Holyrood elections May 2021

[danny la rouge]

If Independence is achieved, what would that do for the main parties , would the indy vote go back to Scottish Labour/Tories/Libdems? Would the SNP continue ? Would it still be a viable party?

The SNP would continue. It will form the first post Indy government. Would it survive after that? It’s long been supposed not. But I’m not so sure. If you look at the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, support for independence is associated with what they term “liberal” social attitudes. Left of centre, non authoritarian, pro LGBT rights, etc. If you hold those social attitudes in Scotland, you’re more likely to be pro independence. So there is room for a party in that “progressive” space.

The Unionist side on the other hand is split. You can see the more “liberal” unionist parties struggle. Pro Union sentiment is more associated with a more small c conservative outlook. And so the Tories may survive post Indy, but I think it’s the pro UK “progressives” that will realign rather than the far stronger pro Indy “progressive” side.

 

[danny la rouge]

Keep an eye on Aberdeenshire West. If the Tories hold this (and with tactical voting it’s expected they will), then there won’t be an outright majority for the SNP. (Unless weird stuff happens in the lists. Which it won’t because of split ticket voting).

So we will know from that result if it’s an SNP-Green pro indyref2 majority.

 

[Sue]

The SNP would continue. It will form the first post Indy government. Would it survive after that? It’s long been supposed not. But I’m not so sure. If you look at the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey, support for independence is associated with what they term “liberal” social attitudes. Left of centre, non authoritarian, pro LGBT rights, etc. If you hold those social attitudes in Scotland, you’re more likely to be pro independence. So there is room for a party in that “progressive” space.

The Unionist side on the other hand is split. You can see the more “liberal” unionist parties struggle. Pro Union sentiment is more associated with a more small c conservative outlook. And so the Tories may survive post Indy, but I think it’s the pro UK “progressives” that will realign rather than the far stronger pro Indy “progressive” side.

Interesting. I guess I look at people I know who've coalesced around the SNP as a means to an end. I think once that end's been achieved, they'll move elsewhere. Where to won't happen immediately but after that, think there's all to play for.

Sure though about the unionist side. Lots of very strange bedfellows and if the unionist project fails, again, all to play for.

(Obviously you're way closer to this than I am -- guess I'm just going on my impressions from friends and family. )

 

[danny la rouge]

Interesting. I guess I look at people I know who've coalesced around the SNP as a means to an end. I think once that end's been achieved, they'll move elsewhere. Where to won't happen immediately but after that, think there's all to play for.

Sure though about the unionist side. Lots of very strange bedfellows and if the unionist project fails, again, all to play for.

(Obviously you're way closer to this than I am -- guess I'm just going on my impressions from friends and family. )

Yeah, I’m not sure being close is a help. If I was to guess from my friends and family I’d get a different picture (that everyone will vote Green or a far left party). The SSAS suggests - weirdly! - that my friends and family are not representative.

 

[steeplejack]

“At that moment
You heard no noise
The ruin was within”

Eck is not favouring the count with his presence today, instead “working at party headquarters” (translation : parping sadly on his Strichen sofa whilst listlessly watching re-repeats of Crown Court on UK Gold 2)

 

[Sue]

BBC reporting that Galloway's party (whatever it's called) are so far polling very low and nowhere near a list seat. (Not unexpected but cheering nonetheless.)

Oh, and the Scottish Tories are apparently starting to turn on Dross.

 

[danny la rouge]

BBC reporting that Galloway's party (whatever it's called) are so far polling very low and nowhere near a list seat. (Not unexpected but cheering nonetheless.)

Oh, and the Scottish Tories are apparently starting to turn on Dross.

All good.

 

[steeplejack]

A quick swatch of Ballot Box Scotland’s twitter feed shows “Alba” polling 1.7-3% on lists, and Galloway’s Union of Chancers & Carpetbaggers at 0.7-1.7%. Shouty, seat-averse irrelevancies.

Night night lads.

 

[geminisnake]

If Independence is achieved, what would that do for the main parties , would the indy vote go back to Scottish Labour/Tories/Libdems? Would the SNP continue ? Would it still be a viable party?

There is no such parties as Scottish Labour, it's a branch, Scottish Tories/Unionists, another branch, dunno about LibDums, never checked, don't care. I think the only Scottish registered parties are the Greens and the SNP so who knows what will happen

That was the last time I hold my nose and vote SNP. If we don't get Indy in the next 5 yrs I'm done voting for dicks in suits

 

[danny la rouge]

SNP now on 50 seats. Worth remembering: when Labour last led the administration in Holyrood (under Jack McConnell, 2003-2007), they did so with 50 MSPs.

 

[marty21]

There is no such parties as Scottish Labour, it's a branch, Scottish Tories/Unionists, another branch, dunno about LibDums, never checked, don't care. I think the only Scottish registered parties are the Greens and the SNP so who knows what will happen

That was the last time I hold my nose and vote SNP. If we don't get Indy in the next 5 yrs I'm done voting for dicks in suits

I'm talking about post independence .

 

[Sue]

Tories hold Galloway. As expected.

 

[steeplejack]

Tories hold Galloway.

on what charges?

 

[steeplejack]

No matter the result, no matter the circumstances, you can always be sure of a long-winded, pseudo-intellectual take from the eminently self-regarding Bella Caledonia

 

[steeplejack]

SNP win in Clydesdale and are now on 55 seats. Oh, and this:



We really need the old MATB violin smiley on here.

 

[steeplejack]

Meanwhile at "party HQ" crisis talks for Alba, Eck wonders if farts can be detected over the internet whilst Barrhead Boy attempts to teleport to another dimension, after binge-watching a box set of The Tomorrow People.



(I'm sorry, it's childish, no more captions / photos of the Yesterday People looking glum).

 

[danny la rouge]

Aberdeenshire West held by Tories.

 

[steeplejack]

Tories hold Aberdeenshire West where snobby big landowner & multimillionaire Alasdair Burnett continues to be the unflushable turd. The Tories propped up by collapsing Liberal Democrat votes.

 

[Sue]

Still waiting for Glasgow Kelvin. I blame danny la rouge. And my sister.

 

[danny la rouge]

Still waiting for Glasgow Kelvin. I blame danny la rouge. And my sister.

I know! What’s the deal? The constituency clips part of the City Centre. I can walk to the Emirates stadium (where the count is) without being out of breath!

 

[Sue]

I know! What’s the deal? The constituency clips part of the City Centre. I can walk to the Emirates stadium (where the count is) without being out of breath!

My sister says maybe it's because it's close and they're recounting but think that's just because she wants Patrick Harvie to win.

 

[danny la rouge]

My sister says maybe it's because it's close and they're recounting but think that's just because she wants Patrick Harvie to win.

He was second last time but not that close. I would doubt a recount. But having said that there were many more Green window posters than anything else. Very few SNP.

 

[danny la rouge]

BBC forecasting only 4 Lib Dem MSPs. That will lose them group status in Holyrood. They should be heard less of in the media, as the Greens will have more than double their numbers and will be the fourth party.

 

[danny la rouge]

Kelvin called. SNP hold. Comfortably.

 

[JTG]

BBC forecasting only 4 Lib Dem MSPs. That will lose them group status in Holyrood. They should be heard less of in the media, as the Greens will have more than double their numbers and will be the fourth party.

What will they be then? Just four guys hanging out & shooting the shit?

 

[steeplejack]

What will they be then? Just four guys hanging out & shooting the shit?

four iron filings without a magnet

 

[danny la rouge]

What will they be then? Just four guys hanging out & shooting the shit?

Irrelevant. They’ll be irrelevant.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Irrelevant. They’ll be irrelevant.

An irrelevancy of Lib Dems.

 

[weepiper]

First woman of colour to be elected to the parliament elected to a constituency seat too (Glasgow Kelvin)

 

[danny la rouge]

First woman of colour to be elected to the parliament elected to a constituency seat too (Glasgow Kelvin)

Yup. My constituency MSP.

She’ll be getting emails.