Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

[PR1Berske]

Peterborough by-election, 2019
LABOUR Hold
Turnout: 48.3 (-18.4 compared to 2017 general election)

Lisa FORBES (Labour) 10,484 [30.9 -17.2]
Mike GREENE (Brexit) 9,801 [28.9 /]
Paul BRISTOW (Conservative) 7,243 [21.4 -25.5]
Beki SELLICK (Liberal Democrat) 4,159 [12.3 +8.9]
Joseph WELLS (Green) 1,035 [3.1 +1.3]
John WHITBY (UKIP) 400 [1.2 /]
Tom RODGERS (Christian Peoples Alliance) 162 [0.5 /]
Stephen GOLDSPINK (English Democrat) 153 [0.5 /]
Patrick O'FLYNN (SDP) 135 [0.4 /]
Alan HOPE (OMRLP) 112 [0.3 /]
Andrew MOORE (-) 101 [0.3 /]
Dick RODGERS (Common Good) 60 [0.2 /]
Peter WARD (Renew) 45 [0.1 /]
Pierre KIRK (UK EU) 25 [0.1 /]
Bobby SMITH (-) 5 [0.0 /]

 

[tim]

Labour (17.2%) and the Tories (25.4%) lost 42.6% of their vote share from the 2017 election and one of them still won. The other came third.

FPTP stinks.

Maybe,but we had a referendum offering AV and rejected it, so it's what we're stuck with. Anyway,it beats the Party List system we have in EU elections. At least with FPTP you chose a person as well as a party.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Further proof, if any more were needed that Labour under Corbyn are unelectable.

 

[agricola]

I hear Pakistan is to blame for this apparently?

Brexit party insiders said Labour’s reliance upon a mainly Pakistani vote in inner-city wards had been the difference between the parties. “Some of these houses had 14 people in them registered to vote. It would be interesting to see what proportion voted Labour,” said one.

First they got Roy out cheaply, now this.

 

[killer b]

I cant stop laughing at this.

 

[colacubes]

And this is why Farage didn’t stand. Pleasing news to wake up to

 

[prunus]

Labour (17.2%) and the Tories (25.4%) lost 42.6% of their vote share from the 2017 election and one of them still won. The other came third.

FPTP stinks.

It was a single seat, it had to be won by a single person, who should it be if not the candidate that won the most votes?

I am a passionate believer in PR, but you can’t really do it for a single election. I suppose, proportionate job shares?

 

[brogdale]

Trump’s comment about the NHS being part of any US/U.K. trade deal must have helped the LP get out their vote.

 

[planetgeli]

Of course, there's a very good chance the Brexit Party could win this, but there's also a reasonable chance that the LDs will come second, as leave & remain voters both go with their protest votes, as they did 2 weeks ago, resulting in a collapse of votes for both the Tories & Labour.

At no point have I suggested the LDs could win this, just come second.

Or 4th.

Psephology not your thing Cupid?

 

[Don Troooomp]

This isn't bad, it's fucking horrendous.
The very fact a new single policy party almost took this from Labour is a serious wake up call and this must not be shrugged off with "Ah, Brexit didn't poll a majority when you compare to remain parties".
Ding dong - Time to wake up and get together if we have any hope of stopping the Brexit stupidity. Their PR is way better than ours and we're going to have to change right now.

 

[William of Walworth]

Despite the above graph, my overwhelming reaction to this news is relief!!

A near-disaster is a whole lot better than a total nightmare .....

 

[Dogsauce]

Nice to wake up to this. If not now, how can they win anywhere?

& if Farage hadn’t set up this circus the tories would have walked it, he’s made the numbers for Brexit worse if anything.

 

[brogdale]

View attachment 173474

This isn't bad, it's fucking horrendous.
The very fact a new single policy party almost took this from Labour is a serious wake up call and this must not be shrugged off with "Ah, Brexit didn't poll a majority when you compare to remain parties".
Ding dong - Time to wake up and get together if we have any hope of stopping the Brexit stupidity. Their PR is way better than ours and we're going to have to change right now.

You seem to be addressing tories...not many of them will read that on here.

 

[JimW]

Labour actually increased their majority (by a whacking 80 odd votes) from what I just read

 

[brogdale]

Labour actually increased their majority (by a whacking 80 odd votes) from what I just read

To really wind up the tories...on a smaller turnout...

 

[cupid_stunt]

Or 4th.

Psephology not your thing Cupid?

I blame Keiran Pedley, research director at pollster IpsosMORI, who said, "it would not be a shock to see the Lib Dems poll ahead of Labour”.

Fair play to Labour for getting so many voters out, and pushing turnout to almost 50%, which is amazing in a by-election! The LDs did almost triple their vote compared to the last GE, and I am surprised the Tories vote didn't collapse further than it did.

Under all the circumstances I reckon all three of them will be happy enough, esp. Labour, whereas Farage will be very pissed-off.

 

[planetgeli]

Racist fuckwits be racist fuckwits.

