Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

[tim]

Peterborough was majority Leave (can't remember exactly how large a majority) which suggests to me that LibDems won't be the protest vote of choice for the majority.

No, but they'll gather the protest vote of a substantial minority, just as long as they don't mention the Romans.

 

[treelover]

Any idea time of declaration?

worrying times

 

[belboid]

Between 3&4

 

[treelover]

tx

 

[belboid]

Labour win according to a dodgy report via britainelects

 

[PR1Berske]

Labour win according to a dodgy report via britainelects

A reminder that the first stage of counting votes is just that; counting the number of ballot papers, not putting them in piles by party.

Any "X has won" claim before midnight is baseless speculation.

 

[killer b]

It was apparently people from the Brexit Party campaign conceding they'd lost, who will presumably have canvas returns & the like to base their concession on. I dunno though - I remember a lot of Labour people thinking they'd been rinsed on election night 2017, and they hadn't been at all.

 

[The39thStep]

If Labour win then they will have survived the perfect storm IMO . A rampant Brexit Party , a Brexit fudge and defending a seat in which the last incumbent was bent.

 

[belboid]

A reminder that the first stage of counting votes is just that; counting the number of ballot papers, not putting them in piles by party.

Any "X has won" claim before midnight is baseless speculation.

They hadn’t even done that at that point. Any party should have a fair idea how they’ve done though.

It is highly plausible that they (bp) are spinning so a win looks even more incredible.

 

[killer b]

TBH anything other than a BP win would look incredible at this point, they've been favourites for weeks (and still are).

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[brogdale]

Turn-out = 48% suggesting that the LP ground war has got a good section of their core out.

 

[PR1Berske]

Turn-out = 48% suggesting that the LP ground war has got a good section of their core out.

One possibility - not my prediction but something to consider - is that Brexit Party has won polling day, Labour has won the postal vote. That is perhaps why the two parties are calling the result so close; they have assumed these two facts and can't figure out who has ultimately succeeded.

 

[treelover]

Don't postal voters tend to be older voters, who may favour Brexit?

 

[Wilf]

Just seen that the Brexit candidate featured on The Secret Millionaire programme. If Galloway had won the nomination they could have had The Not So Secret Millionaire.

 

[The39thStep]

Don't postal voters tend to be older voters, who may favour Brexit?

or who might have fought for the NHS, trade union rights, anti fascism , womemn equality etc etc

 

[treelover]

I am going by what pollsters have said, not personal views, etc.

 

[belboid]

Possibly a recount as Labour only 500 ahead!

 

[belboid]

Farage has reputedly left the building.

Hopefully the UKIP vote will be more than the difference between the main two.

 

[belboid]

tory - 7423
labour - 10484
english democrat 153
brexit 9801
loony 112
euekp 25
indie 101
sdp 135
common good 60
chrstian 162
lib 4159
some guy 5
renew 45
green 1035
ukip 400

 

[Ground Elder]

Glad I stayed up now

 

[Wilf]

Must be one of the lowest winning percentages for an English election.

 

[belboid]

Must be one of the lowest winning percentages for an English election.

the lowest JC has just said

 

[Smokeandsteam]

That result can be spun in many ways. Labour/Tory vote share, turnout, ‘ground’ operation etc but the two facts that scream out are:

1. support for Brexit isn’t going away
2. But the BP has failed it’s first test. UKIP was also able to rack up large votes at EU elections but never found a way to beat the two party system. The BP has also failed when it had all of the right conditions - leave seat, bent labour MP etc. Yes, labour threw the kitchen sink at this, but it has stopped the momentum of the BP dead. A disaster for Farage

 

[Wilf]

the lowest JC has just said

Blimey. Scot and Wales will presumably have had lower with 4 cornered contests.

 

[belboid]

Blimey. Scot and Wales will presumably have had lower with 4 cornered contests.

can't remember exactly what he said, he didn't say England, might have been by-election.

now i google - must have been by-election, there were two seats in 1922. Portsmouth Central won on 26.8% & East Ham 29.7%
Libscum won Southport with only 31% in 2015. Ohh, they won Norwich South with only 29.4% in 2010 too.

Lowest ever is SDLP 2015, 24.5%

 

[fakeplasticgirl]

Thank fuck for that!

Wonder if trump’s nhs selling comments helped labour...

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Labour got 31% of the vote share which is slightly above their polling nationally and indicates their GOTV operation was decisive against a dwindling Tory activist base and the failure of the BP to have put one in place. The latter was a perennial problem for UKIP as well, but also reflective of the realities of the two party system where the established parties are better at getting boots on the ground.

 

[A380]

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. One in the fucking eye for the man frog. Shoes the calibre of the ‘man’ that he ran away as soon as he knew he’d failed again. Could only have been sweeter if he’d been the candidate himself.

Brave sir Farrage ran away.

Fucking hilarious.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Labour (17.2%) and the Tories (25.4%) lost 42.6% of their vote share from the 2017 election and one of them still won. The other came third.

FPTP stinks.