Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

[Pickman's model]

Well, in a democracy political parties need votes or they don't get into government, and Labour lost truck loads of votes.
I don't give a shit about the massive number the tories lost excepting the pleasure it gives me to see them flop.
Back to it. Labour came way too close to losing a seat to a brand new party, so the reasons have to be properly looked at, then sorted out. If that means losing the leader in favour of someone decent, so be it.
Much as the more left here will shout at me and probably call me a good few names. the leader of the Labour party is a useless wanker and much of the blame for this near defeat lies right at his door.
Corbyn was crap, is crap, and will be crap in the future so, if Labour is to win, he has to go.
No, before some silly fucker says it, not another popularist Blair, but the job needs someone with a likeable personality, something the glorious leader is short of.
I blame Corbyn for much of this mess - He's doing for Labour what May has done for the tories, just not as badly .... yet.

if auld corbyn's so crap how did he manage to come so close to defeating a tory party which enjoyed a lead of ~20% at the beginning of the last general election campaign?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Considering the outgoing labour MP had been forced to leave following a prison sentence, the Party will have expected a massive drop in support, and will be very happy with this result. In first past the post winning is all that counts not by how many votes

I said that up thread. My point about it’s non policy policy on brexit was a simple one. The approach allows labour to be competitive in seats like Peterborough. If the leadership had listened to remain loons like Mason they’d have lost campaign around austerity or not. It’s a simple point and I’m not sure you replied on the lines you did

 

[Gerry1time]

AV was the shittiest of alternatives, and the one that the Lib Dems calculated would be most to their advantage. It was rightfully rejected, and isn't "proportional representation". As for choosing person as well as party, that's bollocks if you're a tribal voter.

AV is shit, but technically I don't think it was voted on because of Lib Dem calculations. AV has never been the Lib Dem favourite, and my understanding was that the referendum being about AV was a compromise between the Tories and Lib Dems in order for them to agree to the referendum happening. A clever ploy on the part of the Tories, as it meant they could argue against the referendum on the grounds that AV was shit, and the Lib Dems and their activists found it hard to disagree. This lead to the referendum being lost, and the one policy area that could have helped the Lib Dems being dead and buried early on.

The degree to which the Lib Dems just stood there repeatedly shooting their own feet during the negotiations for the coalition was really quite something. There's a story of Oliver Letwin returning from the negotiations one night and just saying "I think I've just destroyed the Liberal Democrats".

 

[Smokeandsteam]

A -17% swing bears this out....

It does actually. But I know what you mean, it’s not a cause for celebration. But, in a situation where no party is getting near 40% plus (the old litmus test for winning elections) their approach might be enough to get them over the line in a SNP coalition

 

[planetgeli]

AV is shit, but technically I don't think it was voted on because of Lib Dem calculations. AV has never been the Lib Dem favourite, and my understanding was that the referendum being about AV was a compromise between the Tories and Lib Dems in order for them to agree to the referendum happening. A clever ploy on the part of the Tories, as it meant they could argue against the referendum on the grounds that AV was shit, and the Lib Dems and their activists found it hard to disagree. This lead to the referendum being lost, and the one policy area that could have helped the Lib Dems being dead and buried early on.

The degree to which the Lib Dems just stood there repeatedly shooting their own feet during the negotiations for the coalition was really quite something. There's a story of Oliver Letwin returning from the negotiations one night and just saying "I think I've just destroyed the Liberal Democrats".

Indeed, my recollection is the LDs had messed up the negotiations so badly they barely bothered campaigning on the referendum, Clegg by this time being satisfied with his five minutes of fame as deputy PM to be bothered with anything so trivial as principles.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well, in a democracy political parties need votes or they don't get into government, and Labour lost truck loads of votes.
I don't give a shit about the massive number the tories lost excepting the pleasure it gives me to see them flop.
Back to it. Labour came way too close to losing a seat to a brand new party, so the reasons have to be properly looked at, then sorted out. If that means losing the leader in favour of someone decent, so be it.
Much as the more left here will shout at me and probably call me a good few names. the leader of the Labour party is a useless wanker and much of the blame for this near defeat lies right at his door.
Corbyn was crap, is crap, and will be crap in the future so, if Labour is to win, he has to go.
No, before some silly fucker says it, not another popularist Blair, but the job needs someone with a likeable personality, something the glorious leader is short of.
I blame Corbyn for much of this mess - He's doing for Labour what May has done for the tories, just not as badly .... yet.

