[redsquirrel]

but I also don't think a mad no-deal leader is necessarily the election winning machine for the tories some of you seem to think it is.

Absolutely agree.

 

[brogdale]

Absolutely agree.

Yes, killer b makes a very valid point...but...the increased polarisation posed by a Brexit barmy new tory leadership does not have to be a proven election winning machine to effect pressure on the LP to offer a more polarised opposition.

 

[brogdale]

The LP positioning in what Johnson's team are already calling the Brexit election has to come before the electorate get to say whether or not the Brexit-tory party are an election winning machine.

 

[killer b]

No, but the number of members with soiled underpants at the thought of losing their seats increases, and the results of this election is a big dose of laxative.

There's already enough Tory MPs who've torpedoed their careers over this to stop no deal, and the harder the brexit proposed by the new tory leader, the less Labour rebels would vote for it. The stalemate remains.

 

[killer b]

The LP positioning in what Johnson's team are already calling the Brexit election has to come before the electorate get to say whether or not the Brexit-tory party are an election winning machine.

Labour need to hold out on fully changing position until there's a new tory leader in place - this result helps them in that.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The maths don't change in parliament regardless how brexity the new leader is, but the more brexity the tory leader is, the more space the Labour leadership have to come down off the fence. I won't pretend that kind of increased polarisation is something to look forward to, but I also don't think a mad no-deal leader is necessarily the election winning machine for the tories some of you seem to think it is.

If labour had come down of the fence - and ditched its current policy which is admittedly abysmal - it would have lost last night. The result, labour winning in a leave seat and the Tory/BP vote split, is a major problem for Mason, Watson, Adonis and the other FBPE ‘socialism without the working class’ loons.

 

[brogdale]

If labour had come down of the fence - and ditched its current policy which is admittedly abysmal - it would have lost last night. The result, labour winning in a leave seat and the Tory/BP vote split, is a major problem for Mason, Watson, Adonis and the other FBPE ‘socialism without the working class’ loons.

At the moment, yes...but a change is coming!

 

[Pickman's model]

Could you suggest where I'm wrong?

What happened is:
Labour almost got fucked
Brexit almost got a seat
Brexit got a massive number of votes

If that isn't a massive problem, what the fuck is?

brexit actually getting a seat would leap unbidden to mind

 

[killer b]

This is going to be a wicked byelection. I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen, but whatever it is will prove whatever I believe about Brexit.

 

[brogdale]

Labour need to hold out on fully changing position until there's a new tory leader in place - this result helps them in that.

Yes, that's pretty much what I said upthread; in the short term it strengthens the leadership's justification for constructive ambiguity. But, in the medium term (next 2 months?) the pressure to re-position to a clearer oppositional stance to a Brexiteer tory leadership will strengthen rapidly.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Labour need to hold out on fully changing position until there's a new tory leader in place - this result helps them in that.

Tactically I agree with that. But, again, there is no future in a three way battle between labour/LD/Greens over who can be the most embarrassingly wrong about the character and nature of the EU.

As last night proved come a GE two party politics will be back in town. Labour needs to be competitive in both leave and remain seats. Yes, it’ll cost votes and yes it’ll disillusion some of the fuckwits who’ve bought into the myth of the EU as being about Europe and a symbol of progress, but it’ll also win them the election (in coalition with the SNP).

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yes, that's pretty much what I said upthread; in the short term it strengthens the leadership's justification for constructive ambiguity. But, in the medium term (next 2 months?) the pressure to re-position to a clearer oppositional stance to a Brexiteer tory leadership will strengthen rapidly.

Why? To want end?

 

[brogdale]

Why? To want end?

Because the incumbent administration and the media will set the agenda of the next GE; they're already calling it the Brexit election.

 

[killer b]

Because the incumbent administration and the media will set the agenda of the next GE; they're already calling it the Brexit election.

They tried to do this last time too tbf.

 

[Pickman's model]

Because the incumbent administration and the media will set the agenda of the next GE; they're already calling it the Brexit election.

Voting in the 2017 general election: a Brexit election? - UK in a changing Europe