Peterborough by-election, 6 June 2019

[cupid_stunt]

And, the BBC...

Nigel Farage said his new Brexit Party would contest the by-election, but a spokesman said no decision had yet been taken on whether Mr Farage would be the candidate.
MP first to be ousted under recall rules

It would seem a no brainer for him to stand, just for the publicity it would generate, as he does love the attention.

 

[MickiQ]

And, the BBC...



It would seem a no brainer for him to stand, just for the publicity it would generate, as he does love the attention.

Good, Tory Central must be bricking it at the thought. Unlike Chucky Cheesey, Farage has some serious name recognition and is more than capable of taking more votes off them than the Chuka's could take off Labour

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This will be an important by-election. It will be noteworthy for one reason - the extent to which both establishment parties haemorrhage support to insurgent parties. Of course a by-election isn’t the same normally as a GE but then we no longer live in normal political times.

 

[andysays]

And, the BBC...



It would seem a no brainer for him to stand, just for the publicity it would generate, as he does love the attention.

The by election is after the European elections though, isn't it?

Can he (can anyone) stand in both?

 

[Teaboy]

Good to see this recall happening after the shit with Paisley Jnr. I think had this one not come about then the whole idea would have lost credibility and would have been quietly binned.

Apparently the area was something like 60% leave so I would anticipate both Labour and the tories putting a pro-leave candidate up. I don't think they'll be much in it for the other parties apart from the side show which is Farage. It would be great to see him not elected again.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The by election is after the European elections though, isn't it?

Can he (can anyone) stand in both?

Yes, and IIRC yes.

I am sure Caroline Lucas was a sitting MEP when she then got elected as an MP.

 

[colacubes]

The by election is after the European elections though, isn't it?

Can he (can anyone) stand in both?

He can certainly stand in both. Assuming he won and became an MEP and then won the subsequent by-election he'd have to stand down as an MEP.

 

[colacubes]

Yes, and IIRC yes.

I am sure Caroline Lucas was a sitting MEP when she then got elected as an MP.

Yep. She resigned as an MEP when she won.

 

[andysays]

Thanks both

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

This will be an important by-election. It will be noteworthy for one reason - the extent to which both establishment parties haemorrhage support to insurgent parties. Of course a by-election isn’t the same normally as a GE but then we no longer live in normal political times.

If Change UK put up a candidate I reckon they'll lose their deposit.

 

[butchersapron]

The by election is after the European elections though, isn't it?

Can he (can anyone) stand in both?

He cannot be both - he can easily enough stand down as an MEP if elected. But may not need to, after 18th april the parliament stood down. Not sure if that means they no longer are MEPs though.

In fact, they now seem to be 'candidates' - see the upcoming 'leading candidates debate' in the chamber - which seems a bit of a mess/joke.

 

[cupid_stunt]

He can certainly stand in both. Assuming he won and became an MEP and then won the subsequent by-election he'd have to stand down as an MEP.

Indeed.

But, he may think he could ride the gravy train longer as an MP rather than an MEP.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If Change UK put up a candidate I reckon they'll lose their deposit.

I hope so.

 

[andysays]

So my next question is, if an MEP stands down on becoming an MP, are they replaced and if so how? Do they have another by election, or is another person appointed of the party list that was used in the original election, or something else?

 

[cupid_stunt]

So my next question is, if an MEP stands down on becoming an MP, are they replaced and if so how? Do they have another by election, or is another person appointed of the party list that was used in the original election, or something else?

The next on the party list gets first choice, then they work down the list if they don't take it.

 

[killer b]

Yeah, next on the list. Afzal Khan was one of the MEPs for the north-west until he became MP for Gorton.

I don't totally understand why this doesn't happen when an MEP leaves a party though.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah, next on the list. Afzal Khan was one of the MEPs for the north-west until he became MP for Gorton.

I don't totally understand why this doesn't happen when an MEP leaves a party though.

Tories have appointed people down the list a few times.

