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Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

They tried to do this last time too tbf.
True enough, but May didn't present a coherent Brexit position against which Corbyn had to offer any real oppositional position. She was in her strong & stable/brexit means brexit mode and both parties basically got away with defusing the issue by talking about honouring the will of the people etc.

The next GE will be different.
 
True enough, but May didn't present a coherent Brexit position against which Corbyn had to offer any real oppositional position. She was in her strong & stable/brexit means brexit mode and both parties basically got away with defusing the issue by talking about honouring the will of the people etc.

The next GE will be different.
May didn't want to diffuse the issue though? It was Labour who diffused it - the tories were desperate to make it about brexit.
 
Racist fuckwits be racist fuckwits.
Well yes precisely, he is kind of letting his prejudices show here, 14 people registered to vote at one address is a sign of overcrowding not electoral fraud and a British citizen of Pakistani descent is entitled (like anyone else) to vote for whomsoever they wish.
This is a decent result for Labour not a great result since they had to throw everything they had at it to win and would have probably have lost if they hadn't. The big problem with this win is it will probably encourage them to continue with their policy of "Let's sit on the Fence and hope Brexit goes away" and I don't think they have any real hope of winning a GE with that.
It's a great result for the LD's they've quadrupled their vote share and kept their deposit in a seat where they weren't even also rans last time. Their recovery would seem to be happening about 20 years earlier than I thought it would.
Most important of all this is a shit result for the Tories, Even May going didn't give them a boost, Brexit (or lack thereof) is still tearing them apart and they still aren't in the position to deliver it.
 
Tick tock.

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And the UKs chaos monkeys:

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Urban 75:

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Absolute blinder by Corbyn, his policy of thingy ma bob and wotsit is a winner with umm some people and like ummmm nothing has changed in the UK, there is no wedge issue. Calm down and read some Marx! :mad:




Momentum or inertia. :thumbs:
 
The maths don't change in parliament regardless how brexity the new leader is, but the more brexity the tory leader is, the more space the Labour leadership have to come down off the fence. I won't pretend that kind of increased polarisation is something to look forward to, but I also don't think a mad no-deal leader is necessarily the election winning machine for the tories some of you seem to think it is.
Yeah. I think the Tories are snookered really - there are lots of remain Tories and the threat from LibDems is just as relevant as the BP insurgency
 
May didn't want to diffuse the issue though? It was Labour who diffused it - the tories were desperate to make it about brexit.
Again, yeah...but if that were the case then, it won't be possible when up against the Johnson response to farage.

The concern for the LP must be that, faced with Johnson, Brexit re-positioning will have to happen at some point if they are to offer a credible, coherent alternative and if it's left too late it will appear as reactionary rather than an expression of member/voter desires. Gonna be all very tricky, and my point today was that Peterborough may not necessarily be entirely helpful to that process.
 
Tories will be pretty shaken by this, I would think. They could face disaster in a general election. May mean they do everything they can to avoid one, of course, limping on to 2022.
 
Why are people so obsessed with opinion polls on this thread? When they’ve constantly been proved wrong over recent parliamentary elections and the situation as acknowledged by all, even here, is volatile?

The bookies had BP as hot favourites last night. That went well didn’t it. Well, yes it did for the bookies.
 
Again, yeah...but if that were the case then, it won't be possible when up against the Johnson response to farage.

The concern for the LP must be that, faced with Johnson, Brexit re-positioning will have to happen at some point if they are to offer a credible, coherent alternative and if it's left too late it will appear as reactionary rather than an expression of member/voter desires. Gonna be all very tricky, and my point today was that Peterborough may not necessarily be entirely helpful to that process.
It doesn't feel possible now, for sure. But then it didn't in 2017 either. Until it was.
 
[QUOTE="planetgeli, post: 16075733, member: 43116"

The bookies had BP as hot favourites last night. That went well didn’t it. Well, yes it did for the bookies.[/QUOTE]

The bookies had the BP as favourites because they received lumpy bets from BP types who thought they were a shoe in. They needed to lay that off by offering bets for the other parties. They weren’t predicting anything merely reflecting the market (and I imagine some BP backers lost a lot of money last night)
 
[QUOTE="planetgeli, post: 16075733, member: 43116"

The bookies had BP as hot favourites last night. That went well didn’t it. Well, yes it did for the bookies.

The bookies had the BP as favourites because they received lumpy bets from BP types who thought they were a shoe in. They needed to lay that off by offering bets for the other parties. They weren’t predicting anything merely reflecting the market (and I imagine some BP backers lost a lot of money last night)[/QUOTE]

I know. I used to be a bookie.
 
Again, yeah...but if that were the case then, it won't be possible when up against the Johnson response to farage.

The concern for the LP must be that, faced with Johnson, Brexit re-positioning will have to happen at some point if they are to offer a credible, coherent alternative and if it's left too late it will appear as reactionary rather than an expression of member/voter desires. Gonna be all very tricky, and my point today was that Peterborough may not necessarily be entirely helpful to that process.

Peterborough is very relevant. It’s relevant because it proves the non policy policy is electorally the best bet the LP has (whether it’s the right approach politically is another matter entirely).

