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Holyrood elections May 2021

This split the vote comment keeps getting pushed, what split, what vote?
From my brother’s point of view, I suppose he means that someone else might win the constituency vote. (Stirling, you’ll remember, in Westminster voting has been SNP, Labour and Tory). I couldn’t tell you really what his thoughts are. He won’t be pushing any message, though, as he didn’t even know the other parties existed.

I’ve not seen who is standing here (Glasgow Kelvin) but I very much doubt ISP or AFI will be fighting constituency seats. They’ll be standing as list candidates. I wouldn’t touch either with a barge pole. ISP especially.

So I haven’t decided yet what I’ll do.
 
From Twitters:

"The SNP @scotgov has published the Bill to hold #indyref2.

Scottish Parliament - not Westminster - will choose the timing.

Question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Yes/No

Over-16s, foreign nationals and refugees will have the vote."


 
Latest poll puts SNP just over the line to form a majority government. (They’re currently a minority government with ad hoc support from Greens).

SNP: 65 MSPs (+2) CON: 25 (-6) LAB: 23 (-1) LDEM: 6 (+1) GRN: 10 (+4) Chgs. w/ 2016 result 65 seats needed for a majority

 
Entirely cynical of me of course to think that the 'draft independence bill' is being published to shore up the doubters amongst the membership, rather than signal a serious intention to hold one, any time soon.

Covid management and it's fall-out will dominate the news and politicians' attention for another 12-18 months I'd say. Not much chance of anything moving before then. Indeed the British Academy published a report today, stating that the multiple impacts of COVID will be felt for a decade, possibly more.
 
I couldn’t find a nice screen grab like you, so I’m c&ping mine in Glasgow from here.


SNP
Conservative
Labour
Green
Liberal Democrat
Alba
All For Unity
Reform UK
UKIP
Abolish the Scottish Parliament
Communist Party of Britain
Freedom Alliance
Independent Green Voice
Scottish Family Party
Scottish Libertarian Party
Scottish Renew
TUSC
The Reclaim Party
Social Democratic Party
Women's Equality Party
Independents
 
Really depressing slate of nonentities in the NE Scotland list. Not a Communist or independent socialist in sight. I am something of a political anorak, but I had to google half these parties as I had literally never heard of them.


Screenshot 2021-04-02 at 12.17.33.png

There seems to be a higher Randist-per-capita count in this part of Scotland than elsewhere. It's a profoundly depressing screech from the right wing geiger counter, frankly. This is no surprise in a city where people won't talk to you if they can avoid it, and certainly won't befriend you without having known you from primary school; a city that 's permanently frightened of anything not in a golf jumper and sensible shoes.

Very predictably Salmond is top of the Alba list. Their fourth candidate, "Dot Jessiman", sounds like a forgotten Eric Linklater novel.

Amongst the chewy political gristle at the corner of the loon ecosystem we have the charming "Freedom Alliance" (anti-vaxxer bUt I WaNt tO Go sHoPpiNg party), the Scottish Renew Party (Morningside Centrist Dads know what's best for you), "Restore Scotland" (One man and his dog outfit who are both pro independence and pro Brexit), the Scottish Family Party (anti-abhortionist right wing Friedmanite / mad Christian loons), Abolish the Scottish Parliament (Rangers fans, Poppy Monomaniacs & British Legion Office Holders 4 Westminster), Galloway's mob, both Reform UK (Faragist-Ticeist) and fucking UKIP have a full slate of candidates- the Koch brothers may as well put their money in a bucket and set it on fire whilst singing Rule Britannia tbh-the Libertarian Party (ruddy faced Turriff businessmen defend their right to pay no tax ever) and whoever the "Independent Green Voice" is.

What a stinking and fetid pot-pourri of fantasists, libertarians, moralising monomaniacs, charmless right wing chancers and Bonapartists. A massive cock and balls on the list vote it is.
 
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Alba polling very low. 2% in list vote (the only place they’re standing) in this YouGov poll (tweeted by Gerry Hassan). Gives SNP a slim majority.




A ComRes for the Scotsman today gives SNP 65 MSPs, so just short of a majority (by those stats). And puts Alba on 1% in list vote.

This seems to be the overall story: SNP sitting just at the threshold for a majority, Greens up a couple of seats. Alba nowhere.
 
If you believe twitter ALBA will be holding the balance of power after the election.

It's a tragic echo of student Trots in RESPECT rambling about a situation of dual power around the time of protests against the Iraq war.
 
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