On leaving the party but not losing the seat, i suppose it's because the system we have chosen to use for europe is inbetween the more common closed list/party votes that others on the continent have adopted and a system of personal votes, so anyone elected from UK can argue they have a personal mandate not just a party one. The system of party voting with closed lists is a recipe for total bureaucratic corruption and even more unaccountable than our own shit-show btw Which is why i think the EU prefers it.

 

[The39thStep]

This will be an important by-election. It will be noteworthy for one reason - the extent to which both establishment parties haemorrhage support to insurgent parties. Of course a by-election isn’t the same normally as a GE but then we no longer live in normal political times.

I think The Brexit Party could well take more Labour votes than Change UK in Peterborough

 

[MickiQ]

Labour & Conservatives got 95% of the vote between them in 2017 so they are the only places votes can be taken from, it is going to
come down to which of the pair loses more.
Despite all the fanfare the Chuka's started with, they have worked hard at making themselves totally irrelevant ever since and now
they are between the devil and the deep blue sea. Don't run and they get accused of being chicken, Run and risk being humiliated
They don't need to win but they need to do well and keep their deposit. They have no chance of doing the first and not a lot of
doing the second.
Onasanya herself (if she stands) is going to muddy the water and might hurt Labour a little bit but not much.
Both main parties (I no longer count the LibDems as such) really need to win this seat and will no doubt fight dirty over it.
The Brexit Party may very well end up being key to this, any candidate they put up is going to take some votes from Labour but
likely more from the Tories probably more than enough to offset any losses to CUK.
If Farage stands then all bets are off he will take loads of votes off both of them especially the Tories. I don't think he will win (but he might)
There is a good chance he might even push Tories into 3rd place which is another nail in May's already secure coffin lid.
Farage running increases the chance of a Labour victory which he probably doesn't want but he's too egotistic to think about that.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think The Brexit Party could well take more Labour votes than Change UK in Peterborough

The problem for Labour is a stark one. Whilst the Starmer position keeps their MP's more or less together, in an election it gives neither side what they want. The Brexit Party will obviously be the recipient of Labour voters who had wrongly assumed that the referendum result would be acted upon. The questions therefore are a) how many of these voters are there in Peterborough and b) will Tory and Labour defectors combined be enough overturn the narrow Labour majority.

 

[marty21]

He can certainly stand in both. Assuming he won and became an MEP and then won the subsequent by-election he'd have to stand down as an MEP.

Less money for him as an MP than as a MEP ?

 

[killer b]

Less money for him as an MP than as a MEP ?

The idea that Farage is motivated by the wage he can earn in the EP or westminster is quite a silly one.

 

[Pickman's model]

Labour & Conservatives got 95% of the vote between them in 2017 so they are the only places votes can be taken from

yeh cos obvs the 33.3% who didn't vote then won't vote now

 

[colacubes]

Less money for him as an MP than as a MEP ?

A little bit. MEPs get about £7k more. I imagine that cut in pay would be fine for him given the opportunity to behave like a complete arse in the House of Commons.

 

[MickiQ]

yeh cos obvs the 33.3% who didn't vote then won't vote now

I'm assuming that those who didn't vote last time would divide alongst roughly the same lines as the ones who did. 67% is a big enough sample size to make that a good but not absolute assumption.

 

[Argonia]

Is Onasanya definitely standing?

 

[colacubes]

Is Onasanya definitely standing?

She hasn't said yet either way. She can under the rules if she wants. Would be slightly bonkers if she did, but given everything that's led up to it, I wouldn't be surprised if she does.

 

[Argonia]

She thinks she's Jesus and Moses so god knows what she's capable of from here on in.

 

[killer b]

Galloway is standing though. Looks to be a field crowded with maniacs.

 

[DotCommunist]

I spotted that he had thrown his fedora into the ring. Last time Farage stood was south thanet, I recall the Cons thew loads of money at defeating ukip, in breach of the rules.