I’d also add that Johnson, Gove or whoever wins will have almost three years to move brexit along before they need to call a GE. The one thing that unites tories at present is their determination not to have a GE. It’s perfectly plausible for a deal to have been done by then AND the debate to be about the second phase by then
 
Oh and for those saying “yeah but, Labour threw the kitchen sink at Peterborough”.

The Tories also threw Johnson and Hunt in there. And kept May away. And it still went badly for them.
 
Peterborough is very relevant. It’s relevant because it proves the non policy policy is electorally the best bet the LP has (whether it’s the right approach politically is another matter entirely).
It's not non policy. Last night shows that there is still a solid majority who vote on issues other than Brexit: there was plenty of choice for anyone motivated only, or mainly, by Brexit, but still a majority (52.3%) voted for the two parties which have not yet become single issue campaigns. That's in a core Leave area, during a tory leadership battle framed around Brexit. It really does make sense fopr the LP
 
It's not non policy. Last night shows that there is still a solid majority who vote on issues other than Brexit: there was plenty of choice for anyone motivated only, or mainly, by Brexit, but still a majority (52.3%) voted for the two parties which have not yet become single issue campaigns. That's in a core Leave area, during a tory leadership battle framed around Brexit. It really does make sense fopr the LP
.. to stick with anti-austerity general politics.

<for some reason i can reply to my post but not edit it, no idea why>
 
It's not non policy. Last night shows that there is still a solid majority who vote on issues other than Brexit: there was plenty of choice for anyone motivated only, or mainly, by Brexit, but still a majority (52.3%) voted for the two parties which have not yet become single issue campaigns. That's in a core Leave area, during a tory leadership battle framed around Brexit. It really does make sense fopr the LP
Yes, (again), but I think most would concede that the shelf-life of constructive ambiguity is limited by the impending prospect of a newly led 'single-issue' government? If the tories do go full on populist representing themselves as the only true voice of the peoples' will, the LP will have to offer something distinct.
 
Last night shows that there is still a solid majority who vote on issues other than Brexit
Not sure if this totally follows - I think a lot of the Labour votes will have been stop brexit party votes. But it does show that they can still plausibly hold things together enough with the current position (just).
 
Seems very clear that the BP candidate was some anonymous turkey and yet BP almost took the seat.Each time posters on here reflect on the need for Labour to dissemble on the issue of leave or remain I find myself wondering where they would be in the polls if they came firmly down on the side of leave.Certainly from a Midlands perspective when Labour frontbenchers are on TV enthusing about a second referendum they very much present the spectacle of a man,or woman,pissing into the wind.
 
I find myself wondering where they would be in the polls if they came firmly down on the side of leave.
The party would split, and it's currently remain leaning support would almost all fuck off elsewhere. It's unlikely they'd then be able to pick up support from leave voters to come anywhere close to replacing them.
 
Yes, (again), but I think most would concede that the shelf-life of constructive ambiguity is limited by the impending prospect of a newly led 'single-issue' government? If the tories do go full on populist representing themselves as the only true voice of the peoples' will, the LP will have to offer something distinct.
I think I accept that if the tories crown Johnson or another brexiteer they will reposition to become what they currently are not, a single issue party, probably shedding remainer MPs, members and voters in the general direction of the LibDems (or maybe anodyne Greens), but picking up votes from the BP. You appear to be saying Labour should follow onto the single issue battleground rather than simply opposing the tories on all th available battlegrounds. That way lies shedding voters..
 
The party would split, and it's currently remain leaning support would almost all fuck off elsewhere. It's unlikely they'd then be able to pick up support from leave voters to come anywhere close to replacing them.
Much of the 'machine' would grind to a halt as well.
 
I think I accept that if the tories crown Johnson or another brexiteer they will reposition to become what they currently are not, a single issue party, probably shedding remainer MPs, members and voters in the general direction of the LibDems (or maybe anodyne Greens), but picking up votes from the BP. You appear to be saying Labour should follow onto the single issue battleground rather than simply opposing the tories on all th available battlegrounds. That way lies shedding voters..
No, I don't think that's what I'm saying tbh.
I accept it's hypothetical at present, but if the tories do go full-on Halloween fundamentalism (at whatever cost) Corbyn cannot maintain with what passes for his current Brexit position. Otherwise the LDs will do enough damage to reduce the LP seat number significantly.
 
No, I don't think that's what I'm saying tbh.
I accept it's hypothetical at present, but if the tories do go full-on Halloween fundamentalism (at whatever cost) Corbyn cannot maintain with what passes for his current Brexit position. Otherwise the LDs will do enough damage to reduce the LP seat number significantly.
At the next GE he has to frame a manifesto designed to win. Until then, he's the leader of the opposition, his job is to hold the government to account, across the board.
 
At the next GE he has to frame a manifesto designed to win. Until then, he's the leader of the opposition, his job is to hold the government to account, across the board.
Yes, but an opposition presuming to govern in the present context cannot very well face the country with any ambiguity wrt the tories acting as the Nubrexit party.
 
there's so many ways that it can't happen, it makes me wonder if anyone speculating about the electoral effect of such a pivot has actually been watching the Labour Party recently.
Well it is I think safe to say that at this precise moment the Labour Party bigwigs do not themselves know which horse to back?
 
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