That's a weird conclusion to draw tbh. Labour lost some votes to the BP but nowhere near as many as the tories and clung on to an extremely marginal seat.

It's the tories who will be terrified by this result, not labour: a lab/tory marginal in a strongly leave constituency and they finished a relatively poor third. Repeated across the country, with labour holding their remain areas, perhaps losing the odd one to the libdems, while clinging on to their leave areas, and labour pinching tory leave marginals potentially with the libdems pinching tory remain marginals, BP picking up votes around the place but very few seats. Tories could end up losing a general election very badly indeed.

It's exactly this fear that led Cameron to call the referendum in the first place, of course. Which is nice.

 

[belboid]

Indeed, my recollection is the LDs had messed up the negotiations so badly they barely bothered campaigning on the referendum, Clegg by this time being satisfied with his five minutes of fame as deputy PM to be bothered with anything so trivial as principles.

Libs didn't want AV at all. It isn't actually that good for them, and will often help the party who was already ahead more. Cameron played Clegg like the fool he is and giot him to accept something he knew the majority of Libs would find unacceptable.

 

[brogdale]

I said that up thread. My point about it’s non policy policy on brexit was a simple one. The approach allows labour to be competitive in seats like Peterborough. If the leadership had listened to remain loons like Mason they’d have lost campaign around austerity or not. It’s a simple point and I’m not sure you replied on the lines you did

Yes, but (not wishing to go all Mason remainiac)...Peterborough will almost certainly be the last electoral test at which the 'non policy policy' will suffice.

 

[brogdale]

Well, in a democracy political parties need votes or they don't get into government, and Labour lost truck loads of votes.
I don't give a shit about the massive number the tories lost excepting the pleasure it gives me to see them flop.
Back to it. Labour came way too close to losing a seat to a brand new party, so the reasons have to be properly looked at, then sorted out. If that means losing the leader in favour of someone decent, so be it.
Much as the more left here will shout at me and probably call me a good few names. the leader of the Labour party is a useless wanker and much of the blame for this near defeat lies right at his door.
Corbyn was crap, is crap, and will be crap in the future so, if Labour is to win, he has to go.
No, before some silly fucker says it, not another popularist Blair, but the job needs someone with a likeable personality, something the glorious leader is short of.
I blame Corbyn for much of this mess - He's doing for Labour what May has done for the tories, just not as badly .... yet.

You were right planetgeli ; my apologies for inviting this.

 

[killer b]

Yes, but (not wishing to go all Mason remainiac)...Peterborough will almost certainly be the last electoral test at which the 'non policy policy' will suffice.

Did you listen to Andy McDonald on Today?

You should listen to the interview with Andy Macdonald on the Today programme this morning for an idea of the movement Labour is currently preparing for, assuming a no-dealer ends up in no.10 - Remain/Reform, but only as a way of avoiding no deal, with a big focus on the effect no deal would have car manufacturing, steel industry etc. It's a very enjoyable interview all in tbh, he wipes the floor with Humphreys.

 

[brogdale]

Did you listen to Andy McDonald on Today?

Just listened to it.
The crux will be to what extent Corbyn can portray what 'Johnson' goes for as the cataclysmic tory Brexit that must be opposed with remain & reform. The battle lines are already obvious; the vermin will cast the LP as the enemy of the people's will, whilst Corbyn will present 'Johnson's vermin as the wreckers.

Looks like a full-on culture wars GE.

 

[Combustible]

It's exactly this fear that led Cameron to call the referendum in the first place, of course. Which is nice.

The problem is that Cameron's solution in calling the referendum worked. He basically said, quite correctly, if you want Brexit you should not vote UKIP but vote Tory and then you'll get a referendum. Come the general election it worked, and a lot of the UKIP vote folded into the Tories. If Labour go to the next election promising a second referendum including the possibility of remaining in the EU, they are setting themselves up for the exact same thing happening again.

 

[Pickman's model]

if auld corbyn's so crap how did he manage to come so close to defeating a tory party which enjoyed a lead of ~20% at the beginning of the last general election campaign?

Don Troooomp you've gone all quiet

 

[SpackleFrog]

The problem is that Cameron's solution in calling the referendum worked. He basically said, quite correctly, if you want Brexit you should not vote UKIP but vote Tory and then you'll get a referendum. Come the general election it worked, and a lot of the UKIP vote folded into the Tories. If Labour go to the next election promising a second referendum including the possibility of remaining in the EU, they are setting themselves up for the exact same thing happening again.