Brexit party insiders said Labour’s reliance upon a mainly Pakistani vote in inner-city wards had been the difference between the parties. “Some of these houses had 14 people in them registered to vote. It would be interesting to see what proportion voted Labour,” said one.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Nice to wake up to this. If not now, how can they win anywhere?

& if Farage hadn’t set up this circus the tories would have walked it, he’s made the numbers for Brexit worse if anything.

you cant really say that - the success of the brexit party is a result of the fact that brexit is in chaos - but so is the the fact that labour lost votes to the lib dems and greens (and the brexit party). If farage hadn't floated back up the political u-bend you would almost certainly have had another variety of cunt leading a "make brexit great again" party.

 

[teqniq]

Apparently the BBC have had Farage on. Again. Agenda? No, Shurely not!

 

[Pickman's model]

Apparently the BBC have had Farage on. Again. Agenda? No, Shurely not!

yeh he was on the toady programme at 0710

 

[magneze]

Pleased to hear this morning.

 

[Don Troooomp]

Despite the above graph, my overwhelming reaction to this news is relief!!

A near-disaster is a whole lot better than a total nightmare .....

"Relief" - Agreed

A near disaster isn't what this is, it's a real disaster and nothing less - This slightly averted ruination of a vanquished Labour party is a portent of doom, and one we must heed.

The bay-trees in our country are all wither'd
And meteors fright the fixed stars of heaven;
The pale-faced moon looks bloody on the earth
And lean-look'd prophets whisper fearful change.

 

[brogdale]

Those around Corbyn advising on continuation of the 'constructive ambiguity' will obviously use this win as evidence that they're right to hold off from any remainist re-positioning. Could cause some medium term strife for Lab as it becomes more obvious that the new tory leadership will become Brexit party.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Relief" - Agreed

A near disaster isn't what this is, it's a real disaster and nothing less - This slightly averted ruination of a vanquished Labour party is a portent of doom, and one we must heed.

The bay-trees in our country are all wither'd
And meteors fright the fixed stars of heaven;
The pale-faced moon looks bloody on the earth
And lean-look'd prophets whisper fearful change.

'this slightly averted ruination of a vanquished labour party'?

 

[Dogsauce]

If the Brexit party implodes completely most of those votes will come back to the tories, as happened with UKIP in 2017. Meanwhile the Labour vote will see some erosion from a revived Libdems. Not all looking rosy for the future.

 

[Proper Tidy]

View attachment 173474

This isn't bad, it's fucking horrendous.
The very fact a new single policy party almost took this from Labour is a serious wake up call and this must not be shrugged off with "Ah, Brexit didn't poll a majority when you compare to remain parties".
Ding dong - Time to wake up and get together if we have any hope of stopping the Brexit stupidity. Their PR is way better than ours and we're going to have to change right now.

This was a marginal before, with a few hundred votes between labour and Tories. Not buying into the glorious victory for labour stuff, but the party absolutely shitting it at the result will be the Tories. They are being squeezed by BP on one side and LibDems on other, absolutely fucked. Lol

 

[Teaboy]

Yes its good to see the non-racist Brexit Party not being racist like UKIP were / are. No racism to see here.

On other matters why do UKIP still bother?

 

[Teaboy]

If the Brexit party implodes completely most of those votes will come back to the tories, as happened with UKIP in 2017. Meanwhile the Labour vote will see some erosion from a revived Libdems. Not all looking rosy for the future.

This was a marginal before, with a few hundred votes between labour and Tories. Not buying into the glorious victory for labour stuff, but the party absolutely shitting it at the result will be the Tories. They are being squeezed by BP on one side and LibDems on other, absolutely fucked. Lol

Yeah, I still think lib dems take more votes from tories than Labour.

 

[Don Troooomp]

This was a marginal before, with a few hundred votes between labour and Tories. Not buying into the glorious victory for labour stuff, but the party absolutely shitting it at the result will be the Tories. They are being squeezed by BP on one side and LibDems on other, absolutely fucked. Lol

Seeing the tories fucked is quite nice, but the cost of that fucking is less so.

 

[ferrelhadley]

In three months time the tories will be led by a Brexit chaos monkey. They will be chattering a wall of noise about identity, nationhood, threats, terrorism and most of all the betrayal of Brexit by parliament. They will whip up emotions and aim to chew up a big chunk of Nigel's voters. Life long Labour votes are up for grabs in those towns around the M62 and down the M6 and A1.
Labour sounds like a party for students hyped up about minorities, transgender issues and who think of everyone outside of the university towns as racist gammons and toxic masculinity.
It may be a lie but that is what many people hear. And the chaos monkey will target those people with soothing promises of taking them seriously.

FPTP puts Brexit in the majority in parliament. And if the wall of noise works, the tories will have a polling lead on a promise to retake parliament "for the people" and deliver their Brexit.

A lot can go wrong for them in the coming months. But they have a very clear strategy to out Farage Farage. To use Brexit as a classic wedge issue like abortion rights or gun control in the US, to break old voting patterns.

The electorate is polarising and those who embrace the polarisation are benefiting.
50% of Peterborough voters voted for Brexit means Brexit. That is pretty much a typical midlands marginal.

The chaos monkey cometh.