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Ministers target July 4th for reopening of England’s pubs and restaurants

I think they've been getting cold feet about some of their relaxations for some time. Diminishing cases here, elsewhere in Europe and in places like New York made it possible to sustain a certain degree of optimism for a time, buoyed further when the whole of summer lay ahead of us. But then the USA and then certain parts of europe and some of the UKs own data started to renew the various causes for concern, and autumn/winter started to seem much closer.

I didnt have a problem with Whitty when he described how countries were learning what relaxations they could get away with, and doing this over a summer was a better idea than waiting till winter when the virus is likely to have several transmission advantages. I didnt know how much we could get away with and a bunch of the stuff they've tried would not have raised objections from me. Exceptions to this for me are the shitty ways they've tried to force people back to work, ongoing failings in other parts of the system, and I was never comfortable about the pubs reopening. Which doesnt necessarily mean I wouldnt have done it, as opportunities to give people something like that for a time in the summer seems kind of important if you are going to ask people to give up various things again later on.
 

I have a vague sense that they've only gone ahead with pausing this now because they think they will have to reactivate it later and if they dont pause it now the opportunity to pause it at any stage in 2020 might pass by. I have not yet tried to form a sense of how risky I think this is, the timing doesnt seem ideal, maybe they should have hit pause on this a bit earlier and then have been ready to end the pause earlier than they now will.
 
I think they've been getting cold feet about some of their relaxations for some time. Diminishing cases here, elsewhere in Europe and in places like New York made it possible to sustain a certain degree of optimism for a time, buoyed further when the whole of summer lay ahead of us. But then the USA and then certain parts of europe and some of the UKs own data started to renew the various causes for concern, and autumn/winter started to seem much closer.

I didnt have a problem with Whitty when he described how countries were learning what relaxations they could get away with, and doing this over a summer was a better idea than waiting till winter when the virus is likely to have several transmission advantages. I didnt know how much we could get away with and a bunch of the stuff they've tried would not have raised objections from me. Exceptions to this for me are the shitty ways they've tried to force people back to work, ongoing failings in other parts of the system, and I was never comfortable about the pubs reopening. Which doesnt necessarily mean I wouldnt have done it, as opportunities to give people something like that for a time in the summer seems kind of important if you are going to ask people to give up various things again later on.

Very hard to see how (short of a vaccine by then) that this winter isn't going to be a series of local and possible national lockdowns as infections go up all over.
 
William of Walworth said:
Link?
Just asking, not defending the way pubs have opened -- and it would be interesting to know what they might be 'planning' and how .....

BBC radio just now

OK, fair dos, there was also something recently on BBC 24 News on TV not long ago.

Alyson Pollard (?) from University of Newcastle (I think) was reacting, and saying that it shouldn't be a matter of closure competetions between pubs and schools, the focus should much more be on sorting out (and localising) testing and tracing. She made sense ....

But all this is just a talking point so far .....
 
OK, fair dos, there was also something recently on BBC 24 News on TV not long ago.

Alyson Pollard (?) from University of Newcastle (I think) was reacting, and saying that it shouldn't be a matter of closure competetions between pubs and schools, the focus should much more be on sorting out (and localising) testing and tracing. She made sense ....

But all this is just a talking point so far .....

Theres a neat and convenient version of reality where lockdown and other draconian stuff is an emergency handbrake of last resort, and where other stuff, if done well enough, can avoid the need for such draconian measures. I have, on occasion, contributed to this perception. But I believe the limits to how far this idea can be stretched are never far away, and this matters a lot.

The obvious example is that there are limits to every countries contact tracing capacity - even countries with world-class systems cannot operate them effectively beyond certain sizes of outbreaks. So the system itself needs to be able to get results that keep its work down to a certain size, and if things slip beyond that point then something else will have to be done. And the contact tracing itself will yield valuable data about how the infection is spreading, and sometimes that data will tell you that something is such a concern that broader draconian measures are needed to bring that aspect under control. So in this latter scenario, the contact tracing doesnt end up being a simple alternative to other measures, its the thing that ends up telling us that the other measures, to eliminate that particular vector of transmission, are required.
 
And as I've said before, a large factor that seems to be the problem currently with T&T is the human one. The system not being run properly by pubs etc., and then people not answering their phones, and sometimes when they do refusing to agree to self isolate. Complex reasons why we're in that situation, but it's hard to know how to fix.
 
And as I've said before, a large factor that seems to be the problem currently with T&T is the human one. The system not being run properly by pubs etc., and then people not answering their phones, and sometimes when they do refusing to agree to self isolate. Complex reasons why we're in that situation, but it's hard to know how to fix.
Locally run contact tracing might help.
 
Locally run contact tracing might help.

I have no idea if it would, and have no knowledge if there's any planning for that. When you say 'locally run' though what do you mean btw? Councils? Local NHS Trusts, something else?
 
