Holyrood elections May 2021

[MickiQ]

From Twitters:

"The SNP @scotgov has published the Bill to hold #indyref2.

Scottish Parliament - not Westminster - will choose the timing.

Question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Yes/No

Over-16s, foreign nationals and refugees will have the vote."

I see a showdown between Westminster and Holyrood brewing

 

[MathFabMathonwy]

Looks to be a straight up fight between SNP and Fib Dems up here in Orkney. Tory scum and Labour are running candidates for shits n giggles but neither will come close.

Current Yellow Peril bawbag Liam MacArthur, is well supported with the historical voting for Fibs up here, which is staggering considering Charmichael as the MP and his history but these inbred farmers tend to vote the way their da told them to and his da before him, etc, because Grimond was such a decent sort...

That said, the SNP candidate, Robert Leslie, is a local lad, which is half the battle, and gave a good showing against Charmichael in the last GE. It was only the Shetland votes that kept the constituency Fib Dem. Theres also been a bit of a backlash vs the corrupt / inept local council who are pretty much all closet Fibs, so that might have a positive impact for the SNP.

As a card carrying Plaid & Yes Cymru member its SNP 1&2 for me.

 

[Benjamin F]

I received through the door what I thought was a loon neo-Nazi leaflet through the door today.


It appears I wasn't far wrong.


Grandad Galloway not seemingly popular in his "home" constituency of Dumfriesshire. So far 0 posters in support of "All for Lunancy" spotted.

 

[platinumsage]

If anyone is a subscriber I take it the answer to the headline is no?

Yes Election #33: Is the First Minister in danger of losing her seat at Holyrood election?

Result in 2016: SNP 9 seats (9 constituency, 0 list), Labour 4 seats (0 constituency, 4 list), Conservatives 2 seats (0 constituency, 2 list),…

www.thenational.scot

 

[danny la rouge]

If anyone is a subscriber I take it the answer to the headline is no?

Yes Election #33: Is the First Minister in danger of losing her seat at Holyrood election?

Result in 2016: SNP 9 seats (9 constituency, 0 list), Labour 4 seats (0 constituency, 4 list), Conservatives 2 seats (0 constituency, 2 list),…

www.thenational.scot

I can’t read the article but I can see the first paragraph and the byline. It’s James Kelly, and therefore almost certainly worthless.

(He’s a Wings-fanboi blogger but in a bizarre twist, Stu Campbell personally hates him and takes everyone opportunity to pour scorn on him. No idea why. Nastiness probably).

 

[weepiper]

Seat projections from the YouGov poll just out this afternoon.

 

[danny la rouge]

Seat projections from the YouGov poll just out this afternoon.
View attachment 266414

I’d have liked to see the Tories down in the teens, and Alba on none.

 

[Sue]

I’d have liked to see the Tories down in the teens, and Alba on none.

This. I also wouldn't have cried if the Lib Dems had been decimated but...

 

[danny la rouge]

This. I also wouldn't have cried if the Lib Dems had been decimated but...

One of them used to like that.

Oh, decimated.

 

[Shechemite]

The talk from the SNP about a national care service sounds good.

 

[MrSki]

 

[danny la rouge]

Contrary to the bluster, there will be no Alba earthquake. The polling is all agreed that there’s a 50/50 chance of the SNP forming a majority. That will happen in the main by them winning most of the constituency seats. Perhaps picking up a marginal or two.

The list is where the uncertainly lies. If the SNP need a couple of list seats to get them past the 65 seat threshold, then it really is going to depend on whether they can get those in the south of Scotland or the Highlands. To that extent whether Alba is at 1 or 2% as their most pessimistic polling shows, or 4% as the most optimistic does, will determine whether the SNP gains seats in the list, because that Alba percentage will come off the SNP potentiel vote.

The Greens are showing well. They should gain seats on the list. It seems that Salmond planted the idea of spreading the pro Indy vote, but that the Greens rather than Alba have been the recipients.

Com Res for the Scotsman is the only poll showing the SNP vote falling in the constituency vote. So it will be interesting to see if they’re the only one right or the only one wrong.

On the Unionist side, Tories are slightly ahead of Labour, but also the Labour vote contains a significant proportion who say they will give their list vote to the Tories.

The Lib Dem vote is holding very low and they will be way behind the Greens in MSP numbers.

The results won’t fully be in until Saturday evening, and if the votes are as tight as it currently seems it may be Saturday afternoon before it can be called whether the SNP have an outright majority or not.

 

[Sue]

And obviously it was designed so no one party would get a majority so...

 

[brogdale]

As a soft South Londoner...can I just say...blimey!

 

[danny la rouge]

That’s me voted, like the bad anarchist I am.

 

[weepiper]

Turnout maybe quite high?

 

[weepiper]

 

[danny la rouge]

Turnout maybe quite high?

View attachment 266977

Brisk rather than high at ours I’d say.

 

[danny la rouge]

I read somewhere there’s no exit polls, so we won’t know turnout before the results come in.

 

[steeplejack]

It's huzzing it down with rain where I live and freezing cold. Like a cheerless winter afternoon in East Germany. It's been the shittest May I can ever remember.

Maybe I won't bother. The SED / Volksliste will win anyway.

 

[danny la rouge]

Wonder how many deposits Alba will lose.

“Parties that poll more than 5% of the total number of valid votes cast in the region will have their deposit returned. The deposit will also be returned if a regional list or individual regional candidate is allocated a seat, even if they have not obtained more than 5% of the valid votes cast. Otherwise the deposit is forfeited.”

 

[weepiper]

I had to queue for 15 minutes in the pissing rain and hail when I went to vote just now. Still people down to the bottom of the ramp waiting as I came out

 

[killer b]

One of them used to like that.

Oh, decimated.

Classic lib dem scat chat. It never gets old.

 

[geminisnake]

I drove down to the village to vote cos the weather has been horrid and I wasn't risking gettting hailrocked on!! (they have not been hailstones today!)

 

[steeplejack]

Interesting geminisnake...I voted after all in a sunnier part of this horrible day. Polling station dead and voting clerk said there’d only been ‘a trickle’ of voters. Quite appropriate that this ghastly election has chronic prostatitis, tbh.

 

[geminisnake]

It wasn't the usual man doing the papers, so I forgot to ask the ladies what our turnout had been like

 

[Sue]

So, predictions?

 

[weepiper]

Nicola gets Jayda Fransen and Jim Dowson telt ‘You are a racist’: Sturgeon clashes with ex-Britain First deputy | Nicola Sturgeon | The Guardian

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Nicola gets Jayda Fransen and Jim Dowson telt ‘You are a racist’: Sturgeon clashes with ex-Britain First deputy | Nicola Sturgeon | The Guardian

Hopefully she'll toddle off back down south. Is there a particular reason why she's targeting Scotland?

 

[danny la rouge]

So, predictions?

Here’s a rundown of predictions:

For SNP

Election Maps UK: 67
Ballot Box Scotland: 65
Lean Tossup: 63
Europe Elects: 63
New Statesman: 62