Yeah Cameron had to resign a year later though don't think you've thought this through.

 

[discokermit]

Remain and reform is a lie and everyone who utters it knows it to be a lie and everyone who hears it knows it is a lie.

 

[brogdale]

Some reflections on the result from Alastair Meeks on Smithson's site:

What to make of the result? There are lots of hot takes all over the internet. So here’s a tepid take, with an assortment of observations all jumbled up in a heap. Make of them what you will.

1) No one really had a handle on what was going on
The Brexit party got backed below 1.2 on Betfair to win the by-election. They were heavy odds-on favourites, largely it seems off the back of their results in the EU elections. It’s all very well saying that their backers were far too enthusiastic but layers weren’t exactly all that much in evidence either. It turns out nobody knew anything. Remember that when reading all those hot takes. Remember it next time you’re betting too.

2) Especially not Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage turned up triumphantly for the count, only to slip out of a side door once it became apparent that his party had lost. That minor humiliation can be brushed off, but much more concerning for the Brexit party is that they did not have a handle on their own support. The Brexit party’s ground game needs a lot of work.

This is unsurprising for a new party. We saw this at the Newark by-election in 2014, where UKIP transparently had no idea where their voters were. In a first-past-the-post system, knowing who your voters are and getting them out is important.

3) Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and only 51% of the vote in Peterborough in 2019
Hat tip to Matthew Goodwin for pointing this out, as linked to above. This implies a 10% swing from Leave to Remain if taken on a naive basis, implying a 58:42 Remain lead nationally at present. That is ahead of most current opinion polls, which show a smaller Remain lead.

Remain optimists will take this at face value and see this as evidence that Britain is turning its back on Brexit. Leave optimists will argue that this reflects Labour’s superior ground game and the silent majority of voters break heavily in their favour. Or perhaps it is somewhere in the middle. Pick your preference.

4) Leave secured 60.9% of the vote in Peterborough in 2016 and the Brexit party secured 28.9% in 2019
That implies the Brexit party are tallying just under half of the Leave vote, which in turn implies that they are getting somewhere around the 24-25% mark nationally. However, in the special circumstances of a by-election, you would expect a party with momentum to do rather better than their actual polling as voters choose to send a message. I’d knock quite a few percent off that notional national polling, given that.

5) But Peterborough was not, even though a strongly Leave-voting seat, particularly promising ground for the Brexit party
The excellent analysis by Chaminda Jayanetti linked to above shows that while the Brexit party did well among Leave voters across the country in the EU elections, it did less well in urban, ethnically diverse places and best in southern English suburbs and market towns. It is a party that appeals most of all to affluent reactionaries. They are not particularly in evidence in Peterborough.

The Brexit party are doing well, but their supporters are getting ahead of themselves. Success is performance minus anticipation. On that basis, this was a poor result for the Brexit party. They need to work on both halves of that equation.

6) It was a terrible night for the Conservatives
They have been eclipsed among Leave voters by the Brexit party. The chief mystery is who is voting for them at present. What is it that they have to offer to anyone? Don’t tweet me, please.

7) This was a really good result for Labour
The circumstances of the by-election were sub-optimal, to put it mildly. The previous MP had been ousted after being convicted of a serious criminal offence. Their new candidate ran into trouble. They faced an opponent with their tails up after success in the EU elections. But they won.

Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters are crowing and they are right to do so. Yes, their vote share dropped but they increased their majority. It’s about relative performance not absolute performance and this by-election suggests that in some seats at least they are well-placed to benefit from a more fragmented electorate.

8) Reported candidate quality was once again an inverse predictor of success at the by-election
Lisa Forbes, the Labour candidate had odium poured on her for some unsavoury online activity and she had to agree to deepen her understanding of anti-Semitism. The Brexit party candidate received widespread acclaim as a local businessman made good. The Conservative candidate also got good reviews.

It seems that when parties stress the quality of the candidate they are often masking other weaknesses in their offering that are more important to the electorate. That’s something to remember in the future next time a party boasts of their excellent by-election candidate.
​

Point 3 reading a 10% L -> R swing (2016 to 2019) implies a greater change of mind than shown by the latest polling.

 

[Combustible]

Yeah Cameron had to resign a year later though don't think you've thought this through.