And as I've said before, a large factor that seems to be the problem currently with T&T is the human one. The system not being run properly by pubs etc., and then people not answering their phones, and sometimes when they do refusing to agree to self isolate. Complex reasons why we're in that situation, but it's hard to know how to fix.
People need to be paid to isolate or it just isn't affordable for many.
 
TBH my local council is so completely inefficient and incompetent I'm no sure I'd trust them to do anything.

There is that.

Here’s a report quoting Blackburn’s public health director. I seem to remember him complaining on Twitter a while ago about a refusal to pass contact tracing information on to him for people who the national service had failed to reach. I‘m not sure whether this has been resolved.

England's contact tracers have only reached about 50% of people who have been in close contact with someone with Covid-19 in an area of Lancashire where new cases are rising.

The figure was revealed by Prof Dominic Harrison, public health director of Blackburn with Darwen Council.

He warned of "exponential growth" of new infections if the system did not become more efficient.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Broadcasting House programme, Prof Harrison said that Blackburn with Darwen in Lancashire, which he oversees, faces a "rising tide" of infections.

"The key issue here is that 40% of people who are infected by someone with Covid-19 who goes for tests because they have symptoms, will be infected by them before they have those symptoms," said Prof Harrison.

"So, there's a 48 hour window which is critical to get the contacts of the first case contacted, and if we don't get them contacted, and if they don't then get tested and self-isolated, and they then have symptoms, we do risk the spread progressing."
Prof Harrison called for testing and tracing to be carried out at a local rather than national level, and for Public Health England to share more data with local authorities.

Prof Harrison said PHE had only begun sharing data about the postcode areas in which new infections were being registered on 29 June.

"That has made a great difference in three weeks for us in being able to identify what our local outbreak issue is," he said.

"Had we had that data much earlier in this pandemic, I think we could have made progress much more rapidly."

 
Problem with track and testing, as with other measures, you’re expecting the people who carry it out to do something very different from their normal job with little or no training, so there are bound to be problems getting it to work

You mean the people doing the calling? They get training, and it's really not a complicated job mostly. A lot is computer algorithm/flowchart based. And the people I know doing it are all NHS staff, mostly nurses.
 
This recent stuff about Sandwell is probably a good way of examining local contract tracing. And yes they do get data now, although whether it is always detailed and timely enough is another matter.

#15,539

I know my county, Warwickshire, is one of those that have long been signed up as some sort of 'beacon' initiative to do with various aspects of the localised approach. There are plenty of others who are part of the same scheme. Most of the paperwork I've seen relating to this is pretty dull but if I find anything that adds to this angle I'll post it anyway.
 
You mean the people doing the calling? They get training, and it's really not a hard job. It's all computer algorithm/flowchart based. And the people I know doing it are all NHS staff, mostly nurses.
No, I was talking about people like me, expected to do a completely different job to what we’re trained for, just so we can keep open, and one of those is tracking all of our customers who make contact by coming into our hubs and offices.
 
No, I was talking about people like me, expected to do a completely different job to what we’re trained for, just so we can keep open, and one of those is tracking all of our customers who make contact by coming into our hubs and offices.

Ah, I see what you meant. Are they supposed to fill a form in when they arrive then? Is it a condition of use?
 
Are they supposed to fill a form in when they arrive then? Is it a condition of use?
We’re supposed to ask them and write it down as we can’t take anything off the customer. So even if they don’t come in and we can’t help them, we still have to gather details, but you try getting a name, phone number, house number and postcode off an angry and confused homeless drug addict who’s having a nervous breakdown.
 
This recent stuff about Sandwell is probably a good way of examining local contract tracing. And yes they do get data now, although whether it is always detailed and timely enough is another matter.

#15,539

I know my county, Warwickshire, is one of those that have long been signed up as some sort of 'beacon' initiative to do with various aspects of the localised approach. There are plenty of others who are part of the same scheme. Most of the paperwork I've seen relating to this is pretty dull but if I find anything that adds to this angle I'll post it anyway.

Another report about Sandwell:
 
I'm vaguely impressed that there havent been more stories like this one yet, although one is still too many for my liking.

The first minister has warned the number of coronavirus cases linked to an Aberdeen pub is expected to rise from its current total of 27.

Nicola Sturgeon also revealed 15 of Scotland's new 23 positive cases were detected by NHS Grampian.

The cluster, linked to people who visited the Hawthorn Bar on 26 July, emerged on Sunday.

Two staff members have tested positive for Covid-19 and the pub has closed "as a precautionary step" for 14 days.

The first minister confirmed 120 contacts have been identified through the test and protect system.

 
I'm in a cafe in a garden centre. Staff all masked, socially distanced tables...and a whole host of silly old bastards wandering through the indoor bit with no masks and not social distancing. Selfish cunts.
 
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