StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Largely based on the details within opinion polling - looking for trends etc, so, statistical analysis plays a role.
Have a poke around the website for Electoral Calculus - Electoral Calculus
Peter Bone's time is up! Wellingborough by-election.
- Thread starter cupid_stunt
- Start date
Have a poke around the website for Electoral Calculus - Electoral Calculus
PTK
Paul Kegan
I am not sure that such things indicate what in maths is called "chance"
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Part of that will be the difficulty in translating mathematical or statistical results into accessible English.
They are likely to be translating the results of calculating probability into something their general readers will understand.
O&S(meme) - probability percentages - w!p O&S - Memes and Cartoons
By StoneRoad2013. Nice summary of probability terminology. [p = 0.0 to 1.00, with the later indicating complete certainty] This infographic shows the "scale" used by military intelligence services.…
www.ipernity.com
PTK
Paul Kegan
If there are four candidates, for example, then the probability of one winning is 1 in 4, or 25%.Part of that will be the difficulty in translating mathematical or statistical results into accessible English.
They are likely to be translating the results of calculating probability into something their general readers will understand.
O&S(meme) - probability percentages - w!p O&S - Memes and Cartoons
By StoneRoad2013. Nice summary of probability terminology. [p = 0.0 to 1.00, with the later indicating complete certainty] This infographic shows the "scale" used by military intelligence services.…
If you do not know the number of candidates there will be, then you cannot calculate a probability.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Starmer's whole strategy, miserable as it is, has been about negating that attack line hasn't it. And I'd say although he's a dismal failure in pretty much any other sense you can think of in that one specific area he's a success - only the most lunatic fringes of the Tories' core vote are going to look and him and be scared by the suggestion that Starmer might get in.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
None of them went home to prepare for government last night.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
from one angle, that's correct, but that is all a bit theoretical.
from a theoretical angle, if liverpool were drawn against a national league south team in the FA Cup, both teams have a 50% probability of winning (after replay / extra time / penalties if it comes to that)
in reality it's not like that, though
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
No, it isn't, because that is not what they are doing in these calculations.
Therefore, EC take into account "voting intentions" ...
These voting intentions are what electoral calculus are playing with. To start with, they are assuming that for any given constituency there will be a candidate to suit the voting intentions expressed in the opinion poll(s) they are examining. Even the true minority parties are usually included by, for example, YouGov in their surveys or such parties are covered by an "other" grouping. They also analyse the socio-economic make-up and several other factors in electoral areas, even going down to the council wards. Adding those up into new or existing parliamentary constituencies.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I see BF are dojng participation awards
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
very much 'regional sales manager of the year' award quality to the build.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
That's amazing
eatmorecheese
Free the bimbo koala Kenny
I survived the battle of 'Dundogging Cottage'I see BF are dojng participation awards