Promising a referendum worked for him in helping to win a majority. He came undone because he thought he thought remain would win.

 

[Teaboy]

It turns out nobody knew anything.

I feel this will be the primary conclusion future historians draw when they are trying to make sense of the times we live through now.

 

[killer b]

Remain and reform is a lie and everyone who utters it knows it to be a lie and everyone who hears it knows it is a lie.

It is, but so is every other option. And not everyone knows it's a lie.

 

[belboid]

Promising a referendum worked for him in helping to win a majority. He came undone because he thought he thought remain would win.

He only agreed that manifesto to appease the right and because he was sure they wouldn't win a majority. The Lib-Dems would veto a referendum and it wouldn't be his fault. he came undone because he treated people like ignorant cattle fodder.

 

[killer b]

Point 3 reading a 10% L -> R swing (2016 to 2019) implies a greater change of mind than shown by the latest polling.

it also assumes all labour voters are remain... which they aren't.

 

[Duncan2]

He only agreed that manifesto to appease the right and because he was sure they wouldn't win a majority. The Lib-Dems would veto a referendum and it wouldn't be his fault. he came undone because he treated people like ignorant cattle fodder.

and fucked a pig (allegedly)

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Remain and reform is a lie and everyone who utters it knows it to be a lie and everyone who hears it knows it is a lie.

Spot on. It’s a nonsense, a lie and Mason and gang should be called out (and McDonnell and Corbyn if and when they sign up to the lie) every time they advance this preposterous shite.

In the meantime perhaps they can explain how the treatment of democratically elected Catalan MEPs is in keeping with their vision of the sunny uplands of the EU single market project

 

[discokermit]

And not everyone knows it's a lie.

they do.

 

[Combustible]

He only agreed that manifesto to appease the right and because he was sure they wouldn't win a majority. The Lib-Dems would veto a referendum and it wouldn't be his fault. he came undone because he treated people like ignorant cattle fodder.

Sure, you could also say that he became undone by winning a majority. My point was that by promising a referendum, Cameron was able to undermine UKIP in the 2015 election because he could point out that the best way to get Brexit was not to vote UKIP, but to vote Tory, which turned out to be true (even if he didn't actually expect to win a majority and implement it). Similarly if Labour go into the next election promising to undo Brexit or offer a second referendum which could undo Brexit, then the Tories can make similar appeal to current Brexit party voters, vote Tory to ensure Brexit.

 

[Duncan2]

Sure, you could also say that he became undone by winning a majority. My point was that by promising a referendum, Cameron was able to undermine UKIP in the 2015 election because he could point out that the best way to get Brexit was not to vote UKIP, but to vote Tory, which turned out to be true (even if he didn't actually expect to win a majority and implement it). Similarly if Labour go into the next election promising to undo Brexit or offer a second referendum which could undo Brexit, then the Tories can make similar appeal to current Brexit party voters, vote Tory to ensure Brexit.

This is true Macdonald speaks of staring down the barrel of no deal but staring down the barrel of no Brexit is ultimately going to end the Labour Party's hopes of winning a GE with an overall majority.

 

[Mr Moose]

It is, but so is every other option. And not everyone knows it's a lie.

You could be kind and say that every possibility, Remain/Reform, Leave/Meaningfully Lexit, has a very slim chance.

 

[Mr Moose]

if auld corbyn's so crap how did he manage to come so close to defeating a tory party which enjoyed a lead of ~20% at the beginning of the last general election campaign?

Well Theresa May was staggeringly, like off the scale crap. Corbyn could exploit that. Chances of the next Tory leader being as crap? Er, well not bad actually.

 

[Dogsauce]

Trouble for Labour will come if the Lib Dems get Swinson as leader, which currently looks likely. She’s quite personable/down to earth and will mop up the mumsnet / urban professional votes in cities. Think she has some dodgy voting on social/equality though (like quite a few of them, secret or not so secret god botherers) so that could be a brake on things if exposed. Taking over a party in better shape and I think without baggage from the coalition era (unlike ‘Sir’ Ed Davey). Labour might have to fight for this territory as well as trying to keep some leave voters onboard. Guess it’ll be the same problem for the tories.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Listening to the news today, as well as some on here, I hadn't realised that Labour actually increased it's majority in a highly marginal seat...but it did...and it did so in circumstances definitely not of it's own choosing.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice