binka
!!!!!!!!!
You'd win about 70p!
Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019
- Thread starter PR1Berske
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
You are over 24 hours early asking that.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh. You know odds work by the way people put money on, not some genuine probability, right?
extra dry
Happy to be here
When's the result...i can always catch up, your right it is today/torrow.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
andysays
Love and solidarity
Generally the result comes after the votes have been counted, but in the Alice in Wonderland world we seem to be inhabiting I guess "result first, voting afterwards" is perfectly reasonable
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Bexit Party with an emphatic win, so whichever Tory pillock replaces May takes that as a sign to out-Ukip the new Ukip. Cos that worked out so well last time...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Err, yes, but people tend to place bets based on whatever information is available, such as polls & the recent Euro election results in this case.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Should have stopped after yes really. Obviously people place bets based on information. But past performance no guarantee of future success as those unfortunate enough to back the fancied telecaster in the derby can confirm.
regardless how the Lib Dems may be doing nationally, they got 1500 votes in Peterborough 2017. Labour and the tories got 22,000 each - there's no real chance of them getting anywhere within touching distance.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
We live in crazy times, and by-elections, like Euro elections, tend to be treated as a chance to register a protest vote.
Around here, in the 2017 GE - the LDs were third, a fucking long way behind the Tories & Labour - in the recent Euro elections - the LD were second, and well ahead of both the Tories & Labour.
Not much unlike what happened in Peterborough...
andysays
Love and solidarity
Peterborough was majority Leave (can't remember exactly how large a majority) which suggests to me that LibDems won't be the protest vote of choice for the majority.
colacubes
Mr Hot Cookie
60.9% so unlikely the Lib Dems would turn that over.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Maybe the People's Vote people are right and everyone understands much better now what the issues are and maybe the Lib Dems will romp home with a glorious zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Of course, there's a very good chance the Brexit Party could win this, but there's also a reasonable chance that the LDs will come second, as leave & remain voters both go with their protest votes, as they did 2 weeks ago, resulting in a collapse of votes for both the Tories & Labour.
At no point have I suggested the LDs could win this, just come second.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Fair enough
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I think LD will get to keep their deposit this time round but can't see them winning, even coming second will be a major achievement.
If you asked me before the LE's and EU elections I would have reckoned Labour by the skin of their teeth as the Cult of Farage takes more
voters off the Tories than them. Now I think there is a real chance that the Cultists can win it and God help us all.
There is no way that Labour will be able to spin that as anything other than a catastrophe for them and the Tories will just go full Brexity
If you asked me before the LE's and EU elections I would have reckoned Labour by the skin of their teeth as the Cult of Farage takes more
voters off the Tories than them. Now I think there is a real chance that the Cultists can win it and God help us all.
There is no way that Labour will be able to spin that as anything other than a catastrophe for them and the Tories will just go full Brexity
The council boundaries are different to the Westminster seat boundaries, taking in a big chunk of a safe Tory seat where until recently the lib dems were a strong second, which makes it difficult to draw any conclusions from the EU vote.
Either way, the calculations the voters of Peterborough will be making tomorrow are different to the calculations they made last week - the need to stop Farage will concentrate minds, and labour are the most likely beneficiary of that.
There could be a seismic shift to the lib dems, but if there is no-one had picked up on it - even the guardian, who would fucking love it and be talking it up massively if there was any chance, are expecting labour to squeeze the lib dem vote rather than the other way round.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Mark my words, it will all end in tears
hash tag
Books, not bombs
Mike Greene, former bankrupt millionaire, property developer and television personality (oh and life long tory), who never wanted to get in to politics. Remind you of anyone?
Brexit party’s MP candidate under fire for freehold profiteering
Brexit party’s MP candidate under fire for freehold profiteering
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Better to be the kingmaker than risk abject failure.
Argonia
Happy go licky
She's too busy being the latest incarnation of Jesus. Busy performing miracles.
Looks like shoe-in though. Reckon he's regretting it now?
I imagine God has greater plans to reward her suffering (just like Jesus did and stuff).
Farage would galvanise the opposition much more than a 'local businessman' will - more chance of winning this way.
mauvais
on reddit or something
Yeah, but she could have got her brother to run for her.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Yes. Plus a defeat for Farage at this stage kills the BP momentum (much as is it did with UKIP). Lessons have clearly been learned.
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