2016 Holyrood Election Thread: polling, coverage, issues.
- Thread starter danny la rouge
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
All Corbyn's fault Bernie
danny la rouge
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B
The strange death of Labour Scotland – video
Best place to understand the switch is John Harris' film made during the GE '15 campaign:
The strange death of Labour Scotland – video
danny la rouge
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Some SNP supporters have done themselves no favours, though.
danny la rouge
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It's not clear that that has happened. But it is clear that what lost the SNP their majority is the Tories gaining 4 constituency seats. (Rather than the paranoid nonsense about RISE splitting the regional votes: RISE did even worse than the nothing at all that was predicted).
Saw something on tweeters about them and solidarity combined getting less than Galloway last time out.
danny la rouge
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I've been looking at the results, and I don't think this is what's happened at all, although I can see how both the apparently mirrored gains/losses and the explanatory narrative make that a tempting analysis.
Look at the constituency seats:
The Tories have regained their former rural heartlands in the South and the North East. Labour, on the other hand, have lost their former industrial heartlands. In terms of FPTP constituencies, they now have fewer seats than the Lib Dems: only 3 to the Lib Dems' 4. Those red blotches are only 3 seats.
(The SNP is up 6 in the constituency tally. And that's why they lost regional seats: the d'Hondt arithmetic meant the Tories, whose vote share was second to the SNP overall in the lists, gained most there. The SNP couldn't gain more because of their constituency tally. In other words, broadly speaking, voting "both votes SNP" in the yellow areas in that map may have boosted the Tory tally overall).
danny la rouge
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What'll be interesting now to see is that the SNP will need the Greens to get its majorities: what will give? This calls into question exactly the areas that the SNP conferences disagreed with the SNP leadership on (as discussed above): eg land reform, income tax, council tax, and fracking.
danny la rouge
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The SNP/Tory polarisation suits the SNP (and the Tories for that matter). The SNP now gets to consolidate its position as the way you vote against the Tories in Scotland. Too weak a Scottish Tory party makes that less of a threat. Labour are now confirmed as an irrelevance in that story. It's hard to see how Labour can break out of that.The SNP should propose redrawing the England/Scotland border along the top of that blue bit
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
oh fucking boo-hoo. Christ he's an overblown drama llama.
That was a very interesting bit of film. It really was - the whole "entitled" attitude of Tom Clarke - it was so striking. And the bit where one of his tame "I will bring this journalist to visit you" constituents mentioned Keir Hardie, then it suddenly became very VERY urgent to stop the thing at once. Was quite funny. At the time, I sent the link to my Dad, and he doesn't read the "Guardian" and wouldn't have seen it otherwise. Ha! His reaction to it was quite something.
I have to confess that I am part of the bad turnout, as I did not manage to go and vote.
Not for any political reason, though.I am really pleased that Andy Wightman got elected.
heinous seamus
Perfect in an empty room
I admit I was looking at a handful of seats when I made that suggestion. Looks like a definite "anybody but the SNP" protest vote going in parts of Edinburgh though
And that's fun, because it has been a stalwart sort of thing for Labour and whoever to campaign in Glasgow on the grounds that "they (SNP) don't ever care about Glasgow or anywhere that isn't Edinburgh." Make people all feel divided, of course. Oh well.
pogofish
Testicle Hairstyle
I just realised who the Tory elected in West Aberdeenshire is - He's landed gentry to the bone and co-owner of a moderate-sized building firm plus being a member of a family with a highly "creative" relationship with the Inland Revenue.
A more stereotypical toff-Tory would be hard to find - Yegods!
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danny la rouge
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What is that a reaction to? The moron.
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Oh god. It's: "you don't even deserve independence if you won't return a majority SNP government (in a system that makes that event the exception), you ungrateful slobs", isn't it?
From the Guardian live blog thing.
'Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish secretary and Labour’s only MP in Scotland, told the World at One that voters in Scotland did not see Labour under Jeremy Corbyn as a “credible party of future government”. He told the programme:
I don’t think that the public see the UK Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn at the moment as being a credible party of future government in 2020.
That’s something, after this week’s results, we should reflect on, the leadership of the party should reflect on - and find a way of finding a strategy and a narrative that changes the perception of the UK Labour party across the United Kingdom so that we can go on and have a real shot at winning in 2020.'
'Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish secretary and Labour’s only MP in Scotland, told the World at One that voters in Scotland did not see Labour under Jeremy Corbyn as a “credible party of future government”. He told the programme:
I don’t think that the public see the UK Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn at the moment as being a credible party of future government in 2020.
That’s something, after this week’s results, we should reflect on, the leadership of the party should reflect on - and find a way of finding a strategy and a narrative that changes the perception of the UK Labour party across the United Kingdom so that we can go on and have a real shot at winning in 2020.'
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danny la rouge
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Metropolitan journalist shows how to talk about stuff you've no idea about. You just spout pish with the confidence of a public school boy who thinks he has a right to be listened to just because he's there:
danny la rouge
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equationgirl
Respect my existence or expect my resistance
I managed to get to polling station in person - my right to a postal vote having mysteriously been removed from my records. Virtually accosted by a number of random supporters outside which was quite off-putting and more of an obstruction than anything.
But again, like the last election, no candidate from any party came near the flat. Once I saw the SNP outside the station, and the people there just seemed to be annoying people and getting their way. What was different from the last election was being inundated with party political materials through the post. Except the Tories, they didn't bother.
But again, like the last election, no candidate from any party came near the flat. Once I saw the SNP outside the station, and the people there just seemed to be annoying people and getting their way. What was different from the last election was being inundated with party political materials through the post. Except the Tories, they didn't bother.
danny la rouge
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DexterTCN
Troy and Abed in the morning
Well his moronic explanation was Don’t say we didn’t tell you
At first...it seemed like a negative result. The fact is the tories came second in Scotland. It just seemed shit. Especially after the huge advances made. Fucking tories. (more in a bit)
But...over the next few days or so...more examination. 3rd term for the SNP, more votes than ever (a historic one million, we're only little), the extreme left in Glasgow humiliated and wiped out.
Labour voters are finished. The remnants are realising that a lot of their ilk voted tory, how horrible must that be for them? They have only one move to make if they want to survive up here....separation from the UK party and support independence. Pretty fucking awkward for 'scots labour the party' indeed. (the UK party could realise the big picture and cut their losses...sow seeds and all that. Highly unlikely...they'd rather have 1 seat for WM than any say up here imo. Time will tell.)
And...the icing on the cake. A tory opposition. Think about it. Think for a while about it and savour it whatever your hue...a tory opposition in Scotland for 4 more years of WM tories. It's perfect for the SNP. It's perfect for the independence supporters who put them there. It's not so good for labour.
Perfect for the Greens. A small foot in a big door, lots of possibilities for them if they play their cards right.
It was just...everyone expected more.
And then there was the backlash, obviously.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Farily brutal analysis of RISE's disaster last week (Bella Caledonia)
The comments section is no less charitable. I'll be surprised if RISE is still around come the end of the summer.
The comments section is no less charitable. I'll be surprised if RISE is still around come the end of the summer.
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